Mortgage rates today, Jun. 8, and rate forecast for next week

Today’s mortgage rates

Average mortgage rates climbed appreciably on Friday. It had been an excellent week for those rates before then. But that day’s jobs report wiped out almost all the earlier gains. And mortgage rates ended this week only a hair’s breadth lower than their level seven days earlier.

Mortgage rates next week are even more unpredictable than they were last. We’re due two major events next Wednesday that can potentially move mortgage rates even further than yesterday’s jobs report. But nobody knows whether they’ll be good, bad or a mixture. More below.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Since the last days of May, markets have been helping mortgage rates. They’ve focused on rate-friendly data and largely shrugged off unhelpful reports. But there was no way they could ignore yesterday’s jobs report, which was brilliant for the economy and terrible for mortgage rates.

Whether that change of mood on Wall Street will last will largely pivot on two events next Wednesday, which I’ll address below. But those would need to be very good for mortgage rates for that rate-friendly period to be extended.

But I doubt we’ll see rates falling consistently until the late summer or fall, if then. So, my overall, personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.

What’s moving current mortgage rates

A souring of investors’ mood

Friday’s jobs report was bad for mortgage rates. The Wall Street Journal (paywall) described its effect thus:

“Overall, analysts said that the hiring boost highlighted the continued resilience of the U.S. economy, which has defied expectations as businesses keep hiring, wages keep rising and consumers keep spending in the face of steeply higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation.”

All that makes it less likely that next Wednesday the Federal Reserve will pencil in cuts to general interest rates as early as it would have before the jobs report. The Journal said, " ... investors were ... focused Friday on the jobs and wage numbers, which caused many to scale back bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year.” But nobody can be sure of anything before that day’s events unfold.

Moreover, surprisingly strong rises in average hourly earnings in the jobs report may be a bad sign for the consumer price index, also due next Wednesday. We’ll dig into both that day’s events now.

Super Wednesday

Just how super Wednesday turns out to be remains to be seen. We might end up seeing it as Black Wednesday.

CPI

First comes the May consumer price index (CPI), scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern. We badly need that to show those prices falling more than markets expect.

There are four main components to the CPI. Two, called just the CPI, show the all-item index, which covers all prices in the survey. Two more show “Core” CPI, which is the same except it excludes volatile food and energy prices.

The two figures for each of those address different periods. One covers just the month of May. And the other is the year-over-year (YOY) number, which runs from Jun. 1, 2023, to May 31, 2024.

Here’s what Wall Street is expecting:

• May CPI — Rising by 0.1%, slower than April’s 0.3%
• YOY CPI — Rising by 3.4%, unchanged from April
• May core CPI — Rising by 0.3%, unchanged from April
• YOY core CPI — Rising by 3.5%, slower than April’s 3.6%

Remember, we need to see numbers lower than expected to see mortgage rates fall. Higher-than-expected figures could push those rates upward.

Fed rate announcement

The CME FedWatch tool puts the chances of general interest rates remaining unchanged at 2 p.m. Eastern next Wednesday at 97.8%. So, almost nobody’s expecting an actual rate cut that day.

What they are hoping for is a relatively upbeat assessment of the chances of such rate cuts later this year.

Of course, that wasn’t helped by Friday’s jobs report. As the Journal said, it “caused many to scale back bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year.”

Only a few months ago, investors were confidently expecting six rate cuts in 2024, while the Fed had penciled in three, with the first possibly at this next meeting or earlier. But those hopes were dashed by the strength of the economy and the persistence of inflation.

Now, many might regard even the possibility of a single rate cut in the third or fourth quarter as a win. And two penciled in (the Fed never makes promises about future rates) during that period could see mortgage rates fall. If none is likely, those rates might rise.

The Fed will be issuing a quarterly Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday. And these include its rate-setting body’s (called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)) famous dot plot.

Britannica describes the Fed dot plot as showing where: “each FOMC member thinks interest rates will be by the end of the current year, two or three (depending on the time of year) consecutive years after, and the more ambiguous ‘longer run.’ Each ‘dot’ represents a member’s individual view.”

Naturally, Wall Street puts huge value on these dot plots. They provide unique insights into where the people who actually make the decisions think general interest rates will head.

Of similarly great importance will be the news conference that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will host at 2:30 p.m. Eastern that day. Mr. Powell’s words invariably carry great weight in markets.

Next week’s other economic reports

Some other economic reports next week sometimes influence mortgage rates. But I suspect they’ll be all but entirely eclipsed by Wednesday’s events.

Still, I should mention Thursday’s producer price index (PPI) and Friday’s import price index (IPI). Like the CPI, these measure price changes. But they monitor earlier stages in the supply chain. Sometimes, markets shrug them off if a CPI has been decisive. But, even if that’s the case, they rarely move mortgage rates far or for long.

And the same applies to other reports next week, including the National Federation of Independent Business optimism survey (Tuesday), the federal budget (Wednesday), weekly jobless claims (Thursday) and the consumer sentiment index (Friday).

Summary of economic reports and events next week

See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.

In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.

• Monday — Nothing
• Tuesday — May NFIB small business optimism index
• Wednesday — May CPI. And Fed rate announcement with forecasts
• Thursday — May producer price index. Also initial jobless claims for the week ending Jun. 8
• Friday — May import price index. June consumer sentiment index.

Wednesday could set the scene for mortgage rates for months to come. It might be hugely significant.

Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you

Mortgage rates forecast for next week

Next week, mortgage rates could soar or plummet, depending on what unfolds on Wednesday. Given that I have no idea what will happen that day, I can’t predict the direction mortgage rates will take over the next seven days.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.

And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.

Your part

But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:

1. Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
2. Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
3. Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
4. Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
5. Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?

Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.

Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:

• Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
• Interest — The price of borrowing
• Taxes — Specifically property taxes
• Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance

Our mortgage calculator can help with these.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.

But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.