Mortgage and refinance rates today, Jan. 23, 2023

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates nudged higher last Friday. Still, they remain close to 6%, which is a lot better than the 6.5% where they stood at the end of 2022.

So far this morning, it’s looking as if mortgage rates today might rise modestly again. But that could change later in the day.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

At last, I’m able to change some of my personal rate lock recommendations (below). As of Saturday, those are:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• FLOAT if closing in 30 days
• FLOAT if closing in 45 days
• FLOAT if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.

Why are the first two recommendations still to lock? Because there’s too much risk of volatility to take chances so near to closing. Of course, if you’re happy with that risk, float away.

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time last Friday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 3.51% from 3.46%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were mixed soon after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices increased to $82.04 from $79.74 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices edged down to $1,917 from $1,923 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 63 from 52 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to rise. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

I explained in Saturday’s weekend edition why I just changed my rate lock recommendations (above). Briefly, it was a result of remarks made last week by members of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Seven of the committee’s 12 members spoke publicly during that time. And five of those who did expressed support for a small 0.25% (25-basis-point) rate hike on Feb. 1.

This makes it much more likely than I’d previously feared that the Fed will moderate the pace, scale and duration of its interest rate rises. And that could be good news for mortgage rates.

But please note that I said “more likely.” Nothing’s certain at the moment. Some of the most powerful voices in the FOMC support taking a more hawkish (aggressive) line on interest rates. And they could yet persuade some of the committee’s “doves” to maintain that line.

This isn’t the first time I’ve changed my rate lock recommendations over the last year. And, the last time, I had to change them back within a matter of days when my reasons for optimism evaporated. Let’s hope these new amendments last longer.

This week

With luck, mortgage rates might be in for a quiet start to this week. But there are a couple of blockbuster economic reports on Thursday and Friday that just might (but probably won’t) upset things.

The first, chronologically, is the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) growth during the last quarter of 2022. Ideally, the Fed would like to see that growth slowing because that might indicate that its rate hikes are doing what they were intended to do. Mortgage rates might fall if that’s the case.

The second report is the personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) price index, due on Friday. And that is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation.

Chances are, the PCE price index will reflect the other big inflation report this month, the consumer price index (CPI). And that showed price rises slowing, something that’s good for mortgage rates.

But you never know what these reports are going to say until they land. So important ones like these always pose a risk to mortgage rates.

For more background on mortgage rates, please read the latest weekend edition of this daily rates report.

Recent trends

According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.

Freddie’s Jan. 19 report put that same weekly average at 6.15%, down from the previous week’s 6.33%.

In November, Freddie stopped including discount points in its forecasts. It has also delayed until later in the day the time at which it publishes its Thursday reports. And, from now on, we'll be updating this section on Fridays.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts — updated today

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/22) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23 and Q3/24).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s and the MBA’s forecasts appeared on Jan. 20. Freddie’s was published on Oct. 21. Freddie now publishes its forecasts quarterly and its figures can quickly become stale.

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.