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The Mortgage Rate Prediction For The Next 7 Days (July 8, 2010)

Posted on July 15, 2010
Filed under Rate Surveys

Looking to lock a mortgage rate? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Forecast Only

By way of disclosure, these mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages only. FHA streamline refinances are not covered, nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati, Ohio or Bethesda, Maryland, for example. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Florida, condotels in Chicago, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

Mortgage rate predictions for Cincinnatifor a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate predictions for the next week:

  • 55% predict mortgage rates will increase
  • 5% predict mortgage rates will decrease
  • 40% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching the reason Auto-Tune was invented. It's a double rainbow. OMG.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The 3-month rally in rates continues (until there's reason for it to end)."

Mortgage rates have been dropping since early-April. Why stop now?

Mortgage Rates Are Falling In Cincinnati. Still.

Next verse, same as the last verse. We've been talking mortgage rates falling for 3 months now.

Here's why it's happening. Mortgage rates are low, not because the housing market is strong, or because the U.S. economy is thriving, but because other nations are struggling and investors want to preserve their capital.

It's called "safe-haven buying". In uncertain times, investors shun risk and move cash to higher-quality assets.

The goal of safe haven buying is capital preservation. A small, safe return trumps the risk of losing it all. Almost like lemmings, investors have decided that the "safe" place to invest right now is in debt backed by the U.S. government. This includes mortgage-backed bonds, of course, which are the basis for conforming mortgage rates.

With the extra demand, bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall. This cycle continues until bond rates get too low for investors to want to buy them. At that point, the market usually reverses for the worse and rates rise.

If You Press Your Luck, You're Bound To Get Whammied

Low rates can't last forever. They just can't.

Today is not "the new normal" -- don't fool yourself into thinking it is. Someday, our children will study the Summer of 2010 in their finance books. What we're witnessing is unprecedented and unlikely to repeat.

Just like folks get nostalgic for the 80s and say, "Remember when you felt lucky to get a 16% mortgage rate?" with a laugh, they'll do the same about 2010. "Remember when rates were in the 4s?"

I mean, srsly, people.  The fours.  What are you waiting for?

In the last few days, "ideal" borrowers have seen their 5-year ARM pricing fall below 3.500 percent with 0 points; the 30-year fixed pricing below 4.375 percent. Really.

If the thought of a refinance has even crossed your mind, talk to your loan officer and get the math. No matter how long you've held your mortgage, there's a pretty good chance that a refinance can:

  1. Lower your mortgage rate by a lot
  2. Lower your mortgage payment substantially
  3. Keep your out-of-pocket costs low

Just don't sit on it. Mortgage markets change rapidly, and without notice. We've seen big, quick rate spikes several times already this year and it could definitely happen again.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. Rates will fall in the next week, but by how much really? Don't be greedy. Be smart.

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Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

Tags: Bankrate. com, Double Rainbow, Freddie Mac, Happy Days, mortgage rates, Press Your Luck

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