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Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rates Only

The fine print: These mortgage rate predictions are based on the price of Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-issued mortgage-backed securities. MBS pricing is responsible for rates in Cincinnati, Ohio; Lake Forest, IL; and everywhere else you can get a conforming, conventional mortgage.

These predictions do not cover FHA streamline refinances because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, "special" loans like non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with more than 4 mortgages are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 24% think mortgage rates will increase
• 24% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 52% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this Indian Pole Dancing video, screaming "OMG" over and over.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Rates reach resistance this week. It's a good time to lock."

Mortgage rates are leveling. It's a signal to get locked.

Mortgage Rate Rally Reaches 19 Weeks

It's a Refi Boom. Mortgage rates are dropping.  By a lot.  And have been for some time now.  Heck, if you're willing to pay a point or two, you can get a 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the 3s; ARMs are drifting into the 2s.

It's ridiculous out there and homeowners are loving it! None of this was supposed to happen, after all.  Starting in April, mortgage rates were supposed to rise, remember.  But they didn't.  And Americans are reaping the benefits of a 5-month mortgage market rally.

However, all good things must come to an end and that goes for this Refi Boom, too. Mortgage rates have troughed; essentially unchanged, unable to cut resistance. And, looking back 2 weeks, mortgage bonds have moved more on a day-to-day basis than what's been normal.

It tells us that, although markets may be trading favorably for mortgage rates, Wall Street is pretty unsure of what it's doing and where rates are at.

Therefore, one of 2 things happens from here:

1. Wall Street collectively decides mortgage rates should be lower, and rates fall
2. Wall Street collectively decides mortgage rates should be higher, and rates rise

The problem is that rates can't really fall much further.  They have plenty of room to rise, though.

Rates Rose 1.125% In Just 10 Days Last Year

Today's mortgage market is reminiscent of last May's. At the time, after some Fed intervention and a run of poor economic data, mortgage rates had made all-time lows and a mini Refi Boom had started.

At first, Wall Streeters piled into mortgage bonds as a safety play. Then, they did it as a profit play.  And then -- like what always happens -- something spooked the banks. They couldn't sell their stuff fast enough.

Over the course of 10 days, mortgage rates rose 1.125 percent and the Refi Boom was over. It's how this Refi Boom will end, too.  Quickly, and with force. So don't be greedy and wait for lower rates.  You may get them, but what if you don't?

There's A Fine Line Between Prudent And Stupid

To be plain about it -- if you own a home with a mortgage, talk to somebody about a refinance.  And by "somebody", I don't mean your neighbor or your sister.  Talk to a loan officer; somebody who can show you numbers and math.

Do you refi research, plan to limit your closing costs, and keep your options open for the future. That's the best way to play it right now.  And if you don't have a loan officer, call or and I'll walk you through what to do. I'll also get you pricing for your loan and explain how "zero-cost" mortgages can work in your favor in markets like these.

Either way, rates are stupid low right now. Don't miss a chance to do something about it. .

Home prices are rising, says the news. But are they really?  The cited data may be too old to be relevant.

Case-Shiller Index Says Monthly Home Values Up 5% in June

According to the Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Index, home values rose 5 percent in June versus the month prior, and 4 percent from a year earlier.

It’s the 16th consecutive month in which Case-Shiller reported an increase in home values and the third straight month of outstanding results.  On paper, the figures look great, but homeowners and home buyers in Cincinnati area would do well to temper their Case-Shiller enthusiasm.

For a few reasons, really.

The Obvious Flaws In The Case-Shiller System

The Case-Shiller Index is accurate, and imperfect. There's several reasons why we have to look deeper than the headlines.

First, Case-Shiller releases data on 60-day delay and, over the last 60 days, housing data has been lackluster at best.

• Existing Home Sales are down 27 percent
• New Home Sales are down 12 percent
• Homebuilder confidence is down

Knowing what the housing market did on June 30 has as little relevance as knowing what the weather report was from that day.  You can't apply the data from 2 months ago to make an informed decision today.

June is ancient real estate history to buyers and sellers in Cincinnati.

And, second, the Case-Shiller Index is not "local".  It's a composite of 20 cities, none of which are in Southeastern Ohio. Neither Cincinnati, Dayton, nor Columbus make the list, rendering the data somewhat useless to local folks anyway.

Click here for better, truly local real-time real estate data in Cincinnati.

Case-Shiller Is Good For Economists, Bad For Consumers

The Case-Shiller Index isn't all bad. After all, it's "good" data.  It's just delayed and general.  That's fine if you're an economist or policy-maker in need of clues on housing, but it ain't no good if you're trying to make a buy or sell decision.

For that, you need your real estate stats to be more better.

And then, when you've found a home and it's time for your mortgage, give me a call or .

(Post adapted from Bring the Blog, a blogging service for real estate and mortgage pros)

Each Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes a "national" mortgage rate in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey.  Nevermind its flawed methodology -- the Freddie Mac survey does an excellent job of showing whether mortgage rates are rising or falling.

Since early-April, rates are down and down big.

A 4-Month Rally In Mortgage Rates

Going back 18 weeks, week after week, the story is the same. Mortgage rates are falling and making new, all-time lows. You can't open the paper or watch the news without hearing about it.

As for why it's happening, the logic is pretty basic. When the economy hits a rough patch, or when uncertainty rides high, investors prefer to put money somewhere safe and bonds backed by the U.S. government fit the bill.  The U.S. government has never defaulted on debt and its backing is considered a guarantee of repayment. Ergo, U.S. government-backed debt is "riskless".

When investors move into government debt, it's often called a "flight to quality". Mortgage bonds gain on it.  This is because mortgage-backed bonds have the implicit backing of the U.S. government and are considered "safe".

The added demand leads bonds prices higher and, because bond yields move opposite of price, mortgage rates lower.

On April 8, 2010, the average, 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.21% -- the high point for 2010.  Since then, however, fears of a renewed recession and general economic malaise have contributed to an ongoing, seemingly-endless rally. There's been very little "good news" to reverse the slide, the constant negativity helped to lower mortgage rates by almost an entire percentage point.

Not since ever have conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rates been this low in Cincinnati.

The Falling Cost Of A 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

Today's low rates have reduced the long-term cost of ownership by a lot.

To validate the math, we look at the interest paid over the life of a loan, plus its upfront costs (i.e. "points"). Naturally, the higher the interest rate, the more expensive the loan's long-term cost.

Comparing 1994 to today:

• In 1994, at interest rates of 9.375%, it cost $900,000 to repay off a $300,000 loan
• In 2010, at interest rates of 4.250%, it costs $540,000 to repay off a $300,000 loan

That's a three-hundred-sixty-thousand dollar difference in just 16 years.  And, 1994 isn't that long ago, either.  There's plenty of people in Cincinnati who've lived in their same home for 16 years. If these same people bought a home today -- at today's rates -- the cost of homeownership would be 38% less. That's huge.

Furthermore, as compared to May 1, 2010 -- the day after the $8,000 federal home buyer tax credit expired -- today's cost of carrying a 30-year fixed rate mortgage to term is lower by $45,500.

That's irony right there.

Mortgage Rates Are Low. Lock In Already.

When we talk about home affordability, it's stuff like this; long-term mortgage costs are down; home values are troughed; lumber and labor are cheap.  It's an excellent time to buy or build a home, all things relative.

It's also an excellent time to refinance.  If you bought a home between 2006 and the early-2010, you should really look at rates vis-a-vis your loan term costs of ownership. Not every family will save 38% long-term on their mortgage, but some of you will.

Get a free, no-obligation quote on your mortgage, .  Or, call me.  I answer my calls and answer all my own emails.

Mortgage rates change all the time so that 4.250 30-year fixed rate might not be available for you if you wait. Therefore, if it makes financial sense to refinance today, do it.

With home prices in gentle recovery and mortgage rates continuing to fall, home affordability is cresting in Ohio, and nationwide.

Mortgage Rates Drive Down Homeownership Costs

According to the Home Opportunity Index, more than 72 percent of homes sold between April-June 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income.  The data is tracked by the National Association of Home Builders.

It's the second highest reading in the survey's history.

The data shouldn't come as a surprise because of how home affordability is calculated -- it's based on the combination of home prices and mortgage rates.  Home prices, as we know, were battered in the latter part of last decade and are only now making a modest recovery.

Mortgage rates, on the other hand, have been steadily dropping.  In the same April-June 2010 time period, conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell by 1/2 percent.

A half-percent drop in mortgage rates saves homeowners $1,085 annually, assuming a $250,000 mortgage.

Where Homes Are "Most Affordable"

Like everything real estate-related, though, home affordability varies by locale.

For example, 97.2% of homes sold in Syracuse were affordable for families making the area's median income which earning the New York city its first "Most Affordable Major City" designation.  Indianapolis was the first quarter winner.

Here in Ohio, homes were especially affordable, too:

• Dayton : 92.8% of homes are "affordable"; 28th nationally
• Cincinnati : 88.4% of homes are "affordable"; 46th nationally
• Columbus : 88.1% of homes are "affordable"; 47th nationally

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the "Least Affordable Major City" title went to the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ area for the 9th consecutive quarter.  Just 19.9% of homes are affordable to families earning the local median income.

Chicago ranked 175th.

The rankings for all 225 metro areas are viewable on the NAHB website.

When It's Time To Buy, You'll Need A Pre-Approval Letter

All things considered, buying a home may never be this inexpensive again. If you were planning to purchase later this year, or sometime in 2011, you may want to consider move up your time frame.  And you're going to need a pre-approval letter.

To get a mortgage application in-process or to see for how much you'd qualify, . I answer all my owns emails and am happy to get you started.

(This post adapted from Bring the Blog, a blog-publishing service for loan officers and real estate agents.)

Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Rates For Conforming Mortgages Only

The fine print: These mortgage rate predictions are based on the price of Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-issued mortgage-backed securities. MBS pricing is responsible for rates in Cincinnati, Ohio; Lake Forest, IL; and everywhere else you can get a conforming, conventional mortgage.

On the other hand, these predictions do not cover FHA streamline refinances because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, "special" loans like non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 50% think mortgage rates will increase
• 30% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 20% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent learning when to use "i.e." and when to use "e.g.".

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"An object in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force. This week, there's no such force. Rates continue downward."

Finally -- physics and economics converge.

Mortgage Rate Rally Reaches 18 Weeks

Week after week, it's been the same story.  Mortgage rates retreat and make new, all-time lows. It's been like this since April.

If you'll remember, there was high hopes for the U.S. economy at the time.  Housing was in repair, spending was on the rise, and confidence was booming.  Wall Street was pouring into stocks and the bond market was prepared for the after-effects of the Fed's withdrawal from mortgage bonds.

It was April 8, 2010, and the average, 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.21%.

And then, things went sideways.

First, Eyjafallajökull erupted in Iceland and disrupted the European economy.  Next, Greece sovereign debt problems emerged.  Then, U.S. jobs data failed to show spark, among other economic disappointments. The stock market rally slowed. The bond market rally began.

And, since that time, there's been no real news to slow the flow of money into mortgage bonds, and that's what's pushing mortgage rates lower each week. It's Newton's First Law of Motion As Applied To Mortgage Rates.

Until there's a force to reverse the flow of rates, pricing will continue to improve.

The Reality Check : Rates Are Only Falling 0.03% Per Week

See, here's the thing.  When mortgage rates first started dropped, the week-to-week changes were pretty big.  10 basis points here, 15 basis points there -- it added up pretty quickly.

Since July 1, though, deltas are smaller.

Over the past 8 weeks, on average, mortgage rates have only improved by 3 basis points per week. That's a slow drip, my friends, and it's creating confusion among the people that have already joined the Refi Boom.

See, according to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates keep making new lows week after week. And, technically, it's true. Mortgage rates have made new lows 6 weeks in a row. But -- and it's a big but -- when we add up the improvements to rate over the last six weeks, we see that it only adds up to 1/8 percent.

Rates dropping 1/8 percent in 6 weeks is nothing to write home about.

That tidbit should appease any homeowners with loans in-process who feel like they locked "too soon".  Rates are essentially the same today as they've been for 2 months. The only difference is that the press is giving wall-to-wall coverage which makes it seem like rates have really dropped.  They haven't.

Rather, it's homeowners that haven't joined the Refi Boom that should get moving.

Rates May Drop, But It's Time To Lock-In Anyway

The consistent, gradual decline in mortgage rates is rapidly filling mortgage underwriter pipelines and bogging down the appraisal process. This leads to longer mortgage approval times which, in turn, necessitates longer rate locks.

Longer rate locks mean higher loan costs.  Ergo, don't sit back and wait another week.  Rate should fall by another few basis points, but you'll more than that in closing costs.

To give an application and get locked, call my office at 513-443-2020. It'll be 4-minute call and I'll get a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. Or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

At first glance, the July Existing Home Sales report was atrocious. Sales volume fell to 15-year lows, home supplies jumped 40 percent, and the press is beating the point to a pulp.

But, depending on your home's price tier, though, the news may not be so bad.  The real estate market is a tale of two price tiers.

Luxury Homes Recovering; First-Time Homes Flailing

For homeowners with property worth $1 million or more, the real estate market improved in July.  There's a number of reasons for this, and most of them are consistent with "an improving economy".

To make this argument, though, we must first make a very important assumption; that Americans buying homes worth $1,000,000 or more fall into one of four categories:

1. Holder of a large amounts of assets which makes annuity payments
2. Corporate-level executive with large salary
3. Highly-commissioned salesperson
4. Owner (or part-owner) or a highly-grossing business or practice

I make these assumptions because, as a loan officer, I know them to be mostly true. A homeowner will be approved for a mortgage without verifiable income and a $1,000,000 mortgage requires roughly $250,000 in adjusted gross income, assuming ordinary debts and deductions.

Now, although the economy is short on jobs and tight on credit, business spending has been improving for months.   The Fed has been highlighting this fact in its FOMC press releases, and just last quarter, business spending jumped 22 percent. And when businesses buy, corporations make money and salespersons get commissioned.

Just think. The Wynn in Las Vegas is remodeling 2,716 hotel rooms. That's a lot of purchasing and a lot of people are going to see bigger paychecks because of it. Bigger paychecks means more confidence in the future and a greater willingness to buy a new home.

Unfortunately, economics like this rarely trickle-down.

For Americans that don't directly benefit from business spending, therefore, Existing Home Sales data is worsening, relative.  Sales volume in the "starter home" categories are way down from June.  This is partly the result of the post-tax credit normalization, but also attributable to a dearth of W-2, salaried jobs.

Homeowners with property worth less than $1 million are seeing sales volume fall and sales supply rise. Home prices may start to lag within this price range.

Jumbo Mortgages Are Aiding The Luxury Home Markets

Coincidentally, the luxury housing is benefiting from the return of the jumbo mortgage market. It's a lot easier to buy a home when there's financing available for it.

Since mid-May, jumbo mortgage rates on ARMs have come way down, and financing has opened up in the 30-year fixed and 15-year fixed arena.  Downpayment requirements are loosening, too.

Just six months ago, you might have needed 30% downpayment at minimum to get a competitive mortgage rate on $1 million or more.  Today, it's 20 percent.

Furthermore, underwriting guidelines are loosening around credit scores, asset requirements, and loan purpose.

Overall, it's simpler to qualify for jumbo mortgages than in recent quarters.  This may be another reason why the luxury home market is thriving.

Your Bank May Not Offer Jumbo Mortgages

Jumbo loans are available, but that doesn't mean that every bank will offer them, or assign them competitive interest rates.  Make at least two calls before you settle on a particular rate-and-program because fees will vary. Then, if your bank makes you pay a point, .

You should be able to get excellent rates without points in the jumbo market right now. Remember -- each point equals 1 percent of your loan size.  Or, in the case of a $1 million loan, $10,000 in fees.

Reach out anytime. I answer my own emails and will help you with your jumbo loan.

When a bank makes a fixed-rate, principal + interest mortgage, a borrower's monthly payments is calculated using the principles of amortization (ah-mor-ti-ZAY-shun).

With respect to mortgages, amortization is the process of paying a loan to $0 over time.

The Early Years Of A Mortgage Are Interest-Loaded

For homeowners, a mortgage amortization schedule's most important trait is how it renders mortgage payments interest-heavy at the start. There is very little principal that's goes back to the bank each month.

If you've ever looked at your mortgage statement after a few years and thought, "I haven't paid this thing down a bit!", it's because of amortization. Amortization schedules are decidedly "bank-friendly".

At today's rates, it would take 20 years to reduce the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage's amount owed by half.

Having said that, amortization schedules can benefit to homeowners, too. Because mortgage interest is often tax-deductible, the early, interest-heavy years of a loan can provide larger tax benefits than the loan's later years.

Furthermore, an amortization schedule can be accelerated with "extra" mortgage payments.  Years can be shaved off a loan's life with just some basic planning.

Comparing Mortgage Payback Schedules

Here's some stats. Comparing different $300,000 loans at a mortgage rate of 5 percent, after 10 years:

• A 15-year mortgage balance is reduced by 58 percent
• A 20-year mortgage balance is reduced by 38 percent
• A 30-year mortgage balance is reduced by 19 percent

After 15 years of payback, the numbers look similarly disproportionate:

• A 15-year mortgage is paid in full
• A 20-year mortgage balance is reduced by 65 percent
• A 30-year mortgage balance is reduced by 32 percent

And, meanwhile, depending on interest rates, amortization schedules will be skewed in more, or less, in favor of the bank. Higher rates increase the interest payments; lower rates increase the principal payback.

Today's low rates favor the homeowner.

Get A Personal Amortization Schedule For Your Mortgage

Amortization is tricky, but it's easy to make sense of the final numbers once you're looking at them.

If you've got an existing mortgage and want to see what extra monthly payments will do to your payback period, or want to know how to keep your "payoff period" on track after a refinance, .

I answer all my own emails and am happy to help.

Mortgage rates are stupid low and that's why this is a Refi Boom. But when it comes to refinancing your home -- or buying one -- there's more than rates to focus on.  You've got to watch fees, too, and depending where you live, closing costs can be expensive.

What Are Mortgage Closing Costs?

Mortgage "closing costs" is the sum of all charges related to a new mortgage.  In general, these charges are grouped into two categories, labeled on a Good Faith Estimate as "Origination Charges" and "Third-Party Fees", respectively.

The category "Origination Charges" includes any fee paid directly to the lender at the time of closing.  Origination Charges include costs such as underwriting fees, application fees and processing fees. It may also include origination points, discount points, and broker fees.

These individual elements have different names from lender-to-lender so don't get hung up on what they're called. Origination Charges are fees paid to the lender.  Period.

By contrast, "Third-Party Fees" are fees paid to parties other than the lender.  Third-party fees include the costs of appraisals, credit reports, settlement fees and title searches.

When comparing mortgages, third-party fees should usually be ignored. This is because most third-party fees are fixed-price offerings with little room for variance (i.e. government stamps, recording fees). Because they're fixed-fee, these types of costs will be identical no matter which lender with which you choose to work.

As a side note, escrow reserves and per diem interest are not closing costs. They are "prepaid items" and do not apply to a discussion on closing costs.

Closing Costs Aren't Necessarily Higher, Just More Accurately Disclosed

According to its annual Closing Cost survey, Bankrate.com shows typical closing costs around the country higher by 37 percent from 2009.  That's a huge jump, but the breakdown is even more revealing.

Versus 2009, origination charges are up 23 percent to $1,463.  Third-party fees, on the hand, are up 47 percent.

There's several reasons for the disparity and most of it ties back to government regulation that went into effect January 1, 2010.

As part of the amended Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, loan originators are now bound to the accuracy of their respective Good Faith Estimates.  To protect consumers from low-balled Good Faith Estimates and worse, the law slapped a 10% tolerance zone on most fees quoted therein.

If the "final" fee varies by more than 10% from the original "estimate", the loan originator must absorb the cost. The "mistake" cannot be charged to the borrower.  This change has spurred loan officers to get more accurate with their GFEs which may be one reason why charges appear to be higher -- especially the third-party ones.

In the past, it was common to see mortgage companies purposely understate third-party fees to make their own Good Faith Estimates look more attractive.  That's not possible now.

A second reason why closing costs appear higher is that RESPA reform also requires new levels of disclosure and compliance and these changes come at a cost to the banks.  The costs are being passed on to consumers in the Origination Charges section.

In other words, it's not that closing costs are necessarily higher by 37 percent as Bankrate.com is telling us.  What's more likely is that costs are up modestly, and are more accurately disclosed.

How To Reduce Your Closing Costs

The good thing about closing costs is that they're negotiable, in some respects.  You can't avoid paying underwriting fees or taxes to the government, for example, but you can arrange to have loan costs paid on your behalf.

It's called a "zero-cost mortgage".

A zero-cost mortgage is exactly what it sounds like -- it's a mortgage in which all closing costs are paid by the lender instead of the borrower. Loan sizes don't increase and nothing is "rolled in".  It's a true no-cost loan.  However, there is a trade-off.  In order to have your closing costs waived in full, you'll be asked to accept a higher mortgage rate than the "market" rate.

For larger loan sizes, the bump to interest rate is usually about a quarter-percent; for smaller sizes, it's about a half.

Zero-cost mortgages are excellent in a falling interest rate environment because they limit sunk costs to zero, and because they offer an immediate payback.  Not every bank will offer them, though.  Waterstone Mortgage does.

If you'd like to see the math on a zero-cost mortgage, . I'm happy to talk to you about it.

Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Predictions Only

First, the fine print. These mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages in Cincinnati, Ohio; Potomac, Maryland; and everywhere else.

FHA streamline refinances are not covered because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with 5 to 10 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 47% think mortgage rates will increase
• 6% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 47% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent playing The Lying Down Game.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"After a brief pause, rates resume sliding."

I am the only survey participant calling for a drop in rates this week so heads-up.

The Long-Term Trend Of Falling Rates

Looking back to mid-April, mortgage rates have been falling. It's been a gradual shift. So gradual, in fact, that most people weren't even aware that a Refi Boom had started until it was 10 weeks old.

Between April and early-July, mortgage rates cut new lows nearly every week.

And, we can't lose sight of why rates fell every week because, fundamentally, nothing has changed in the economy since. You could even make an argument that today's economy is more conducive to low rates than from April.  The jobs market has been slow to rebound, home values are stagnating, and global economies remain shaky.

Even the Federal Reserve adjusted its expectations lower.

And, why have mortgage rates dropped so far these past few months? Because there's no reason for them to do anything else. The mortgage bond markets set the tone for mortgage rates and bonds have been in rally mode.

Think of it like physics -- an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by outside force. And, right now, there's no outside force to act on mortgage rates.  Until there is, rates should continue to slide.

The trend is your friend.

The Subtle Signals That Change May Be Coming

Now, there's a caveat in this inertia argument. Although mortgage rates are sliding, there comes a point where that "outside force" shows up. Sometimes, it comes unannounced (i.e. change in government policy, terrorism); most times, it can be forecast.

If the bond markets were meteorological, the Doppler radar would show threats to low rates in the vicinity.

• The VIX Index is elevated
• Mortgage bonds are carving out wide ranges daily
• 5-month bond rallies are relatively uncommon

Therefore, despite low rates, now is probably not the time to sit back and see what happens.  Don't be greedy.

Rates May Drop, But It's Time To Lock-In Anyway

Mortgage rates are really, really low. Take the bird-in-hand. Get started on that refi.

To give an application and get locked, call my office at 513-443-2020. It'll be 4-minute call and I'll get a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. Or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

It's a Refi Boom and you're among the millions of homeowners trying to snare a low rates while they last.

Thing is, though, when rates are this low, the hard part of a refinance isn't locking the low rate. Low rates are easy to lock. The hard part is closing on the low rate before its rate lock expires.

Life Imitates TV. People Can Only Work So Fast.

If you're refinancing your home right now -- or even thinking about it -- watch this I Love Lucy video.  It's an (imperfect) metaphor for what's happening in mortgage underwriting offices as volume grows.

As you're watching the video, think of:

• Lucy and Ethel as mortgage underwriters
• Chocolates as mortgage applications

It doesn't take much for the girls in the Wrapping Department to get overwhelmed. Two people can only do so much.

Mortgage Underwriting Is Backing Up

Relating to mortgages, with each day that 30-year fixed rates stay below 4.500 percent, and that 15-year fixed rates stay below 4.000 percent, new mortgage applications find their way onto the metaphorical underwriting conveyor belt.

Underwriters are getting backed up. Quickly. And now, most banks are "suggesting" that loans come with 45-day locks at minimum. A 45-day rate lock is more expensive than a 30-day rate lock, of course.

If low rates persist, soon, 60-day locks may be mandatory and that's even more costly.

Get Low Rates And Keep Loan Costs Low

Loans don't get to underwriting these days without a complete supporting paperwork and an appraisal. Therefore, if you've just started the steps of a refinance, or plan to, make sure you're on the ball.

Gather your W-2s, your paystubs and tax returns; return phone calls from your lender promptly; and, most important, let the appraiser in your home as soon as you possibly can.

If you can do these things, your application will be the first chocolate on the belt and not the last. It's the best way to close on your loan quickly.  And closing quickly saves you money.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate Now

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

It's time to make a move -- the underwriting backup started last week. .

Defining "All Real Estate Is Local"

There's an old saying that goes "All Real Estate Is Local".

In a nutshell, it means that real estate markets are different depending on where you live. Now, you could interpret that to mean real estate markets are different from region-to-region (e.g. West vs. Northeast), or from state-to-state (e.g. Ohio vs. Illinois), or even from city-to-city (e.g. Cincinnati vs. Columbus).

The true meaning of "All Real Estate Is Local", though, gets more granular.

Because of school district boundaries, public services, and local zoning laws, "All Real Estate Is Local" means that real estate markets are unique even from block-to-block.

As an exercise on how this works in real life, look at the six images above.

Notice how each of the six photos at top has its own vibe, its own character and its own flavor.  Allow these photos to represent different neighborhoods in your area.  Some are dog-heavy, some have families, some are hip.  Some slant young, some slant old, and some are blurry.

Each photo -- like each neighborhood it's meant to represent -- is unique and distinct.

The National Real Estate Mosaic

Now, look at the image below.

If you examine this photo closely, you'll spot your six neighborhoods in there. You'll see that there's one in the sky; another in the grass; another in the For Sale sign, and so on.  The picture at which you're looking, in fact,  is comprised of literally thousands of tiny "neighborhoods", each serving as a tile in the larger photomosaic.

And it's a terrific analogy for how we tend to get our real estate news -- we see the "big picture" and never the details.

We Don't Live In 50 States At The Same Time

How do you get your real estate news?  From the AP press wire? From newspapers?  From business television?

Each of these sources report on the mosaic, featuring stories about "soft housing" in America and "a growing number of foreclosures", but in the Carpenter's Run complex in Blue Ash, Ohio, the reality may be the exact opposite.

See, for homeowners and home buyers, getting that "whole picture" from CNBC is every bit as useless as Al Roker saying the national temperature is 83 degrees. None of us live in all 50 states at the same time.

Homes exists in one place and one place only; as a tiny square on the face of the national real estate market.  And when we say "All Real Estate Is Local", this is what we mean. Each market has its own characteristics which drive home values, buyer activity, and average days on market.

You can't get that kind of news from TV -- you can only get it from a local source.

Do You Want Local Real Estate Data? Find Your Best Source.

When you're buying or selling a home, you need good data.  Period.  There's no substitute for local market data and real-time reports.  The good news is that there's data available and it's usually free.

For Cincinnatians, there's excellent data at http://cincinnatirealestatemarketstats.com.  But, if you live somewhere else, don't sweat it --  just . I've been in this business a long time and have met some excellent real estate agents around the country.

Ask me for a referral -- I'm happy to make one.

For the second time in 4 months, the FHA is changing the way it charges mortgage insurance. The change is forcing homeowners and home buyers using FHA financing to make a monetary decision -- use the current system for FHA mortgage insurance, or to wait for the new one to take effect?

The answer roots in mathematics, but first, some FHA background.

How FHA-Insured Mortgages Work

Most people forget -- the FHA is not in the business of making loans to homeowners. Rather, the FHA insure loans that lenders make to borrowers. The FHA puts out a set of guidelines says to banks that "so long as your borrowers meets these requirements, we will insure the loans you make to them."

Now, banks don't expect their FHA-backed loans to go bad, but when their loans default, the FHA steps in and makes payment on them similar to how any insurance-type company would operate.  And, to fund these claims, the FHA uses its insured borrowers' own money.

Homeowners backed by the FHA pay into the FHA insurance fund in two ways:

1. With a one-time, upfront payment at closing called Upfront MIP
2. With an monthly, pro-rated annual payment called Annual MIP

Mortgage insurance premiums kick off a lot of money and the FHA has been self-funded for years without issue.  However, as FHA home loan defaults have climbed recently, so have insurance payouts to lenders.  It's put a ginormous strain on the FHA's solvency.

For example, in September 2008, the FHA held $19 billion in reserves. Today, that number is $3 billion.

In the FHA's own words, the groups reserves are "perilously low".

Summarizing The FHA Mortgage Insurance Changes

As a means to help refill its coffers, therefore, the FHA is changing its upfront and annual mortgage insurance premium structure.  It's the second tweak of 2010 and the changes apply to FHA case numbers issued on or after October 4, 2010.

Under the updated mortgage insurance program, assuming a 30-year fixed rate FHA mortgage with at least 5 percent equity:

• Upfront MIP drops to 1.000% of the amount borrowed from 2.250%
• Annual MIP increases to 0.850% of the amount borrowed from 0.500%

For homeowners using an FHA-insured mortgage, the upfront cost of the loan will drop by a lot, but the long-term costs of the loan will grow.

Using a $200,000 mortgage as an example, upfront MIP falls to $3,000 from $7,750; monthly MIP jumps to $212.50 from $125.00.  The FHA expects the change to yield an additional $300 million in premiums monthly.

Work The Change In FHA Premiums To Your Advantage

Homeowners wanting an FHA-insured mortgage should remember the October 4, 2010 implementation date.

If your FHA case number is assigned on, or after, that date, you will get the 1 percent upfront cost + the 85 basis points each year thereafter. If it's assigned prior to, you'll get the 2.25 percent + 50 basis points.

Or, simplified:

• Current system : Big upfront costs, low long-term costs
• New system : Low upfront costs, big long-term costs

So which is best, then?  It depends on your timeline.

The mathematical break-even point on the current FHA system versus the new one is Month 43. If you know you'll sell or refinance in fewer than 3 years, 7 months, you should wait to start your mortgage application until after the October 4, 2010 changeover.

On the other hand, if this is your "last home for life", give that application as soon as possible!

The math works for all loan sizes, too -- from $75,000 all the way up to the FHA loan limits for your area.

Start Your FHA Home Loan Application Online

If you’re unsure of how FHA mortgage premiums work, or how the change will affect your payments, etc, just . I answer all of my own emails and will get back to you quickly.

NOTE : The FHA originally announced an implementation date of September 7. That date was later amended to October 4, 2010.

Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Predictions Only

First, the fine print. These mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages nationwide -- including Cincinnati, Ohio; Potomac, Maryland; and everywhere else.

FHA streamline refinances are not covered because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded. Same for pay day loans.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 40% think mortgage rates will increase
• 13% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 47% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent researching the HPOA Hoax.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The Fed set rates back on a downward trajectory."

I'm changing my tune. Mortgage markets are not about to rise. I see them staying at least flat for now.

The Fed Doesn't Make Rates (But It Does Influence)

This mortgage blog wastes a lot of ink on how the Federal Reserve doesn't make mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are made on the mortgage-backed securities market, then "adjusted for consumption" based on Fannie Mae's LLPA rulebook.

The Fed has nothing to do with mortgage rates. At least, not directly. Indirectly, it turns out, the Fed has a lot to do with mortgages.

As the nation's central banker, what the Federal Reserve says -- and what the Federal Reserve does -- ripples through the economy's every nook and cranny. Nothing is unaffected by the Fed and that includes the world of mortgages. So, when the Fed says things like the economy "has slowed" like it did earlier this week, it's only logical that mortgage markets react.

Over the last 36 hours, mortgage rates are down. Expect that to continue.

Beware Of The VIX -- Mortgage Rate Velocity Is Rising

With respect to falling rates, there's a major caveat. Regardless of what the Fed has said, mortgage markets remain tightly wound and scared.

Find your proof in the VIX, more commonly called the Fear Index. The VIX jumped 14 percent today, illustrating the concerns of Wall Street.

When VIX is high, mortgage rates tend to be volatile and rate shoppers tend to get screwed. The last time VIX reached record-levels, for example, mortgage rates rose 1.125% percent in less than 10 days. It was unlike anything I've ever seen.

Therefore, even though mortgage rates are low, it's not a time to wait-and-see.  A turnaround could happen just like <snap>.

Rates Are Falling, But It's Time To Lock In

Mortgage rates are really, really low. Now's not the time to be greedy. Take the bird-in-hand and get started on that refi.

To give an application and get locked, call my office at 513-443-2020. It'll be 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. Or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

Today, in its first meeting in 6 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.

Fed Funds Rate Held Near 0.000%

The Fed Fund Rate remains at a historical low, within a prescribed target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that, since June, the pace of economic recovery “has slowed”. Household spending is increasing but remains restrained because of high levels of unemployment, falling home values, and restrictive credit.

Today’s statement shows less economic optimism as compared to the prior year’s worth of FOMC statements dating back to June 2009. The Fed is looking for growth to be “more modest in the near-term” than its previous expectations.

Fed Stays On Message; No New News On The Economy

Weaknesses aside, the Fed highlighted strengths in the economy, too:

1. Growth is ongoing on a national level
2. Inflation levels remain exceedingly low
3. Business spending is rising

As expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”.

There were no surprises in the Fed’s statement so, as a result, the mortgage market’s reaction to the release has been neutral. Mortgage rates are unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next meeting is scheduled for September 21, 2010.

Join The Refi Boom Before Rates Rise

Mortgage rates are holding at all-time low levels. Regardless of how long you've owned your home, you may be eligible for a refinance. Talk to your loan officer about a rate quote, or . I'd be happy to get you pricing right away.

(Post adapted from Bring the Blog)

The Importance Of Language

Adjectives play an important role in the English language -- they modify nouns.  Because of adjectives, we can linguistically separate good movies from bad movies, rainy days from sunny days, and sore losers from lovable losers.

Sometimes, adjectives are superfluous.  For example, you know this is a mortgage blog so when yours truly writes "rates are lower", it's implied that I'm talking about mortgage rates. I don't need to constantly say "mortgage rates".

Other times, though, omitting adjectives leads to misunderstandings. It happens nearly every time the Federal Open Market Committee meets.

Here's why.

Explaining the FOMC In Layman Terms

The Federal Open Market Committee is a government group that makes monetary policy. It's job is akin to the gas-and-brake pedals on a car -- speed up or slow down the vehicle that is the U.S. economy.

The FOMC has 12 members and is headed by Chairman Ben Bernanke.

8 times annually, the Fed gets together to discuss a host of economic issues and, when the meeting is done, the members vote on whether to raise, lower, or leave unchanged an interest rate called the Fed Funds Rate.

The Fed Funds Rate is the prescribed interest rate at which banks lend money to each other overnight.

Simplified, when the Fed Funds Rate is high, banks end up paying a lot of money in interest payments and are less inclined to borrow from one another, thereby slowing down the economy. When the Fed Funds Rate is low, borrowing is cheap, and the economy is spurred forward.

Because the Fed Funds Rate is directly related to Prime Rate, the basis of business and consumer borrowing, the FOMC's vote carries huge implications for the economy as a whole.

The FOMC Does Not Vote On Mortgage Rates

The FOMC meets today and adjourns at 2:15 PM ET.  The group is expected to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current range of 0.000-0.250 percent.  This is the lowest Fed Funds Rate is history and the Fed has said that the Fed Funds Rate will stay near zero for "an extended period".

However, by 2:30 PM, news stories will surface online about how the Fed voted to "leave rates unchanged" today.

And this brings us back to adjectives -- implied or otherwise.

See, the proper verbiage from the press would be "the Fed voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged today", but that's not how the headlines will be phrased.  They'll just say "rates".

This is a big deal only because most Americans don't know what the Federal Reserve's true scope is; they never learned what the Fed does for the country, or how it does it. It's the main reason why, in my experience, Americans tend to think that the Federal Reserve controls daily mortgage rates.

It doesn't. But... Because of this misconception, when Americans read about the FOMC and "rates", they just assume the story is about mortgage rates.

It's not.

Comparing The Fed Funds Rate To Mortgage Rates

The FOMC doesn't control mortgage rates.  If it did, the chart at top would be less staggered.

Going back 20 years to 1990, the relationship between the Fed Funds Rate and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage has been indirect, at best.  The spread in rates has been as narrow as 1 percent and as wide as 5 percent.  There was even a period in the 1970s and 1980s where the spread went negative; where mortgage rates were lower than the Fed Funds Rate.

And if you need to know the biggest reason why the Fed Funds Rate is untied from mortgage rates, it's because the Fed Funds Rate is an overnight rate and the 30-year fixed rate is a long-term rate.

Borrowing money is much different over 8 hours as compared to 263,000 hours.

Make A Mortgage Rate Lock Plan Ahead Of The FOMC

It's imprudent to float a mortgage rate ahead of an FOMC meeting. Despite the near-universal belief that the Fed Funds Rate won't be changed, there's always the chance that the Fed says something "good" for the economy, causing mortgage rates to spike.

It's happened in the past and it could happen again.

If you're shopping for a mortgage or otherwise not locked in, talk to your loan officer in advance of the Fed's 2:15 P.M. ET announcement. Rates may not rise, but then again, maybe they will. It stinks to be on the wrong side of that bet.

Or, if you don't have a loan officer, with your details and I'll lock your rate for you on the spot.

When you own a home, your fiscal responsibility to the lender goes deeper than just your monthly principal + interest payments.

You've got taxes and insurance to manage, too.

Defining PITI

The mortgage contract requires homeowners to make 4 payments each month -- principal, interest, taxes, and homeowners insurance -- collectively known as PITI.

Pronounced "pee-eye-tee-eye", PITI's pieces can vary. For example, interest only loans may not require principal, and owners of a condominium may pay assessments instead of insurance, but the principle is the same -- don't skirt your obligations.

Failure to make a principal + interest repayment can invoke a mortgage contract's acceleration clause and result in foreclosure.

Failure to pay a home's real estate taxes and/or hazard insurance premiums can also lead to foreclosure and/or invoke the contract's loss payee clause, respectively.

Either way, you don't want to miss a payment.

How To Pay Taxes And Insurance Is Up To You

Lenders let homeowners choose how to manage yearly tax and insurance obligations, usually.  You can opt to pay the bills in full when they come due by yourself, or you can choose to pay 1/12 of the annual bill to the lender each month which, in turn, pays the bills for you upon their respective due dates.

The latter method is known as "escrowing" taxes and insurance. The former is known as "waiving escrows". Waiving escrows is rarely permitted for homeowners with loan-to-values in excess of 80 percent, and is disallowed on FHA loans.

Not surprisingly, loan servicers prefer that homeowners escrow. This is because escrowing taxes and insurance reduces two major lender risks:

1. That a home’s real estate taxes go delinquent and are  sold to a third-party
2. That a home endures major damage during a lapse of insurance coverage

Servicers prefer escrows because, in theory, a home’s taxes are always current and the home’s insurance is always paid.

Calculating What You'll Need For Escrow Each Month

To figure out how much escrows will add to your mortgage payment each month, you may not even need a calculator. Just take the sum of the annual real estate tax bills and insurance bills for your homes, then divide that number and divide it by 12 months in the year.

As an example, a Cincinnati, Ohio home with a $8,400 annual tax bill and a $1,200 insurance policy = $9,600 annually = $800 paid into escrow monthly. These monies are lumped into the "regular" mortgage payment each month, along with the mortgage’s scheduled principal + interest payment.

Most mortgage statements itemize what's being paid into each PITI category for the homeowner's records.

When You Escrow, You Get Lower Mortgage Rates

Because escrowed loans are lower risk to lenders, homeowners that choose to escrow tend to get the lowest rate, lowest fee loans.  This is the result of lenders charging a premium to homeowners wishing to “waive escrow”. It's a risk compensation thing.

Escrow waiver fees vary between banks, and not all banks will charge them, but the cost can range up to half-percent of the amount borrowed. The larger the loan, in dollar terms, the stiffer the penalty.

Alternatively, waiving escrows can also raise your mortgage rate by up to 0.250 percent.

Can You Get A Loan With No Escrow Waiver Fees?

Not all lenders charge an escrow waiver fee so if you prefer to "pay your own way", make sure to give me a call or . I can look into pricing for you to see what's possible. The larger your loan, of course, the more you can save.

Suddenly, the phrase "cleared to close" doesn't mean so much.

Because of a new Fannie Mae policy, a mortgage lender's commitment to fund isn't final until it's final.  Lenders have reason to revoke a person's mortgage approval all the way up until the point of funding.

Scary, scary stuff.

Fannie Mae's "Loan Quality Initiative"

It's called the Loan Quality Initiative. In an attempt to minimize "bad loans", Fannie Mae has told lenders to take more responsibility for their files, and has put them on the hook if loans go bad.

The Loan Quality Initiative is Fannie Mae's response to surging foreclosures. The program shifts the onus of mortgage guideline compliance away from the government-backed group and to the individual banks responsible for making loans.

The LQI scope is broad, taking 9 pages in summary and, for the most part, mortgage applicants won't be bothered with the changes. It's just a lot of extra work for the bank -- things like Social Security Number validation checks and borrower occupancy standards.

There is, however, one major consumer hurdle. And it's a doozy.

Beware The 11th-Hour Credit Score Repull

In the new LQI environment, Fannie Mae has lenders that an applicant's credit profile did not change while the loan was in underwriting.  If the profile did change and the lender "misses" it, Fannie Mae can then refuse to purchase the loan for securitization, burdening the bank with loan on its books (and possibly a loss).

Therefore, it behooves banks to take each mortgage applicant's credit report in hand, and do a complete re-pull just prior to closing -- just to make sure nothing changed.

Banks wants Fannie Mae to buy their loans so they're looking at the re-pulled reports for evidence of any of the following events that might have occurred while the loan was in underwriting:

• Did the applicant apply for new credit cards?
• Did the applicant run up existing cards?
• Did the applicant finance an automobile, or other major purchase?

If the updated credit report doesn't match the original credit report, the mortgage is subject to a complete re-underwrite and a possible loan turndown.

The 3 Things An Underwriter Will Scrutinize

When banks re-pull credit just prior to closing, there are 3 things for which an underwriter is looking, and specific actions the bank will take.

What the bank will do: Recalculate debt-to-income ratios using your "new" minimum payment due figures. If the DTI exceeds Fannie Mae's maximum threshold, the loan will be denied.

What you should do about it: Don't run up credit cards prior to closing -- even for layaway items. Consider paying more than the minimum due, just in case.

What the bank will do: Use your new credit score to assess loan-level pricing adjustments or outright denials for when scores fall below Fannie Mae's minimum credit score requirement.

What you should do about it: Follow the basic rules of keeping your credit score high -- pay your bills, don't let things go into collection, and don't look for new credit unless necessary. myFICO.com has a terrific series on credit scoring you can review.

What the bank will do: Look at the Credit Inquiry section of your credit report to look for "non-disclosed liabilities". If items are found, the bank will ask for supporting documentation on the inquiry, and will use the information to re-underwrite your mortgage.

What you should do about it: Don't go looking for new credit until after your loan is funded.  Period.  Now re-read that first sentence, please, to help it sink it.

And remember -- this is all happening after your loan has reached "final approval" status.

Loan Approvals Are Tougher, But Not Impossible

Fannie Mae started its Loan Quality Initiative is to improve its loan pool's performance.  Better loan quality can help keep conforming mortgage rates down and reducing taxpayer burden from foreclosures simultaneously.  That's two big wins.

Unfortunately, the LQI will also lead to additional mortgage turndowns and a lot of busted closings.

Be extra careful with credit between your application date and your closing date, therefore.  If you must buy something big, think about paying cash.  Anything that goes on a card can be used as grounds for revoking an approval.

Even if your loan is cleared-to-close.

For help with your mortgage approval, or questions about the Loan Quality Initiative, . I am happy to walk you through it.

By now, you had to have heard about mortgage rates. They're low. Really low. Lower-than-they've-ever-been-in-history low.  So, what to do about it?

A Refinance Can Be Extra Money, Every Month

It's a Refi Boom. The biggest one we've seen in a while. Homeowners are finally pulling the trigger on new mortgages and lowering their respective monthly payments.

The press is all over the story, too. Check out some of these headlines from the last 24 hours:

• Mortgage rates set new lows for the 6th straight week (Reuters)
• Mortgage rates fall again; 30-year fixed at 4.54% (Wall Street Journal)
• Mortgage rates hit another low : 4.54% (NPR)

As compared to the start of the year, fixed mortgage rates are down over 0.500%; versus last July, they're down 0.750%. The plunge has dramatically improved home affordability for people taking advantage of the market and has also pushed home affordability into new echelons

From a payment perspective, a conforming, 30-year fixed rate mortgage is cheaper today by $41.94 per month per $100,000 borrowed versus 12 months ago.

Make Back The Cost Of A Refinance 16 Times Over

A homeowner with a $300,000 mortgage from July 2009 will save $45,295.20 over 30 years. That's more than 16 times the average cost of a refinance nationwide, according to Bankrate.com's 2009 state-by-state closing cost survey.

The return is even bigger if your mortgage is more than 12 months old.

The return on investment is huge. And, for homeowners taking the "zero cost"-mortgage route, the returns are even better. They approach infinity.  .

But, the thing is, like most good things, low rates must come to an end. And rates appear to have troughed.

After a big downhill between April and July, mortgage rates are flat since 3 weeks ago. It could mean that rates are gearing up for another drop lower, or, more likely, that rates have finished falling.  If you haven't talked to your loan officer about refinancing, it's time to make that call.

Want To Refinance Your Mortgage? Start With An Email.

If you don't have a loan officer, call or . I work in most states. I can help you figure out for what rate you're eligible, and just how much your monthly savings will be.

I answer all my own calls and emails so reach out today. When rates start rising, they're going to rise quickly.

(This post licensed and based on original content from Bring the Blog)

Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Predictions Only

By way of disclosure, these mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages only. The survey is national, covering Cincinnati, Ohio; Potomac, Maryland; and everywhere else.

FHA streamline refinances are not covered because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 21% think mortgage rates will increase
• 5% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 74% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this story about a guy sent to Mars for a reality TV show that ends up gets canceled on Day 36 of shooting.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"What goes down, must go up. Rates reached a plateau three weeks ago. Get ready for the rising."

Mortgage markets can't seem to break through resistance. It's signal that higher rates are coming.

Momentum Lasted 14 Weeks. Now It's Stopped. Lock In.

Mortgage markets are stuck. If you've been shopping for a loan lately, you've likely noticed that there's been no real change in mortgage rates going back 3 or 4 weeks. Or, maybe you haven't noticed.

Either way, it's bad for rate shoppers. Pricing has hit a wall and getting set to reverse higher. It's all about momentum and when you watch what rates have been doing since April, it'll all make sense.

Check out this timeline:

• Early-April : Eyjafjallajökull erupts, starting rates downward
• Mid-April : Greece sovereign debt issues arise; the slide continues.
• Early-June : Soft U.S. data keeps rates falling
• Mid-June : Mortgage rates reach new, all-time lows
• Late-June : Mortgage rates continue to make new, all-time lows
• Early-July : Mortgage rates bottom out; the Refi Boom begins

But since early-July, there's been no movement in the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, no movement in the 15-year fixed, and no movement in the ARMs. Rates are "stuck".

And, unfortunately, mortgage markets don't work like strength-training where a person plateaus for a few weeks, and then makes more gains.

In the Mortgage World, when momentum stops, it's because there's a force pulling in the opposite direction.

Lock That Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

After 14 weeks, mortgage rate momentum has stopped dead in its tracks. This should be your signal to lock in that rate.

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

Mortgage Market Update For July 27 2010

Mortgage rates have been stupid-low lately, sparking the start of a Refi Boom.

This 96-second video covers a lot of ground:

• The hidden stats in June's Existing Home Sales report
• How move-up buyers are making the Fall Market
• Mortgage rates exhibiting the tell-tale signs of rising
• Timing rate locks for 30 days, 45 days or 60 days for lower fees
• The importance of returning your loan documents quickly

Refinance business is booming right now and purchase activity is close behind. If you're contemplating a mortgage and want to work with me, just . We can start working on your rate quote right away.