Thanks for visiting The Mortgage Reports. To stay absolutely current on mortgage markets and important guideline changes, be sure to take my free daily email alerts.

Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Predictions Only

By way of disclosure, these mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages only. The survey is national, covering Cincinnati, Ohio; Potomac, Maryland; and everywhere else.

FHA streamline refinances are not covered because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 21% think mortgage rates will increase
• 5% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 74% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this story about a guy sent to Mars for a reality TV show that ends up gets canceled on Day 36 of shooting.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"What goes down, must go up. Rates reached a plateau three weeks ago. Get ready for the rising."

Mortgage markets can't seem to break through resistance. It's signal that higher rates are coming.

Momentum Lasted 14 Weeks. Now It's Stopped. Lock In.

Mortgage markets are stuck. If you've been shopping for a loan lately, you've likely noticed that there's been no real change in mortgage rates going back 3 or 4 weeks. Or, maybe you haven't noticed.

Either way, it's bad for rate shoppers. Pricing has hit a wall and getting set to reverse higher. It's all about momentum and when you watch what rates have been doing since April, it'll all make sense.

Check out this timeline:

• Early-April : Eyjafjallajökull erupts, starting rates downward
• Mid-April : Greece sovereign debt issues arise; the slide continues.
• Early-June : Soft U.S. data keeps rates falling
• Mid-June : Mortgage rates reach new, all-time lows
• Late-June : Mortgage rates continue to make new, all-time lows
• Early-July : Mortgage rates bottom out; the Refi Boom begins

But since early-July, there's been no movement in the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, no movement in the 15-year fixed, and no movement in the ARMs. Rates are "stuck".

And, unfortunately, mortgage markets don't work like strength-training where a person plateaus for a few weeks, and then makes more gains.

In the Mortgage World, when momentum stops, it's because there's a force pulling in the opposite direction.

Lock That Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

After 14 weeks, mortgage rate momentum has stopped dead in its tracks. This should be your signal to lock in that rate.

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

Mortgage Market Update For July 27 2010

Mortgage rates have been stupid-low lately, sparking the start of a Refi Boom.

This 96-second video covers a lot of ground:

• The hidden stats in June's Existing Home Sales report
• How move-up buyers are making the Fall Market
• Mortgage rates exhibiting the tell-tale signs of rising
• Timing rate locks for 30 days, 45 days or 60 days for lower fees
• The importance of returning your loan documents quickly

Refinance business is booming right now and purchase activity is close behind. If you're contemplating a mortgage and want to work with me, just . We can start working on your rate quote right away.

It's a Refi Boom and you're among the millions of homeowners trying to snare a low rates while they last.

Thing is, though, when rates are this low, the hard part of a refinance isn't locking the low rate. Low rates are easy to lock. The hard part is closing on the low rate before its rate lock expires.

Life Imitates TV. People Can Only Work So Fast.

If you're refinancing your home right now -- or even thinking about it -- watch this I Love Lucy video.  It's an (imperfect) metaphor for what's happening in mortgage underwriting offices as volume grows.

As you're watching the video, think of:

• Lucy and Ethel as mortgage underwriters
• Chocolates as mortgage applications

It doesn't take much for the girls in the Wrapping Department to get overwhelmed. Two people can only do so much.

Mortgage Underwriting Is Backing Up

Relating to mortgages, with each day that 30-year fixed rates stay below 4.500 percent, and that 15-year fixed rates stay below 4.000 percent, new mortgage applications find their way onto the metaphorical underwriting conveyor belt.

Underwriters are getting backed up. Quickly. And now, most banks are "suggesting" that loans come with 45-day locks at minimum. A 45-day rate lock is more expensive than a 30-day rate lock, of course.

If low rates persist, soon, 60-day locks may be mandatory and that's even more costly.

Get Low Rates And Keep Loan Costs Low

Loans don't get to underwriting these days without a complete supporting paperwork and an appraisal. Therefore, if you've just started the steps of a refinance, or plan to, make sure you're on the ball.

Gather your W-2s, your paystubs and tax returns; return phone calls from your lender promptly; and, most important, let the appraiser in your home as soon as you possibly can.

If you can do these things, your application will be the first chocolate on the belt and not the last. It's the best way to close on your loan quickly.  And closing quickly saves you money.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate Now

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

It's time to make a move -- the underwriting backup started last week. .

Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead?  I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Forecast Only

By way of disclosure, these mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages only. The survey is national, covering Cincinnati, Ohio; Potomac, Maryland; and, everywhere else.  FHA streamline refinances are not covered because FHA mortgage rates are based on GNMA securities. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Florida, condotels in Chicago, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate predictions for the next week:

• 22% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 11% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 67% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching a construction paper re-enactment of every original Mortal Kombat death move.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"It's been three weeks with no change whatsoever. Rates have troughed. Increases are ahead."

Mortgage markets can't seem to break through resistance. It's signal that higher rates are coming.

For Mortgage Rates Clues, Watch Patterns

Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds and, like stocks, bonds respond to changes in economic data including inflation readings, jobs surveys, and housing reports. It's called "fundamental trading"; changing your risk positions based on measurable, quantifiable data.

However, there's another, equally-important type of market-making called "technical trading".

Technical trading is pattern-based trading, using historical trends and algorithms to predict where an asset's price will go next. Trading is carried out by software looking for peaks, valleys, and humps in an asset's pricing history with the assumption they'll repeat themselves.

Today, despite fundamental reasons for mortgage rates to fall, technical reasons are keeping them up.  Mortgage rates have tried to cut lower for 3 weeks now but can't seem to break through. This is technical trading in the wild.

When rates can't go lower, they must go up instead.

Rates Will Fall Again, But Not For A Few Weeks

30-year fixed mortgage rates are in the 4s.  5-year ARMs are in the 3s.  Rates like this warrant a phone call to your lender to at least ask about a refinance.

Call your loan officer and get the math. There's an excellent chance that refinancing your home will lower your mortgage rate and lower your bills substantially.  And, if you're worried about increasing your loan balance, just ask for a "zero cost" mortgage -- the rates on those are really low, too.

Just don't twiddle your thumbs.

Mortgage rates wait for no one and spikes can happen quickly.  The good news, though, is that technical trading factors will eventually bring mortgage rates back lower -- that just may not happen in the time frame in which you need it.

There's no time like the present, in other words.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

Single-family Housing Starts eased lower in June, falling by 0.7 percent from May. This represents a grand total of 3,000 units nationwide.

You may have heard the Housing Starts story differently, though. It depends where you get your news.  The majority of headlines call June's data a disaster. I respectfully disagree.

For home buyers of new homes, and home sellers of existing homes, the data may be quite favorable.

Housing Starts Is A Composite

A “housing start” is a home on which construction has started; technically, a ground-breaking. It applies to homes of all types -- single family, multi-units, and buildings like condos and/or apartments.

Unfortunately, though, when the press reports on Housing Starts, it rarely singles out single-family homes. Instead, it lumps every type of home into a single, giant reading.

As a result, news outlets are reporting June's Housing Starts down 5 percent — a somewhat misleading figure.

The market for single-family homes is where the large majority of Americans buy and sell. Very few people buy and/or build brand-new multi-unit homes, or giant apartment complexes, by comparison.

Single-family housing starts did what everyone expected it to do once the home buyer tax credit expired.  It dropped.

But only by a tad.

June's Housing Starts Data Is Statistically Suspect, Too

However, although the government reports June's Single-Family Housing Starts down slightly from May, because of something called margin of error, we can't put faith in the findings. June's margin of error was 10.7 percent.

As the Department of Commerce noted itself, there is no actual statistical evidence to prove the change in starts from May was different from zero.  The "true" change could be anywhere from -11.4 percent to + 10.0 percent.

That's a wide range.

Ignoring Margin Of Error, Home Buyers And Sellers Smile

If Housing Starts did, in fact, drop in June, it means that housing inventory should fall in Cincinnati, a move that supports local home values. To home sellers, this is good news because it shifts negotiation leverage away from buyers. Fewer homes for sale means less competition for foot traffic.

For home buyers buying new homes, the news is favorable, too.

June’s Housing Starts data helps explain why home builder confidence dropped to its lowest level since April 2009 which, in turn, should create an excellent opportunity to "buy new" on the cheap. Home builders don't like being saddled with inventory and will often offer free upgrades and other incentives to move product.

Additionally, mortgage rates are better since the Housing Starts data release.

Get A Pre-Approval For Your Home Purchase

Home buyers need pre-approvals to show that they're serious about buying, and that a mortgage lender can qualify them for the home in question. Start your pre-approval and we'll handle the rest from there.

Pre-approvals take 4 minutes by phone and are usually completed within an hour.

(Blog post licensed and adapted from Bring the Blog)

Credit scores matter.

Credit scores can mean the difference between a 4.25 percent and a 5.25 percent mortgage rate; a conforming mortgage and an FHA mortgage; an underwriting approval and an underwriting denial.

And most people know this. It doesn't stop them from keeping their credit scores under wraps, however. There seems to be a persistent belief among Americans that "having your credit pulled" is a bad thing.

In some instances, yes. In most instances, no. It's because not all credit applications are created equal.

At least, not in the eyes of the credit bureaus.

Having a mortgage company pull your credit is different from having Target do it.  To understand why, let's start with some credit scoring basics.

Credit Inquiries Are A Formal Process

A "credit inquiry" is a formal request to review a person's credit report.

Credit inquires are grouped with other traits into a credit-scoring category called "New Credit". New Credit represents a tiny 10 percent a person's complete credit score.  On the scale of 300-850, therefore, credit inquiries represent just a portion of complete category that accounts for a maximum of 85 FICO points.

Your credit score can't drop 100 points from a credit check.

Credit checks come in many flavors, but only 4 will change a person's credit score:

1. A credit check for a mortgage loan
2. A credit check for an auto loan
3. A credit check for a credit card application
4. A credit check for a store credit card, or consumer loan

These 4 types are singled out because, in each case, the initial credit inquiry is requested for the specific purpose of taking on more debt.  Extra debt increases the probability of credit default and credit scores drop as a result.

Even then, though, the risk of default varies by credit type.

A credit card application can be more damaging to a credit score than a mortgage application.  This is because credit card debts tend to revolve higher over time versus a mortgage which eventually pays down to $0.

All things equal, credit card applications harm your credit score much more than an application for a home loan.

A Credit Inquiry Lowers Your FICO By 5 Points

When compared to the other credit scoring elements, Credit Inquiries is a relative nothing.

In the official FICO scoring model, Payment History and Credit Utilization account for 65% of a score, combined, and the amount of time during which you've had credit to your name accounts for 15%.  These three areas are over-weighted because the bureaus are more concerned with what you've already done with your credit versus what you might do with more of it.

Your credit past is the best clue to your credit future.

It's one of two reasons why it's okay to give your social security number to as many lenders as you want. The impact of a credit inquiry is minuscule as compared to your history as a Model Credit Citizen.

A mortgage credit inquiry is estimated to lower a credit score by just 5 points.  Unfortunately, we'll never know for sure because the very act of examining the credit score causes it to move. In Physics, this is called the Heisenberg Principle.  On MTV, it's called The Jersey Shore Syndrome.

Put a camera on something, and it changes.

The Credit Bureaus Don't Hit Your FICO Twice

The second reason you should shop around with lenders is that -- unlike applying for multiple credit cards -- applying for multiple mortgages won't ding you for multiple, consumer-initiated inquiries.

Applying common sense: You might apply for 5 credit cards and use them all. You're won't be approved for 5 mortgages. As such, the credit bureaus have made it formal policy to permit "rate shopping".

Talk to as many lenders as you want in a 14-day time frame; have your credit checked as often as you'd like; compare rates and fees.  All of the inquiries will be lumped into a single application.

It's good for you and it's good for the bureaus. Your credit scores stay high and TransUnion, Equifax and Experian collect more fees from the banks.

Advice From The Credit Bureaus On Getting Low Rates

To promote rate shopping and to lessen The Fear of Credit Inquiry, the people behind the FICO brand spell out for you the best way to get the best mortgage rates possible:

1. If you want the best rate, you should "shop around" for it
2. Limit rate shopping to 14-day timespan to keep your credit scores high
3. Mortgage lenders need your FICO to give accurate rate quotes so give up your social security number

Metaphorically, not letting your lender see your FICO is like not letting your doctor check your blood pressure. You'll get a diagnosis when the appointment is over -- it just might not be the right one.

Start Your Mortgage Rate Shopping With A Free Rate Quote

Start your rate shopping now. and we'll start with your credit pull. From there, I'll get you a low mortgage rate to compare with other banks.

Like all things in real estate, foreclosures are a local phenomenon.  The top 10 foreclosure states accounted for more than 70 percent of all foreclosures nationwide last quarter.

Foreclosures Are Concentrated, But "Spreading Out"

One year ago, this blog took foreclosure data from RealtyTrac and ran Pareto Principle graphs on it. The Pareto Principle is also known as the 80/20 Rule.

It states that 80 percent of the effects come from 20 percent of the causes.

The Pareto Principle held true because, at the time, the national REO system was getting pumped full of new property at a furious pace by the likes of California, Florida and Arizona.

Today, however, the 80/20 Rule no longer holds.

In Q2 2010, the 10 most foreclosure-heavy states now account for just 70 percent of foreclosures.  That's a big drop for a 12-month period and based on RealtyTrac data, foreclosures haven't been this un-concentrated since 2007.

Foreclosure Volume Is Falling -- Especially In Ohio

The "spreading out" of foreclosures nationwide is a signal that REO volume is cresting. The assertion is supported by RealtyTrac's raw numbers, too.  Although foreclosure-related filings topped 300,000 for the 16th straight month, the sum is down 3 percent from May and 7 percent from last June.

Foreclosure filings have remained mostly flat since late last year with some states showing improvement. Ohio is one of them.  Foreclosures in Ohio are down 8% from Q1 2010, and down 2 percent from Q2 2009

Also interesting is the trend among "foreclosure hotspots" toward lesser overall activity.  Quarterly foreclosure rates are down in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida -- 4 concentrated areas of activity through 2008-2009.

Finding A Foreclosure Deal Online

The National Association of Realtors® says there's a "distressed home discount" of roughly 15 percent.  That can mean excellent savings if you find REO in decent condition. Unfortunately, though, not every REO is in decent condition (and sometimes you find out too late).

Buying foreclosed homes is different from buying a home resale, or new construction.

For one, distressed properties are often sold as-is and may have defects that render them "un-lendable".  Bad roofing or faulty plumbing comes to mind.  In addition, when you're buying a home in foreclosure, there's no such thing as a "quick closing".

Navigating bank REO departments can be a real nightmare for the unexperienced.

When you're buying a home in foreclosure, you should either (1) really know what you're doing, (2) have a terrific real estate agent, or, mo' better, both. You should also know where to find "the deals".

DIY-types may like these 3 sites. Each offers free, 7-day memberships. After 7 days, pay to extend your membership, or you quit and pay nothing.

1. RealtyTrac offers free access to foreclosure listings
2. Foreclosure.com offers free access to foreclosure listings
3. HUDForeclosed.com offers free access to foreclosure listings

7 days should be enough time to get a feel for the REO market in your area.

Get A Bank-Owned REO Pre-Approval Letter

Do your foreclosure research and see what you like. Then, get your bank-owned REO pre-approval letter, call me and I'll take care of it for you.  I'm experienced with short sales and REOs and my bank closes loans quickly.

Plus,I can finance homes for investors with more than 4 mortgages.

Looking to lock a mortgage rate? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Forecast Only

By way of disclosure, these mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages only. FHA streamline refinances are not covered, nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati, Ohio or Bethesda, Maryland, for example. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Florida, condotels in Chicago, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate predictions for the next week:

• 55% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 5% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 40% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching the reason Auto-Tune was invented. It's a double rainbow. OMG.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The 3-month rally in rates continues (until there's reason for it to end)."

Mortgage rates have been dropping since early-April. Why stop now?

Mortgage Rates Are Falling In Cincinnati. Still.

Next verse, same as the last verse. We've been talking mortgage rates falling for 3 months now.

Here's why it's happening. Mortgage rates are low, not because the housing market is strong, or because the U.S. economy is thriving, but because other nations are struggling and investors want to preserve their capital.

It's called "safe-haven buying". In uncertain times, investors shun risk and move cash to higher-quality assets.

The goal of safe haven buying is capital preservation. A small, safe return trumps the risk of losing it all. Almost like lemmings, investors have decided that the "safe" place to invest right now is in debt backed by the U.S. government. This includes mortgage-backed bonds, of course, which are the basis for conforming mortgage rates.

With the extra demand, bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall. This cycle continues until bond rates get too low for investors to want to buy them. At that point, the market usually reverses for the worse and rates rise.

If You Press Your Luck, You're Bound To Get Whammied

Low rates can't last forever. They just can't.

Today is not "the new normal" -- don't fool yourself into thinking it is. Someday, our children will study the Summer of 2010 in their finance books. What we're witnessing is unprecedented and unlikely to repeat.

Just like folks get nostalgic for the 80s and say, "Remember when you felt lucky to get a 16% mortgage rate?" with a laugh, they'll do the same about 2010. "Remember when rates were in the 4s?"

I mean, srsly, people.  The fours.  What are you waiting for?

In the last few days, "ideal" borrowers have seen their 5-year ARM pricing fall below 3.500 percent with 0 points; the 30-year fixed pricing below 4.375 percent. Really.

If the thought of a refinance has even crossed your mind, talk to your loan officer and get the math. No matter how long you've held your mortgage, there's a pretty good chance that a refinance can:

1. Lower your mortgage rate by a lot
2. Lower your mortgage payment substantially
3. Keep your out-of-pocket costs low

Just don't sit on it. Mortgage markets change rapidly, and without notice. We've seen big, quick rate spikes several times already this year and it could definitely happen again.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. Rates will fall in the next week, but by how much really? Don't be greedy. Be smart.

Last week, the Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 0.8 percent across 20 tracked markets. Then, the public-sector Federal Housing Finance Agency reached a similar conclusion.

They're both good news for housing, of course. But can we believe it?

Good Signs For Housing -- Values Are Rising

Reporting on a two-month lag, the government's Home Price Index shows home values up 0.8 percent in April, buoyed by the expiring federal home buyer tax credit and low mortgage rates.  It's a positive signal for a recovering housing market in Cincinnati and everywhere else.

But just because the Home Price Index says home values are rising, that doesn't mean they are. The Home Price Index methodology is flawed on multiple fronts.

The Flaws Of The Home Price Index Revealed

The biggest flaw is that the Home Price Index reports on a 60-day delay. A two-month lag like this turns the HPI into a trailing indicator for the housing market instead of a forward-looking one. If you're a home buyer looking for direction, HPI won't give it to you -- look to your real estate agent instead.

Second, HPI only accounts for home values in which the home's attached mortgage is backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  Therefore, as the FHA market share grows, fewer homes are getting included in the HPI sample set, and HPI values may skew high or low.

And, lastly, the Home Price Index doesn't account for new home sales -- only repeat ones.  This, too, eliminates a major segment of the market.

The Home Price Index Is The Best Of What's Around

All of that said, though, the Home Price Index remains important to housing.  It's the most comprehensive, thorough home valuation model in print and that fact can't be ignored.  That, and the HPI has been giving strong readings since the start of year.

So here we are.  It's July. By now, the market's bottom has passed and sellers are regaining their negotiating power. However, homes remain relatively inexpensive and mortgage rates are absurdly low.

It's an excellent time to get off the fence and make that offer.

Get a free, no-obligation quote on a mortgage. or call me at 513-443-2020.  I answer my calls and answer all my own emails.

Each Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes a "national" mortgage rate in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey.  Nevermind its flawed methodology -- the Freddie Mac survey does an excellent job of showing whether mortgage rates are rising or falling.

Since early-April, rates are down and down big.

A 3-Month Rally In Mortgage Rates

In March, as the Federal Reserve was winding down its $1.25 trillion mortgage market backstop, mortgage rates spiked. The biggest reason why is because -- absent government buyers -- markets believed the demand for mortgage-backed bonds would plummet.

Lower demand would mean a drop in bond prices which, in turns, would cause mortgage rates to rise. And by traders just believing this would happen come April 1, 2010, they actually caused it to happen.  It was a true self-fulfilling prophecy.

But then, when the market was left to stand on its own two feet, the world's economy suddenly went to junk and bond demand failed to fall.  Economic uncertainty led to a completely unexpected surge in demand.  First, there was the Iceland volcano putting a stop to business. Then, Greece and its debt. Then, a contagion spread through Europe. And so on and so on.

Since mid-April, there's been very little "good news" and all the negatives have pushed mortgage rates down, down, down, down.

Not since ever have conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rates been this low in Cincinnati.

The Falling Cost Of A 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

Over time, the cost to "pay off" a fixed rate mortgage is more than just the amount borrowed. There's also the cost of the interest paid and it's the interest that tends to dent a household budget.

Naturally, the higher the interest rate, the more expensive the long-term cost of the loan.

• In 1994, at interest rates of 9.375%, it took $900,000 to pay off a $300,000 loan
• In 2010, at interest rates of 5.250%, it took $600,000 to pay off a $300,000 loan

1994 isn't that long ago, either.  There's plenty of Cincinnatians who've lived in the same home 16 years, after all.  And, if those people bought a home today and financed it with the same 30-year fixed rate loan, the cost to pay it off their home would be 33% less.

That's a ginormous amount of savings.

Even as compared to home buyers from 2009, the difference is huge.  Versus June of last year, the cost of carrying a 30-year fixed rate mortgage to term has dropped by 11 percent, or $67,000.

Since January 1, the cost is down $37,000.

Locking In Your Low-Cost Mortgage

When we talk about home affordability, it's stuff like this; long-term mortgage costs are dropping; home values are in a trough; lumber and labor are cheap.  It's an excellent time to buy a home, all things relative.

It's also an excellent time to refinance once, too -- especially if you can lower your long-term loan cost by $67,000. Most people will save more, by the way.

Get a free, no-obligation quote on your mortgage, .  Or, call me.  I answer my calls and answer all my own emails.

Mortgage rates change all the time. The rate you want right now may not be around next week. If it makes financial sense to refinance today, therefore, do your refinance today.

Looking to lock a mortgage rate? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Forecast Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA streamline refinances nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati, Ohio or Leesburg, Virginia, for example. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and the 5-10 Properties program may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the survey panel's mortgage rate predictions:

• 33% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 11% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 56% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this compilation of the 100 Best Movie Insults Of All-Time.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Rates ease lower, but don't get caught watching the paint dry. It's time to lock."

Mortgage rates have been falling for 14 weeks and it's easy to get complacent at a time like this. Don't.

The World's Pain Is YOUR Mortgage Rate Gain

Mortgage rates are lower than they've been in history.  You can thank the rest of the world for that.  What started as a general concern that Greece would default on its debt has spilled over to the entire Eurozone region.

Furthermore, there's doubts about the strength of China's recovery and with each additional drip of negative news, investors grow increasingly skittish.

It's a global gut check and stock markets are suffering. Wall Street is selling equities and indices are making new lows.  The early-year rally is stalling and bond markets are making gains.

Rate shoppers are winning big.

With government-backed mortgage bonds in high demand, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are now below 4.500 for folks willing to pay discount points and ARMs are now posting in the 2s.  Yes, the twos.

Who could ask for anything more?

Don't Be Greedy. Don't Be Greedy. Don't Be Greedy.

There's always a choice, brotha.

1. You can wait for mortgage rates to fall even lower
2. You can lock today's low rates, the proverbial bird-in-hand

I can't tell you what's best for you, but if the question of a refinance crosses your mind -- if even for moment -- make sure you talk to your loan officer to get the math.  No matter how long you've held your mortgage, there's a pretty good chance you can (1) Lower your mortgage rate, (2) Lower your mortgage payment, and (3) Keep your out-of-pocket costs to a minimum.

And while we're on the topic: Having a conversation with your friend or family member about "mortgage rates" is not the same thing as talking to a loan officer.  No offense, but Aunt Ginny just ain't plugged in to mortgages, mortgage bonds, and mortgage pricing.

Mortgage markets change rapidly, and without notice. We've seen huge rate spikes more than a few times this year so far it could definitely happen again.

When rates start to rise, they'll rise quickly.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. Rates will fall in the next week, but by how much really? Don't be greedy. Be smart.

In June, for the first time since December 2009, the U.S. workforce shrank. Sort of.

Jobs AND Unemployment Rate Down

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy shed 125,000 jobs last month, and the Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.5 percent.

And, no -- those figures aren't contradictory.

Because the Unemployment Rate measures the number of people looking for work as compared to the total workforce size, as people stop "looking", it follows that the Unemployment Rate falls, too.

Fewer people are looking for jobs.

So Far, 857,000 New Jobs This Year

At first glance, the jobs report looks weak but a deeper look shows something different.

Excluding the 225,000 government Census workers that recently left the workforce, the total number of employed persons actually grew by 83,000 in June. That’s 50,000 more working Americans as compared to May.

Plus, since the start of the year, the U.S. workforce has grown by 857,000.

Why Jobs Matter To Mortgage Rates

Jobs growth is closely tied to economic growth.  This is because working Americans have more disposable income which, in turn, stokes consumer spending, the biggest part of the U.S. economy by a long-shot.

Job growth is better for the economy than job loss.

So, as consumer spending grows and lifts the economy, Wall Street mentality tends to shift from "safety of principal" (i.e. bond markets) toward "return on principal" (i.e. stock markets).  A move like this is bad for rate shoppers in Cincinnati because falling bond demand is linked to higher mortgage rates.

Take Advantage. The Market Is Missing The Signals.

A strong jobs report should cause conforming mortgage rates to rise. And, if we peel back the layers, June's jobs report was strong.  But Wall Street doesn't see it that way.

Wall Street is focusing on the headline number -- 125,000 jobs lost -- and ignoring the bigger picture. Don't let that be your loss, though.  For now, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are below the magical 4.500 percent marker for which so many homeowners waited to refinance.

5-year ARMs are available under 3 percent.  It's unfathomable.

Take advantage of the lowest mortgage rates in history.

ARMs Below 3 Percent And Other Amazing Rates

Whether you live in Cincinnati, Chicago, or anywhere else, mortgage rates are amazingly low right now. If I wasn't knee-deep in mortgages each day of my life, I don't think I'd believe the rates were "real", actually.  It's almost ridiculous.

No matter what you think about your mortgage qualifications -- too little equity, too little income, too big of a loan size -- take 5 minutes out of your day to call your loan officer. Find out whether you qualify for a mortgage at today's rates.  Sure, rates may fall lower, but, then again, they might not.

Call my office at 513-443-2020 to get your rate, or .

I gave a 2-part interview with Beejal Patel of First Business. This is the second part.

Beejal and I talk about changes in FHA mortgage insurance premiums, jumbo mortgages, first-time homebuyers, and mortgage rates.

• The FHA is raising monthly mortgage insurance premiums as allowed by Congress
• Jumbo mortgage guidelines and loosening and jumbo mortgage rates are cheap
• How a double-dip recession could actually help homeowners and homebuyers

The interview is 3 minutes and gets deep on FHA and jumbo topics.  Call or with your follow-up questions, or to lock a mortgage rate as soon as possible.

Click here to watch Part I of the interview.

I gave a 2-part interview with Beejal Patel of First Business. This is the first part.

Beejal and I talk about the economy, home sales and mortgage rates.

• The tax credit extension to September 30, 2010
• Why the Existing Home Sales data is better than the "sales prices" show
• Mortgage rates are lower than what the media reports

The interview is 3 minutes and we cover a lot of ground.  Call or with your follow-up questions, or to lock a mortgage rate as soon as possible.

Click here to watch Part II of the interview.

As mortgage lenders reduce their respective lending risk, certain condominiums around the country are being specifically excluded from approval.

It's stymieing purchase and refinance activity in Chicago, Florida and everywhere else a "non-standard" condominium exists.

About Non-Warrantable Condos

A non-warrantable condo, by definition, is a condominium that does not meet the minimum eligibility standards as set by Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac.

When condo buildings  fail Fannie and Freddie's minimum standards, it's often for one or more of the following reason:

1. The project is more than 10% owned by one entity
2. 50% or more of the project units are rentals
3. More than 20% of the building square footage is "commercial"
4. The project is filed with the SEC and is sold as an investment opportunity
5. The project is "new" and grants concessions and/or abatements not listed on the settlement statement

And, there are other non-warrantable traits, too, including too many "unsold units", certain types of pending litigation, and length of time that the condo board has been in control of the building's owners.  The list is quite long, actually.

In Mortgages, It's About The Building AND The Buyer

The mere presence of any of these characteristics instantly characterizes the building as "non-warrantable",  preventing building owners from securing conventional mortgage financing on today's mortgage guidelines.

This fact can surprise homeowners who may otherwise be well-qualified.

For home buyers and owners facing a non-warrantable condo situation, good credit, good income, and good downpayment suddenly becomes irrelevant.  It's the new truth in lending:

It's not just about the buyer anymore; it's about the building, too.

The same set of rule applies to another type of condo classification; one that's normally associated with luxury and vacationing.  The condotel.

Condotels Face Similar Underwriting Scrutiny

Condotel is a portmanteau of the words "condominium" and "hotel".  It describes buildings used as both a condo and a hotel, with owners keeping the rights to rent their units while they're not actually using them.

Most often, condotel rentals are managed by an on-site rental company.

A typical condotel arrangement would be in say, Miami, where a family owns a unit in a condotel building on the mountain but only visits Miami 6 weeks per year.  During the other 46 weeks, the on-site rental company rents the unit as a "hotel room" to other Miami vacationers.

The Trump International Hotel & Tower in Chicago has a similar setup.

Like non-warrantable condos, condotels cannot be financed through Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and so, more often than not, condotel buyers have found themselves up a creek; ready to close but unable to find financing.

Thankfully, mortgage money is available for condotels and non-warrantables -- you just have to know where to look.

Yes, You Can Get Condotel And Non-Warrantable Condo Loans

Over the last few weeks, less than a half-dozen banks chose to re-open the market for non-warrantable and condotel mortgages. Rates typically run a half-percent higher than comparable conventional mortgages and the minimum downpayment starts at 25 percent.

Beyond that, however, getting an approval is simple.

1. Prove your income
2. Prove your assets
3. Prove your credit score

That's it.  Now, there are some building considerations, too, but they're not nearly as tough as what Fannie or Freddie would throw at you.  And the building requirements are more geared toward making sure the building is well-constructed and insured than anything else.

Every reputable condo and condotel in the country is going to pass that test.

And even better -- because approvals are being handled by individual underwriters and not Big Banks, loan approval times are decidedly quick.  It's perfectly reasonable to close on a condotel or non-warrantable condo in less than 30 days.

15 days from contract-to-closing is common with condotels and non-warrantables.

Get Non-Warrantable Condo Financing

If you're under contract for a non-warrantable condo or condotel in Chicago, Florida, or anywhere else, . The more you tell me -- building name, address, purchase price, closing date, etc -- the more I can help you.

I can lend on non-warrantable condomoniums and condotels in many states.

Wednesday, in its first meeting in 5 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.

The Fed Fund Rate remains within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The Recovery "Is Proceeding"

In its press release, the FOMC said that, since April, "the economic recovery is proceeding" and that the jobs market "is improving gradually". Business spending "has risen significantly", too, with the exception of commercial real estate.

The June FOMC statement is the 8th straight press release in which the Fed shows optimism for the U.S. economy, dating back to June 2009.  Since last year, the Fed has terminated all of the programs it created to support the economy through the economic crisis.

Also, as expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period", citing that "inflation has trended lower" recently.

The recession is widely believed to be over.

Despite Economic Growth, Threats Linger

And, although the Fed's June statement acknowledged economic growth, it highlighted lingering threats, too.

1. Employers remain reluctant to hire new workers
2. Household wealth (i.e. equity) is lower
3. Bank lending is contracting

Furthermore, the Fed wrote "Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad."

Translated : Europe concerns us.

That's a big deal for mortgage rate shoppers because as Europe has faltered financially and economically since, the U.S. mortgage market reaped the gains.  Mortgage rates are below the all-time lows of last year and poised to drop more.

Locking Rates : Strike While The Iron Is Hot

Mortgage rates are low and -- as many times as we say it -- they can't stay this low forever. They sure seem to, though, don't they?

It's just, I'm not one to mess with chance and maybe you're not, either. Call in that rate lock today, folks.

With 30-year fixed mortgage rates cutting 4.500 percent, it's not like an extra 1/8 percent dip will change your life going forward.  And I like the idea of a 4.500 rate over the next 30 years, though. How about you?

Lock your mortgage rate with a simple phone call to 513-443-2020, or, save time and just send me an email with your details. I'm happy to get your rate locked right away -- before rates creep back higher.

(Content adapted from Bring the Blog, a daily blog-writing service for mortgage and real estate salespersons)

The Federal Open Market Committee starts a 2-day meeting today and will vote to keep the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. Don't expect mortgage rates to stay unchanged, too, however.  The Fed Funds Rate and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate are two completely different animals.

Yet, people confuse them all the time. Here's what you need to know.

Conforming Mortgage Rates Are Made On Wall Street

The Federal Reserve controls two interest rates -- the Fed Funds Rate and the Discount Rate.  Both are "banking" rates.  Neither is a consumer rate.

When the Federal Reserve makes a vote on the Fed Funds Rate, it's voting on the rate at which banks borrow from each other. The Federal Reserve is not voting to change consumer mortgage rates because, based on its government charter, it can't.

Therefore, if you're looking for somebody to tell you where mortgage rates will go, don't look to the Fed.  Look to Wall Street instead. Mortgage rates are the by-product of mortgage-backed bonds and their respective prices. The Federal Reserve has nothing to do with it.

If the Fed controlled mortgage rates using the Fed Funds Rate, the interest rate spread between the two would be liner.

Clearly, it's not.

Ben Bernanke Influences The Mortgage Market

Now, all of that said, the Fed is not without influence on mortgage rates.  This is because the Federal Reserve is our nation's Central Banker and its policies set the tone for the equities markets.

For example, when the Federal Reserve makes positive comments about the economy, the stock market tends to gain and those gains come at the expense of bonds.  Similarly, when the Fed is down on the economy, stock markets often sell off and bond markets get the benefit.

Simplified:

• Rates rise when the Fed is unexpectedly positive on the economy
• Rates fall when the Fed is unexpectedly negative on the economy

This is why it doesn't matter how the Fed votes tomorrow.  It'll be the group's post-meeting press release that sets the tone for mortgage rates.

It's imprudent to float a mortgage rate ahead of a FOMC meeting.

Call In Your Rate Lock ASAP

If you're shopping for a mortgage or otherwise not locked in, talk to your loan officer in advance of the Fed's 2:15 P.M. ET announcement tomorrow. Rates are more likely to rise than to fall.

Or, if you don't have a loan officer, with your details. I'm happy to get your rate locked right away -- before rates change for the worse.

In February 2009, Fannie Mae rolled back a rule that kept real estate investors from financing more than 4 properties at a time.  The limit raised the maximum number of financed properties to 10.

The program provides bona fide investors with an avenue to add to their respective real estate portfolios.

Yes, You CAN Finance With 5-10 Homes

In its official announcement, Fannie Mae said upping the financed-property limit would help stabilize housing nationwide.

"Experienced investors play a key role in the housing recovery", it said.

15 months later, however, finding a bank that offers the 5-to-10 Properties Financed program is proving to be a challenge. Unlike the traditional 15-year fixed rate mortgage, most lenders are not offering the 5-10 Properties program as a matter of policy.

It's cause for consternation among the real estate investment crowd.  Fannie Mae says it will buy the loans; banks should be willing to do them.

Why Some Banks Won't Offer The 5-10 Properties Program

So, why don't all bank participate in the 5-to-10 Properties Financed program?

The probable answer is that underwriting a 5-property-owning investor's mortgage application is hard work.  "Traditional" homeowners submit for loan approvals with just a basic W-2 and paystub for an approval.  Bona fide real estate investors, on the other hand, submit for approval with complex tax returns, REO schedules, and a ton more details to reconcile and verify.

It's far quicker to underwrite and approve a standard loan as compared to a 5-10 Properties program loan. However, both loans are valued the same when bundled for Wall Street securitization.

In other words, the 5-10 Properties program is more work for same profit.  It's no wonder most banks don't do it.

Thankfully, a few of the nation's banks will.  You just have to know where to find them.

And you have to meet their guidelines.

The 5-10 Financed Properties Program Criteria

In order to purchase and finance a home through Fannie Mae with more than 4 existing financed properties, investors must meet all of the following criteria:

• Own between 5-10 residential properties with financing attached
• Make a 25 percent downpayment on the property; 30 percent for 2-4 unit
• Minimum credit score of 720
• No mortgage lates within the last 12 months on any mortgage
• No bankruptcies or foreclosures in the last 7 years
• 2 years of tax returns showing rental income from all rental properties
• 6 months of PITI reserves on each of the financed properties

For refinances, loan-to-value is capped at 70% for all property types.

And then, as a last step to reduce fraud, Fannie Mae's multiple property program requires applicants to sign a 4506-T -- a form giving lenders permission to verify your submitted-with-the-loan tax returns against the official, IRS-filed version of the same.

Where To Get A 5-10 Properties Program Mortgage

If you own more than 4 financed properties and want to purchase a new one, or refinance one you already own, let your first call be to your personal loan officer or bank.  Ask for help -- you can't know if your banks offers the 5-10 Properties program until you ask.

If that call gets you nowhere, you call me directly or .

I offer mortgages for investors with 5 or more properties financed. I'd be happy to get you started.

Despite what you're hearing, the federal home buyer tax credit has not been extended beyond its June 30, 2010 deadline to September 2010. At least not yet.

Here's the back-story.

Helping Homeowners Claim Expiring Credits

When the tax credit was last modified in November 2009, Congress modified its language to read that, in order to be eligible, a homeowner must be under mutual contract for a home on or before April 30, 2010, and must be closed on said home on or before June 30, 2010.

60 days between contract and close, industry lobbyists reasoned, would be ample time to execute.  Turns out, they were wrong.

A surge in April purchase activity created back-office back logs at the nation's biggest banks and an estimated 180,000 home buyers are finding out the hard way that lenders don't always clear conditions as quickly as you'd like.

There's a lot of tax credit money at stake and Congress is trying to do something about it.

How A Tax Credit Extension Bill Becomes The Law

First things first -- the tax credit date change is not its own bill. The extension proposal is tagged onto a broader bill of tax policy extensions and federal program renewals.  This means that the fate of the home buyer credit won't be on the merit of the credit alone.

It also means that the bill may not become law in time for June 30, 2010.  The extension has passed the Senate but there's still two steps to go (and loads of debate).

I made direct mention of this on Twitter Thursday:

It takes more than a Senate passage to extend the home buyer tax credit.  It takes a vote in the House of Representatives plus a signature from the White House, too.  So far, we're not there.

What If You Miss The June 30, 2010 Tax Credit Deadline?

Some people will miss the deadline.  You may be one of them.  For now, there's no outlet and no relief.

Technically, Congress could pass the law prior to June 30 and everyone will be fine, or it could pass the law after June 30 and make the credit retroactive for everyone that missed it.  But, again, for now, nothing.

Schoolhouse Rock teaches us that.

Looking to lock a mortgage rate? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Forecast Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA streamline refinances nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati or Philadelphia, for example. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and the 5-10 Properties program may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the survey panel's mortgage rate predictions:

• 35% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 65% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this hastily made tourism video for Cleveland.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"With the Fed meeting next week, markets move to wait-and-see mode."

It's all quiet on the Wall Street front until next Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve Meets Next Week

The Federal Open Market Committee begins a scheduled 2-day meeting next Tuesday.  It's one of 8 meetings for the year and there's absolutely no expectation for the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate.

That doesn't mean mortgage rates won't change, however.

The Federal Reserve is the nation's Central Banker, setting monetary policy for the banks and business, and, ultimately, that policy trickles down to consumers in the form of Cost of Living adjustments, credit card borrowing rates, and mortgage rates.

Since December 2008, the Fed has kept the Fed Funds Rate in a target range of near 0.000 percent.  In doing so, it's helped stimulate the economy and, on record, the recession that the Fed's move was meant to lessen, did actually end at some point mid-2009.

Why Rates Won't Move Until Bernanke Has Spoken

Although the Fed won't raise the Fed Funds Rate, it can still make a big impact with its post-meeting press release.  The press release highlights the strengths, weaknesses and threats to the economy as seen by the Federal Reserve.

Lately, economic data is conflicting.  Jobs look strong, then weak.  Inflation looks weak, then strong. Manufacturing is all over the map.  And that's just here at home.

Globally, there's nations in massive debt and reeling.  And there's others that are moving to constrain their growth.

For safety, Wall Street is squaring is bets in advance of the Fed's meeting. There won't be much activity between now and Wednesday.

I think.

Recommendation : Float Cautiously

Despite the next half-week's lull, don't turn your back on the market for a second.

One of the hallmarks of mortgage markets is its propensity to change rapidly, and without notice. We've seen it more than a few times already this year and Mortgage Rate Velocity remains extremely high.

Unless you're shopping for a jumbo mortgage, or in need of an interest mortgage, there's very little reason to lock.  Conforming rates should stay calm.  Use the "downtime" to get your mortgage application into a loan officer because once the Fed does adjourn, rates should move quickly.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process. To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or .