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The Mortgage Rate Prediction For The Next 7 Days (June 3, 2010)

Posted on June 3, 2010
Filed under Rate Surveys

Looking to lock a mortgage rate? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey results may help give you guidance.

Predicting Conforming Mortgage Rates Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati or Washington, D.C, for example. Furthermore, unique property types including Chicago non-warrantable condos, condotels and the 5-10 Properties program may be excluded.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Predictions June 04 2010for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the survey panel's mortgage rate predictions:

  • 38% predict mortgage rates will increase
  • 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
  • 62% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent with chickens, monkeys and ducks.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Stock market gains are bond market losses.  Mortgage rates rise."

If you know what to watch for, you'll see the rate hikes coming.

The Relationship Between Stocks And Bonds

On any given day, you might turn on CNBC and hear an analyst talk about "stock markets gaining and bond markets losing" followed by commentary about how investors are in search of risk and shedding their bond portfolio.

On the next day, however, you could hear the exact opposite analysis -- "stock markets losing and bond markets gaining" because investors changed their mind and are shunning risk in search of safety.

Hear it enough times, and you start to believe that stock markets and bond markets are opposites; when one is up, the other is down. It's a falsehood, though. Stocks and bonds sometimes move in opposite directions.

Not always.  Sometimes.

Right now is one of those times.

Risk-Taking Returns, Dooming Mortgage Rates

Over the past month-and-a-half, global stock markets have been selling off en masse.

A combination of natural disaster, sovereign debt concerns and fear of a global economic slowdown have pushed investors away from stock markets and toward the relative safety of bond markets.

We have to remember that big, fear-based movements are temporary.   Eventually, fear subsides. Otherwise the stock market would still be reeling from 1929, 1987 and 2008.

Fear is rarely as profitable as greed, after all, and once investors acclimate to bad news, they start looking for good news.

"Good" news, by the way, is reason to chase risk; to get back into stocks. It's also one of those times that stocks and bonds move in opposite directions.  Mortgage rates will rise when stock markets rally and there's plenty of reasons to rally right now.

Oh, and it's not just domestic growth, either.  Canada just became the first member of the G-7 to raise its version of the Fed Funds Rate.

The economy is back. Stock markets will be, too

Recommendation : Lock Your Mortgage Rate ASAP

MRV -- Mortgage Rate Velocity -- is as high as its been in a year and rate changes come quickly. If you haven't given a loan application to your loan officer, do it today.

The longer you wait, the more your next loan may cost you because once the stock market starts its rally, it'll be swift. Rates will rise quickly.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process. To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or . And be sure to give applications to other loan officers, too. Don't worry -- your credit score won't be damaged if you do it the right way.

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Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

Tags: Bankrate. com, Monkey Chicken Duck, Mortgage Bonds, mortgage rates

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