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Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo mortgages or payday loans. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 45% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 55% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent waiting for the punch line than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The malls are empty and so are calls for higher rates."

Consumer spending drives the economy.  Without spending, there's no growth and, as a result, tepid retail sales reports force Wall Street to rethink its bets on U.S. economic recovery.

It's a primary reason why rates return to 5 percent again and again. The economy is back from the brink -- banks are healthier, investment is returning, household net worth is up -- but consumers continue to stand en garde. Confidence is down.

A recovery is not a recovery until consumers buy-in. Literally. And, right now, that's not happening.

Over the next 6 weeks, retail sales will be in focus. How consumers are spending their money; if consumers are spending their money.  Joblessness is a key equational part of the equation, too.

Therefore, keep an eye on your local mall for shoppers, and watch for unemployment rates. Mortgage rates will respond to both between now and January 1.  At the first sign of strength, markets will unleash rates to jump toward 6 percent.

Suddenly, the December 4 jobs report is of huge import.

For now, though, mortgage rates are low. Take advantage.  When rates finally make that break higher, the action will be fast. You won't have much time to react -- maybe 3 days to a week at most.

To stay ahead of mortgage rate changes, follow my "Float or Lock" advice on Facebook and Twitter. It's free and should help you make better decisions with your rate locks.

And if you find my advice useful, or call me so we can work together. I answer all my own emails and my rates are excellent.

The Case-Shiller Index is a home price gauge, published by private researchers.  Using data from public records, the index compares recent sales prices on single-family homes to the last-known sales prices of those same homes, compiling the results  into a monthly report.

For example, if a home at 1060 W Addison in Chicago sold for $200,000 in 2008 and then again $250,000 in 2009, the Case-Shiller Index would say the home changed by 25% annually.

According to the March 2009 Case-Shiller Index report, home prices are down by nearly 19 percent nationwide.  Or, at least, that's the story the press is running with.  It makes for good headlines, but the data can be misleading to the average homebuyer in Cincinnati or Chicago or elsewhere. 

Home buyers shouldn't really care about annual price appreciation -- they should care about monthly price appreciation.  As in, I've been looking for a home for the last 30 days -- are home prices trending higher while I'm in the process?

When you look at the monthly Case-Shiller data, it paints a different picture.  Yes, home values are down in a broad perspective, but on a month-to-month basis, the pace of decline is slowing.  15 of 20 markets covered by Case-Shiller Index either improved, stayed flat, or declined by 0.2 percent or less. 

 Numbers like that are a lot less scary than today's papers' headlines.

All of this notwithstanding, however, because of its methodology, the Case-Shiller Index remains flawed and imperfect.  Most obviously, the report only figures home price data from 20 cities across the country.  The 20 cities, you'll note, aren't even the  20 most populated ones.

• Houston is omitted from Case-Shiller.  It ranks #4 in population.
• San Antonio is omitted from Case-Shiller.  It ranks #7 in population.
• San Jose is omitted from Case-Shiller.  It ranks #10 in population.

Tampa, however, as the 54th most populous city, is included.

Secondly, the Case-Shiller Index is not a "real-time" report.  It's two months lagging.  May's report is a study of March home prices and a lot can happen in a 2-month period.  For example, in the last 60 days, mortgage rates fell to new all-time lows and the first group of buyers using the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit program have written sales contracts on homes. 

This data is not reflected in the May Case-Shiller Report.

And lastly, we can't ignore the Case-Shiller Index's irrelevance as a home value gauge because because home values can't be summarized on the city-level any more than they can be summarized on a country-level.  Each real estate market has its own character and flavor, broken down into areas, neighborhoods and street. 

There's a different appeal to living in Mason, Ohio versus Hyde Park, Cincinnati, Ohio, most locals would know, but Case-Shiller would lump them together anyway creating a false expectation for buyers in both areas.  The best way to know what local home prices are doing is to talk with a skilled real estate agent in your area who has access to real-time data. 

If you want a referral in your home market -- .

Despite its flaws, however, the Case-Shiller Index is still important.  It helps to identify broader trends in housing and housing is expected to lead the economy out of recession.  Therefore, watching the Case-Shiller Index can provide foresight into the timing of an economic inflection point.

After 2 straight modestly-mild reports, we may be nearing that point now.