Will Interest Rates Go Down in November? | Predictions 2024

Mortgage rate forecast for next week (Nov. 4-8)

Mortgage interest rates moved up for the fifth straight week.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) increased from 6.54% on Oct. 24 to 6.72% on Oct. 31, according to Freddie Mac. While the last month of growth hurts potential borrowers, the 30-year FRM averaged 7.76% the same time a year ago.

“With several potential inflection points happening over the next week, including the jobs report, the 2024 election, and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, we can expect mortgage rates to remain volatile. Although uncertainty will remain, it does appear mortgage rates are cresting, and we do not expect them to reach the highs that we saw earlier this year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

In this article (Skip to...)

• Will rates go down in November?
• 90-day forecast
• Expert rate predictions
• Mortgage rate trends
• Rates by loan type
• Mortgage strategies for November
• Mortgage rates FAQ

Will mortgage rates go down in November?

“The general trend for mortgage rates toward the end of the year and into 2025 will likely be downward if the labor market continues to soften and inflation slows.”

-Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American

Mortgage rates fluctuated significantly in 2023, with the average 30-year fixed rate going as low as 6.09% on Feb. 2 and as high as 7.79% on Oct. 26, according to Freddie Mac. It’s been much tamer in 2024, as rates gradually descended in the second half of the year.

With the economy possibly heading into a recession, we may have already seen the peak of this rate cycle. Of course, interest rates are notoriously volatile and could tick back up on any given week.

Experts from CoreLogic, Home Qualified, Realtor.com, First American, and CJ Patrick weigh in on whether 30-year mortgage rates will climb, fall, or level off in November.

Expert mortgage rate predictions for November

Molly Boesel, principal economist at CoreLogic

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“Inflation continues to drop towards the Federal Reserve target, almost ensuring further monetary easing. However, employment growth surprised to the upside in the last month, sending long-term rates higher. While the 30-year mortgage rate is set to fall in future months, it appears that consumers may need to wait a little longer for lower long-term mortgage rates. Look for the 30-year mortgage rate to remain in the mid-to-high 6% range in November.”

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

Prediction: Rates will decline

“Mortgage rates have been up almost since the day that the FED announced their 50 basis-point cut in the borrowing rate. The rate rise has been caused by investor speculation of an overreach by the Fed in that reduction. The remainder has been because of data showing that inflation has cooled more than expected and unemployment coming in more positive. These factors will influence if the Fed makes more cuts. The election also should have an impact over rate sentiment for the next few months. Overall, I believe mortgage rates will come down some in November.”

Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com

Prediction: Rates will decline

“Mortgage rates are expected to ease in November, but will be contingent on incoming economic data. Rates are not likely to continue to climb at their recent clip, but meaningful downward movement will be dependent on incoming inflation and employment data in the next couple of weeks. If employment and inflation slow according to expectations, the market will feel more confident about upcoming Fed rate cuts, which will allow mortgage rates to fall once again.”

Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American

Prediction: Rates will decline

“The anticipation of a 25-basis point Federal Reserve rate cut in November has largely been priced into current mortgage rates. The outlook for mortgage rates will depend on incoming labor market and inflation data, as well as any signals from the Fed regarding the extent of future rate cuts. If upcoming data suggests a weaker-than-expected labor market or economy, we could see some downward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates. Conversely, stronger-than-expected economic performance could lead to an increase in rates. The general trend for mortgage rates toward the end of the year and into 2025 will likely be downward if the labor market continues to soften and inflation slows, though some volatility is expected along the way.”

Rick Sharga, CEO at CJ Patrick Company

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“Mortgage rates ticked up after the Federal Reserve made its long-anticipated cut to the Fed Funds Rate, confounding a lot of industry forecasters. Odds are that rates on 30-year mortgages will continue to be affected by stronger-than-expected economic news and higher yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, which are up almost 50 basis points since the rate cut happened on September 19. While it’s still likely that mortgage rates will decline over the next 12-15 months, they’ll do so slowly, and November rates seem likely to stay somewhere around 6.50-7.0%.

“It’s also important to keep in mind that the national elections will take place in November, and the market may react in ways we can’t predict today, depending on the election outcomes. This is a wild card when it comes to financial matters: mortgage rates — along with bond yields and the stock market — could all be impacted.”

Mortgage interest rates forecast next 90 days

As inflation ran rampant in 2022, the Federal Reserve took action to bring it down and that led to the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage spiking in 2023.

With inflation gradually cooling, the Fed adjusted its policies with skipped hikes a cut in September and more expected going forward. Additionally, the economy showing signs of slowing has many experts believing mortgage interest rates will gradually descend in 2024.

Of course, rates could rise on any given week or if another global event causes widespread uncertainty in the economy.

Mortgage rate predictions for 2024

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.72% as of Oct. 24, according to Freddie Mac. All five major housing authorities we looked at project 2024’s fourth quarter average to finish below that.

Wells Fargo sits at the low end of the group, predicting the average 30-year fixed interest rate to settle at 6.15% for Q4. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors had the highest forecast of 6.7%.

Current mortgage interest rate trends

Mortgage rates rose for the fifth consecutive week.

The average 30-year fixed rate grew from 6.54% on Oct. 24 to 6.72% on Oct. 31. The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate similarly increased, going from 5.71% to 5.99%.

Source: Freddie Mac

After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2024. Whatever happens, interest rates are still below historical averages.

Dating back to April 1971, the fixed 30-year interest rate averaged around 7.8%, according to Freddie Mac. So if you haven’t locked a rate yet, don’t lose too much sleep over it. You can still get a good deal, historically speaking — especially if you’re a borrower with strong credit.

Just make sure you shop around to find the best lender and lowest rate for your unique situation.

Mortgage rate trends by loan type

Many mortgage shoppers don’t realize there are different types of rates in today’s mortgage market. But this knowledge can help home buyers and refinancing households find the best value for their situation.

Which mortgage loan is best?

The best mortgage for you depends on your financial situation and your goals.

For instance, if you want to buy a high-priced home and you have great credit, a jumbo loan is your best bet. Jumbo mortgages allow loan amounts above conforming loan limits, which max out at $ in most parts of the U.S.

On the other hand, if you’re a veteran or service member, a VA loan is almost always the right choice. VA loans are backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. They provide ultra-low rates and never charge private mortgage insurance (PMI). But you need an eligible service history to qualify.

Conforming loans and FHA loans (those backed by the Federal Housing Administration) are great low-down-payment options.

Conforming loans allow as little as 3% down with FICO scores starting at 620. FHA loans are even more lenient about credit; home buyers can often qualify with a score of 580 or higher, and a less-than-perfect credit history might not disqualify you.

Finally, consider a USDA loan if you want to buy or refinance real estate in a rural area. USDA loans have below-market rates — similar to VA — and reduced mortgage insurance costs. The catch? You need to live in a ‘rural’ area and have moderate or low income to be USDA-eligible.

Mortgage rate strategies for November 2024

Mortgage rates continue to display their famous volatility in 2024. September’s big Fed cut and the likelihood of more provide optimism for descending rates, but ongoing inflation battles keep them in check.

Previously, the central bank held off on a rate hike at eight consecutive meetings, preferring to see if the economy would keep cooling organically. They finally deemed inflation’s downtrend as organic and made its first cut since 2020. As always, the committee said it would adjust its policies as necessary — which could mean additional cuts or possibly none at all.

Here are just a few strategies to keep in mind if you’re mortgage shopping in the coming months.

Be ready to move quickly

Indecision can lead to failure or missed opportunities. That holds true in home buying as well.

Although the housing market is becoming more balanced than the recent past, it still favors sellers. Prospective borrowers should take the lessons learned from the last few years and apply them now even though conditions are less extreme.

“Taking too long to decide to make an offer can lead to paying more for the home at best and at worst to losing out on it entirely. Buyers should get pre-approved (not pre-qualified) for their mortgage, so that the seller has some certainty about the deal closing. And be ready to close quickly — a long escrow period will put you at a disadvantage.

And it’s definitely not a bad idea to work with a real estate agent who has access to “coming soon” properties, which can give a buyer a little bit of a head start competing for the limited number of homes available,” said Rick Sharga.

If mortgage rates continue on a downward trajectory, more and more buyers will likely enter the market after being priced out on the sidelines. Being decisive (and prepared) should only play to your advantage.

Shopping around isn’t only for the holidays

Since interest rates can vary drastically from day to day and from lender to lender, failing to shop around likely leads to money lost.

Lenders charge different rates for different levels of credit scores. And while there are ways to negotiate a lower mortgage rate, the easiest is to get multiple quotes from multiple lenders and leverage them against each other.

“For potential home buyers, it’s important to get quotes from multiple lenders for a mortgage, as rates can vary dramatically, especially during such a volatile period,” said Odeta Kushi.

As the mortgage market slows due to lessened demand, lenders will be more eager for business. While missing out on the rock-bottom rates of 2020 and 2021 may sting, there’s always a way to use the market to your advantage.

How to shop for interest rates

Rate shopping doesn’t just mean looking at the lowest rates advertised online because those aren’t available to everyone. Typically, those are offered to borrowers with great credit who can put a down payment of 20% or more.

The rate lenders actually offer depends on:

• Your credit score and credit history
• Your personal finances
• Your down payment (if buying a home)
• Your home equity (if refinancing)
• Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV)
• Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI)

To figure out what rate a lender can offer you based on those factors, you have to fill out a loan application. Lenders will check your credit and verify your income and debts, then give you a ‘real’ rate quote based on your financial situation.

You should get three to five of these quotes at a minimum, then compare them to find the best offer. Look for the lowest rate, but also pay attention to your annual percentage rate (APR), estimated closing costs, and ‘discount points’ — extra fees charged upfront to lower your rate.

This might sound like a lot of work. But you can shop for mortgage rates in under a day if you put your mind to it. And shaving just a few basis points off your rate can save you thousands.

Mortgage interest rate FAQ

What are today’s mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are rising, but borrowers can almost always find a better deal by shopping around. Connect with a mortgage lender to find out exactly what rate you qualify for.

¹Today's mortgage rates are based on a daily survey of select lending partners of The Mortgage Reports. Interest rates shown here assume a credit score of 740. See our full loan assumptions here.

Selected sources:

• https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
• http://www.freddiemac.com/research/datasets/refinance-stats/index.page