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It's been slow going getting back in the saddle after last week's trip.  A hearty "thank you" to my team at the office that made it all happen while Greg and I were away.

Although markets appear calm right now, we're sitting in the eye of a storm. 

The Federal Open Market Committee meets for the first time since early-August and since that date, it's been a series of disappointments about the economy, housing, and consumer sentiment. 

Global markets are on notice that U.S. housing issues may be spilling over into other parts of the economy and there hasn't been a day that goes by without some form of speculation about what the Fed will do at today's meeting.

One week ago, I cited a 28 percent chance of the FFR dropping to 5.00%, and a 12 percent change of it staying at 5.250%.  Today, those probabilities are 44 percent and 2 percent, respectively. The chance of a 50 basis points drop to 4.750% remains at about 45 percent.

I say, forget the stats, people.  Just read this: No matter what happens this afternoon, 40 percent of the market will have made a "bad bet" and those players will have to change their bet as soon as they find out that they were wrong. 

That's a lot of traders scrambling for new positions and when those bets change, mortgage rates will run in one direction or the other.  We just don't know in which direction yet and we won't until 2:15 P.M. ET.

Better safe than sorry, I say.  Get in and get locked this morning if you are floating your mortgage rate.  There's just too much risk out there right now.

Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.