What Went Down, Just Came Up
Posted on June 20, 2007
Filed under Mortgage-Backed Securities
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Yesterday was a favorable day for mortgage rates as average housing data and momentum trading carried bond prices higher. Bond prices up, mortgage rates down, of course.
Today, those gains have already been erased.
The Bank of England's June 7 meeting minutes reveal that a rate hike may be imminent. Sweden's Central Bank is telegraphing the same. In response, money is flowing out of U.S. dollars and into the above countries' respective currencies.
A weakening dollar pushes bond prices back down and that is what is reversing yesterday's gain.
All things considered, mortgage bonds should not be moving as much as they are. But, this is the summer season and in the summer, fewer traders show up for work.
Especially during a week like this one in which there is no major data release.
With fewer traders participating in the markets, there are fewer bond buyers to match with sellers, and fewer bond sellers to match with buyers.
Therefore, it is much less likely that a person who wants to buy at a certain price will find somebody who wants to sell at a certain price. Therefore, mortgage bonds (and interest rates) tend to move a lot more sharply during the summer than we're otherwise used to seeing.
Today, three Fed presidents take the stump: Janet Yellen (San Francisco), Timothy Geithner (New York), and Richard Fisher (Dallas). Markets will listen to the Fed speaker for clues inflation and the economy.
If the speakers indicate worry over inflation, mortgage rates will rise in response.
Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

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