The Odds of Fed Funds Rate Changes (March 2007 Version)

Posted on March 21, 2007
Filed under Fed Funds Rate
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Prior to the FOMC's adjournment this afternoon, here is how markets are predicting the future levels of the Fed Funds Rate:

Fed Funds Rate After March Meeting:

5.000: 4% probability for the FFR
5.250: 96% probability for the FFR
5.550: 0% probability for the FFR

Fed Funds Rate After May Meeting (no meeting in April):

5.000: 10% probability for the FFR
5.250: 90% probability for the FFR
5.550: 0% probability for the FFR

Fed Funds Rate After June Meeting:

4.750: 4% probability for the FFR
4.500: 2% probability for the FFR
5.000: 16% probability for the FFR
5.250: 75% probability for the FFR
5.550: 3% probability for the FFR

We'll revisit these predictions after the market has digested this afternoon's press release.

Source
Fed Fund Probabilities :: Current
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, March 21, 2007
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/policy/fedfunds/Index.cfm

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The Odds of Fed Funds Rate Changes (March 2007 Version)

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