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Mortgage rates followed gas prices higher this summer, but they may not follow them back down.

This is because of the risks to the nation's oil supply that have not fully subsided.

The Good: There have been no major storms to disrupt oil pipelines and supply in the United States.

The Bad: Hurricane Season is not over.

The Good: Iran has held the U.N. at bay about their nuclear program and that has kept oil embargos from being enforced

The Bad: There's still no resolution in Iran

The Good: Nigerian rebels have not sabotaged oil pipelines

The Bad: They are armed and threatening the supply

The Badder: Russia has revoked environmental permits tied to a $20 billion pipeline project

The Worse: Global demand for oil is not getting smaller. China and India forge ahead and Americans still drive their guzzlers.

When we look at gas prices coming down, it's because threats to supply have fallen more than demand for oil has grown.

However, we are just one major event away from a huge spike in prices. There isn't enough extra production capacity in the markets to handle a supply-side shock.

Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.