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Before this morning's jobs report, mortgage rates were up 0.375 percent on the week. Post-release, the figure has doubled.

According to the government, the U.S. economy shed just 11,000 jobs in November, a 100,000 job improvement from October and the lowest tally since June 2007. Furthermore, the national Unemployment Rate dropped to 10.0 percent.

The data is building economic optimism on Wall Street, forcing a retracement of the flight-to-quality bets made since October. These safe-haven bond buys dropped rates to their lowest levels of all-time last week. This week, not so much.

There's a massive MBS sell-off in process. Rates unwound 3 weeks of improvement in the first 3 minutes of trading.

Now, if it seems strange to be talking economic recovery while Americans are still -- let's face it -- losing jobs, remember that economic data always needs context and the context here is that Non-Farm Payrolls is a lagging indicator.  This means it's more of a commentary on past economic events than a prediction of future ones.

The jobs report rarely reflects the economy "right now" as illustrated above.

During the Recession of 2001, job loss peaked in October of that year -- 1 month before the recession ended.  Beginning in February, then, even as the economy expanded, job loss continued. It wasn't until October 2002 that job gains went net positive.

The same pattern emerged earlier this year.

• Job loss peaked in January 2009
• The recession ended in February 2009
• Job losses are continuing even as the economy is growing

And this is why today's job report, although negative, is still positive.  The numbers were much better-than-expected, further proof that the U.S. economy is in recovery.

Unfortunately for rate shoppers, though, mortgage markets are getting slammed. Already today, rates are up 0.375 percent.

If you're under contract for a home or otherwise in need of a mortgage, talk to your loan officer about rates as soon as possible. One of the dangerous patterns of which to be concerned is that rates tend to fall slowly and rise quickly.

We had several weeks of rates going lower; it could all unwind in just a day.

For questions about mortgage rates or for what rate you'd qualify, with some notes on your situation. The more you tell me, the faster I can respond with a rate, and my rates are pretty good.

The economy is in recovery. Or so we hear. There appears to be a lot of data in support of the argument:

• Existing Home Sales are up 24 percent in twelve months
• Credit markets appear markedly stable as compared to last year
• The stock market is touching 13-month highs

And while this has been happening, there's been nary a peep from inflation.

In most circumstances, we'd label the argument Case Closed, recession over, blue skies ahead.  Only, this isn't most circumstances.  And a major component of the economy is conspicuously absent -- consumer spending.

Consumer spending is a U.S. keystone, accounting for 70% of the economy.

Without consumer spending, we can't pronounce the recession's death.  Wall Street knows it.  As a consequence, Retail Sales data is the Economists' World equivalent of a rock star this season, getting scrutiny and attention well beyond its data-modeled peers.

The audit's also bringing focus to Consumer Confidence data.

Many analysts believe that confidence correlates to spending.  Looking at the trendline chart, they've got good reason -- there relationship between sales and confidence appears to be direct.  But there's some analysis worth doing, too.

• In a "healthy" economy, consumers spend more than their confidence suggests
• In a "sick" economy, consumers spend less than their confidence suggests

In other words, because our current economy is not yet recovered and because joblessness rests north of 10 percent, expect holiday sales to drag this year.  Consumers will spend even less than they themselves tell the pollsters they're planning to spend. Fear will rule the (shopping) day.

For mortgage rate shoppers, it's wonderful news.

As consumer spending drags, economic doubts will linger.  Tough recovery questions will resurface for 2010 and, until they're retired, mortgage rates won't have much reason to jump. Rates will be way up some days and nicely down on others, but, absent a complete shocker, look for mortgage rates should bounce within the same 5.250% range in which they've resided for the past 12 months.

Predicting mortgage rates is an inexact science but sometimes there are clues to help you. Make consumer confidence and retail sales data two of your guiding lights.  Then, follow me on Facebook or on Twitter to see what the market's doing in real-time.

When you're ready to lock or need a rate quote, . I lend in most states and if I can't help you, I'll point you to a resource that can. I answer all my own emails and my rates are always excellent.

The August jobs report was released this morning.

Unemployment rose to 9.7 percent nationwide as employers shed another 216,000 jobs.  The news may not be as bad as it first seems.

Despite ongoing job losses and a rising Unemployment Rate, the jobs report reinforces the notion that the recession may be ending soon, if it hasn't already.

This is because Wall Street tends to treat employment data as a lagging economic indicator.

1. Businesses are slow to hire new workers when the economy is improving
2. Businesses are slow to fire existing workers when the economy is worsening

Because of this pattern, the monthly jobs report rarely reflects the "right now" of the U.S. economy and Wall Street knows it.  More often, the report reflects the economy as it existed several months ago and, based on data, the economy appears to have broken out of its funk in April or May.

Consider these 2 examples of employment as a lagging indicator:

1. Job losses peaked in January 2009 -- 4 months after the September 2008 Financial Crisis
2. Job losses peaked in October 2001, 1 month before the 2001 recession ended.  Jobs finally turned positive in October 2002 -- 12 months into the subsequent recovery

In other words, jobs data doesn't so much tell us about today as it tells us about yesterday.  It's why mortgage rate are improving this morning. Wall Street expected the jobs data to be a little bit stronger than what it was.

All the talk of rising home values and consumer confidence levels may have left investors too optimistic about jobs and consumer spending.  Today, they're shifting expectations and spelling good news for home buyers and rate shoppers.

On a lightly-traded day because of the holiday weekend, mortgage rates are improving.