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Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or reverse mortgage. For rate quotes, .

The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 27% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 37% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 46% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I predict that rates will remain unchanged over the next 30 days.

My advice not even be appropriate for your particular situation and I'm not always accurate besides. Heck, you may find watching the Back to the Future Theme Song set to lyrics to be a better use of your time.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Mortgage rates can't break their range. It's been like this since May."

Earlier this week, we talked about Technical Analysis and its effect on mortgage rates.  Technical Analysis is a pseudo-science, a system meant to predict the future of a security's pricing based on its past performance.  By watching trends over time, some traders say, you can pinpoint where a particular market is going to go next.

A quick look at Wikipedia's Technical Analysis page shows how highly nuanced the art form can be.  So nuanced, in fact, that some call it "made up".

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle -- and for an interesting reason.  If enough people believe a security will follow a pattern and trade on that belief, the pattern is eventually fulfilled.

In this sense, Technical Analysis can be self-fulfilling. It's why rates, over the medium-term, should stay relatively unchanged.

Since the start of the year, a map of mortgage rates shows pricing contained within a zone. When rates get above the zone, they fall.  When rates go below the zone, they rise.  This should continue until an outside economic shocks the system and shakes the zone loose.

This "shock" can come in several forms. It would reset the current rate range higher or lower from where's its at now. Some examples include:

• An abrupt change in U.S. employment trends
• An especially damaging Hurricane Season
• An unexpected and sharp change in U.S. monetary policy

Any one of these events would bust the technical trading patterns by which markets have been made and, at that points, it's all bets are off on what happens to mortgage rates next.

For now, though, it'll be some days up and some days down, but overall, unchanged.

If you're not working with a loan officer and want to work with me, I'm never too far from my phone or so just reach out anytime.  I'll help you try to time a market bottom so you don't overpay on your rate or your fees.

Or, watch rates in the bankground on Twitter. I post market updates throughout the day. Send a message to @mortgagereports so I know you're listening.

Forget about that 4.500 percent, 0-point mortgage rate you passed on last month.  It's gone.  Today, conforming mortgage rates are bearing down on 6 percent.

For a homeowner in Cincinnati with a $300,000, fixed-rate home loan, the impact is huge.  Since the unofficial start of summer, rising mortgage rates have added $240 to a monthly mortgage payment.

There are two reasons why rates are rising -- one fundamental, and one superstition-like.  We can't ignore either.

The fundamental reason rates are rising is evidence is emerging that shows the global economy in recovery.  There's bound to be setbacks from month-to-month, but overall, the foundation for economic growth appears to be in place. 

Unfortunately for active home buyers and shoulda-woulda-coulda refinancers in Cincinnati and everywhere else, the recovery is coming faster and with more force than was expected.  The pace of the recovery is forcing traders to account for longer-term inflation and inflation just kills mortgage rates.

The superstition reason is important, too.  It's about heeding trends and patterns -- something Wall Street players call Technical Analysis.  It's not super-important that you get how Technical Analysis works, you just need to know the basic premise behind it.

Technical Analysis is a pseudo-science; a way of studying markets that says patterns repeat themselves over time. Ironically, in a blatant case of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, because traders believe in pattern watching, they often cause the pattern to be fulfilled. 

This is why mortgage rates sometimes dip and soar for no apparent reason -- their strings are getting pulled by technical traders.  And, part of what's driving rates up right now should eventually drop them back down.  Maybe not to 4.500 percent, but somewhere close, perhaps.

If you've missed the bottom in rates, there's still hope:

• Technical trading patterns should eventually draw rates back down
• The Federal Reserve will likely accelerate its commitment to low rates
• Mortgage rates tend to be seasonal and cyclical

Make sure you don't miss the next rate drop.  It will happen -- we just don't know when. 

Of course, you have a day job and have probably spent more time researching rates than you want to already.  two terrific ways to get your mortgage rate news are to:

1. Follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/mortgagereports
2. Get this blog delivered by email each day

Rates move too fast to rely on slow-to-break stories on TV or in the papers.  You'll want mortgage rate news in real-time and you'll want my advice on whether to lock a rate or wait it out for something "better", too.  Reach out to me  and I'll put you on my mortgage rate "watch list".