Mortgage rates tend to climb with the mercury. It's been the case in each of the last 4 years.  As spring months turn into summer, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rises.

This year should be no different.

The Environment Is Ripe For Rates To Rise

With mortgage rates artificially suppressed -- domo arigato, Mr. Bernanke -- and U.S. inflation expectations at a minimum, the current mortgage rate environment is extremely consumer-friendly. Few people expected 5.000 percent rates to be available this late into a recovery.

But with the economy showing signs that recovery is sustainable, pressure is on for rates to rise.

• Retail Sales data shows consumers are out spending again
• Job growth gets closer to net positive, month-by-month
• Home values have stopped falling, and, in some markets, are rebounding

Each of these factors draws money out of the relative safety of the bond market and into the riskier world of stocks.

Furthermore, the price of gas is rising.  It's up 20 cents per gallon in the last 30 days. No doubt you've noticed. Rising gas prices are inflationary and when gas prices rise, we find that mortgage rates are usually right behind.

The Fed's Buyback Program Ends 8 Days From Now

There's another reason for rates to rise this season, too.  It's the Federal Reserve's mortgage buyback program.

More specifically, its pending ending.

The Fed's buyback program was, by most accounts, a success.  Rates are an estimated one percent lower than they would have been without the Fed's intervention, and the rate drop happened without much disruption in day-to-day mortgage market trading.

However, the Fed's program ends next week.  March 31, to be exact.  And when the Fed leaves the market, there's going to have to be someone to pick up the slack demand or else mortgage rates will have nowhere to go but up. This is because mortgage rates move opposite of mortgage bond prices.

Yields rise as a result.

Beware Of Inflation

Inflation expectations are low for now, but that can change quickly.  It only takes a series of strong economic data to make Wall Street question what's really ahead for the U.S. consumer.  Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates and its presence makes rates rise.

Therefore, use the mortgage rate chart to your advantage.  You can see what's happened to mortgage rates in each of the last 4 summers -- 2010 should  follow suit.  And when the mortgage market turns for the worse, it's going to turn quick.  Be ready for it.

Get Locked In March Or April

and we can talk about your mortgage situation -- purchase or refinance.  You don't need to lock a rate today -- you just need to be ready to get it done because when it's time, it's time. As soon as you notice rates are higher, it'll probably be too late to do anything about it.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati or Chicago.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 36% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 18% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 46% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent on learning that George Washington invented instant coffee than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Markets move into wait-and-see mode on the economy and the Fed. "

It's been a wild few weeks in the mortgage markets.  December was a shoot-out that left every "floater" dead. Since the New Year, though, markets have been easing and rates have been falling.

Today, mortgage rates are at their best levels of the year.

In an it-won't-sound-so-strange-once-you-understand-how-mortgage-rates-work kind of way, rates are down for the same reason they were up -- expectations on the economy.

See, when December started, the jobs report showed net job growth very close to flat.  Wall Street got very excited about it. Plus, housing showed more growth and Retail Sales punched in way bigger than projections.

At the same time, members of the Fed were stumping for a raise in the Fed Funds Rate and a need to be wary of runaway growth.  This, too, got Wall Street excited and as of December 31, 2009, the economy hinted at recovering and expanding at ludicrous speed.

Because of this, mortgage rates made their biggest 1-month jump of the year in December. Since then, however, it's been a mixed bag.

January's job report and retail sales report both went negative, and Pending Home Sales failed to impress.  Furthermore, there's been a general softness about the economy and Fed members have gone silent on Fed Funds Rate matters.

It's a reversal from December and expectations for 2010 are dialed back a bit. Mortgage rates are falling, but have likely bottomed out for now.

We're witnessing a stasis. The economic forces of expansion and contraction seem balanced.  Data is contradictory and difficult to interpret.  Wall Street is unsure of what's next.

Mortgage rates should stay in a tight range between now and the Super Bowl.  There will be days when rates are down, and days when rates are up. The key is picking the right day to make your rate lock.

Be patient, but not too patient. Locking mortgages has always been a game of timing.  And for that, you may need some help.

If you don't have a loan officer you can call up for advice, know that you can always call me. Or, , whichever is easier. I handle all of my own email and I would happy to help you lock your mortgage rate.

My bank has good, low rates. Just ask me about it.

The economy is in recovery. Or so we hear. There appears to be a lot of data in support of the argument:

• Existing Home Sales are up 24 percent in twelve months
• Credit markets appear markedly stable as compared to last year
• The stock market is touching 13-month highs

And while this has been happening, there's been nary a peep from inflation.

In most circumstances, we'd label the argument Case Closed, recession over, blue skies ahead.  Only, this isn't most circumstances.  And a major component of the economy is conspicuously absent -- consumer spending.

Consumer spending is a U.S. keystone, accounting for 70% of the economy.

Without consumer spending, we can't pronounce the recession's death.  Wall Street knows it.  As a consequence, Retail Sales data is the Economists' World equivalent of a rock star this season, getting scrutiny and attention well beyond its data-modeled peers.

The audit's also bringing focus to Consumer Confidence data.

Many analysts believe that confidence correlates to spending.  Looking at the trendline chart, they've got good reason -- there relationship between sales and confidence appears to be direct.  But there's some analysis worth doing, too.

• In a "healthy" economy, consumers spend more than their confidence suggests
• In a "sick" economy, consumers spend less than their confidence suggests

In other words, because our current economy is not yet recovered and because joblessness rests north of 10 percent, expect holiday sales to drag this year.  Consumers will spend even less than they themselves tell the pollsters they're planning to spend. Fear will rule the (shopping) day.

For mortgage rate shoppers, it's wonderful news.

As consumer spending drags, economic doubts will linger.  Tough recovery questions will resurface for 2010 and, until they're retired, mortgage rates won't have much reason to jump. Rates will be way up some days and nicely down on others, but, absent a complete shocker, look for mortgage rates should bounce within the same 5.250% range in which they've resided for the past 12 months.

Predicting mortgage rates is an inexact science but sometimes there are clues to help you. Make consumer confidence and retail sales data two of your guiding lights.  Then, follow me on Facebook or on Twitter to see what the market's doing in real-time.

When you're ready to lock or need a rate quote, . I lend in most states and if I can't help you, I'll point you to a resource that can. I answer all my own emails and my rates are always excellent.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo mortgages or payday loans. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 45% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 55% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent waiting for the punch line than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The malls are empty and so are calls for higher rates."

Consumer spending drives the economy.  Without spending, there's no growth and, as a result, tepid retail sales reports force Wall Street to rethink its bets on U.S. economic recovery.

It's a primary reason why rates return to 5 percent again and again. The economy is back from the brink -- banks are healthier, investment is returning, household net worth is up -- but consumers continue to stand en garde. Confidence is down.

A recovery is not a recovery until consumers buy-in. Literally. And, right now, that's not happening.

Over the next 6 weeks, retail sales will be in focus. How consumers are spending their money; if consumers are spending their money.  Joblessness is a key equational part of the equation, too.

Therefore, keep an eye on your local mall for shoppers, and watch for unemployment rates. Mortgage rates will respond to both between now and January 1.  At the first sign of strength, markets will unleash rates to jump toward 6 percent.

Suddenly, the December 4 jobs report is of huge import.

For now, though, mortgage rates are low. Take advantage.  When rates finally make that break higher, the action will be fast. You won't have much time to react -- maybe 3 days to a week at most.

To stay ahead of mortgage rate changes, follow my "Float or Lock" advice on Facebook and Twitter. It's free and should help you make better decisions with your rate locks.

And if you find my advice useful, or call me so we can work together. I answer all my own emails and my rates are excellent.