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Like in 2006, 2007 and 2008, Autumn 2009 is marked by falling leaves and falling mortgage rates.

The trend looks more like a pattern.

Based on Freddie Mac data of the last 4 years, 30-year fixed mortgage rates rise from January through August, and fall through fall. There's 6 weeks left until January.  The clock may be ticking for today's home buyers and rate shoppers.

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates are sub-5 percent right now and, by most measures, there's no good reason for it.

• The U.S. dollar is extremely weak -- usually a negative force on mortgage rates
• The price of gold reflects a healthy fear of inflation -- usually a negative force on mortgage rates
• The stock market is on a tear -- usually a negative force on mortgage rates

Furthermore, the economy is no longer in free-fall which is the scenario that dropped rates below 5 percent in the first place.  Mortgage rates are poised to rise and, when they do, they'll rise in a hurry.

See, that's the other trend in mortgage rates.  Rates rise much faster than they fall.  Just ask anyone on the wrong side of the Memorial Day Massacre about how that turned out.   As low as rates are now, we could be looking at 7 percent mortgage rates in a flash.

Timing mortgage markets is unpossible.

As a homeowners, it's easy to keep up with rate trends on a weekly basis with the newspaper or the aforementioned Freddie Mac data, but markets move faster than that.  They're minute-by-minute and ever-changing.  Unfortunately, laypersons don't get access to mortgage bond data for free.  Even the U.S. Treasury market fails as a proxy anymore.

So, to keep up with rates as best you can -- follow my feed on Twitter or fan me on Facebook. I post near-real-time mortgage market updates several times per time  and I usually post advance notice on rate changes for the worse.

You can also get a feel for what rates are doing right now by using the "Rate Offer" form at the top-right of this page. If your situation needs more than 8 fields to summarize, .

I answer all my own mail.

If history is an indicator, mortgage rates should ease a bit into 2010.

Data from Freddie Mac since 2006 shows that 30-year fixed mortgage rates tend to rise during the summer months, and fall through the fall.

So far, 2009 is staying true to form.

After a post-Memorial Day mortgage rate run-up, the 30-year fixed idled through June, July and August.  And then, on Labor Day, as if on cue, Cincinnati homeowners caught a break.  Mortgage rates began to drop.

By the first week in October, rates had returned to early-May levels, the damage of the summer unwound.

But for homeowners in want of a refinance, 2009 may not be the year to wait on lower-rates-to-come.  This year -- this year in particular -- is very different from the 3 years prior.  This year, the economy is emerging from recession as opposed to entering one.

Today's market environment is distinctly different from what we're used to.

1. The Federal Reserve is ending its mortgage market support instead of beginning it
2. Legitimate concerns about inflation are resurfacing on Wall Street
3. World economies are showing signs of life, spurring global equity investment
4. The U.S. Dollar is sagging against other currencies, devaluing mortgage bonds

Individually, these events exact a measurable, upward force on mortgage rates.  Together, they could completely wreck today's low-rate environment.

We could be looking at 7 percent mortgage rates in a flash, or rates could ease into the New Year.

Either outcome is plausible and that's why timing a market bottom is so challenging.

As a rate shopper, it's important to know what markets are doing at any given moment.  Unfortunately, there's no authorized source that gives the information for free.  Even the U.S. Treasury market fails as a proxy anymore.

So, to keep up with rates on your own, do it the free way -- follow my feed on Twitter or fan me on Facebook. I post near-real-time mortgage market updates several times daily and -- because I know how the banks play The Rate Game -- I post advance notice about when a rate change is about to happen.

Generally, I'm giving about 15 minutes notice.

You can also get a feel for what rates are doing right now by using the "Rate Offer" form at the top-right of this page. If your situation can't be summed up in 8 simple fields, .