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Mortgage Pricing Gets Unpredictable. It’s Time To Lock Your Mortgage Rate.

Posted on March 1, 2010
Filed under On Mortgage Rate Movement
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Mortgage Rate Change Frequency Rate Sheets Per Day April 2008-February 2010

Mortgage rates were more volatile in February than in January, making mortgage rate shopping a little bit more difficult.  Lenders averaged 1.55 rate sheets per day.

What Is A Mortgage Rate Sheet?

A rate sheet is a mortgage bank's "menu". It lists the rate-and-points combination for every product available. Some lender rate sheets are 1 page long; some are 10 pages or more. They include prices for products including:

  • 30-year, 20-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages
  • Short-term ARMs like 1-year and 3-year products
  • Long-term ARMs like 5-year, 7-year and 10-year products
  • All variations of jumbo and super jumbo mortgages
  • The complete line of FHA and VA mortgages
  • Loans for condotels and non-warrantable condos

Rate sheets change with the market and although last month's rate sheets were relatively change-free as compared to last summer, there were some interesting footnotes.

Under The Surface, Not So Tame

February's mortgage market could be categorized as "on edge". For the most part, rates didn't change intra-day.  It was common for lenders to issue rate sheets in the morning and stick to their pricing through market close.

In February, rates held firm 13 out of 20 days -- 65% of the time. That's more than double December 2009's frequency and the highest of the last 2 years.

On days in which rates did change, though, they changed a lot. There were two days on which rates changed 3 times and one day on which rates changed 4 times.

Prior to last month, we hadn't seen a 4-sheet day since October 2009.

Mortgage Rates Will Change Rapidly In March

As the United States fortifies its economy with slow, steady growth, and as the Federal Reserve withdraws its support for mortgage markets, mortgage rates are poised to spike.  However, sporadic reports of economic weakness have undermined that eventuality.

If you've been floating a mortgage rate in 2010, you've played with fire and not been burned. Going forward, get out the turnout gear. Rates are going to rise -- and they're going to rise quickly.

Be ready for it because you won't see the rate hike in the news until it's too late.  You won't see it in real-time.

But I will.

Get Rate Sheet Updates As They're Happening

As a loan officer, I track mortgage data that's unavailable to the public, and I summarize it online via my Twitter stream and occasionally on Facebook. I send alerts before new rate sheets come out.

Furthermore, if you're actively rate shopping in Cincinnati or Chicago or somewhere else that I lend, make sure to . I work for a self-funded bank and my bank's rate sheets are often cheaper as compared to my peers.

(Author's Note: Thank you, Jake Planton, for your help with research)


Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

Tags: Mortgage Pricing, mortgage rates, Rate Sheets

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Predicting February’s Mortgage Rate Behavior Using January’s Market Data

Posted on February 1, 2010
Filed under On Mortgage Rate Movement
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Average rate sheets per day May 2008 - January 2010

Mortgage rates regained a sense of calm last month as markets recovered from a tumultuous December.  After shedding 300 basis points to close out 2009 -- that's 3 discount points per loan, by the way -- January's pricing recovered by nearly two-thirds.

Rates eased lower day by day in the first month of 2010 and, more importantly to rate shoppers, rates were mostly steady.

On average, mortgage lenders issued just 1.4 rate sheets per day in January, or 7 per week. Mortgage rates haven't been that stable on day-to-day basis in 10 months.

But first, a definition: What is a rate sheet? A rate sheet is a mortgage lender's pricing menu.  Rate sheets lists the rate-and-fee combinations for every mortgage products under the sun, including:

  • 30-year, 20-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages
  • 5-year, 7-year and 10-year adjustable rate mortgages
  • All variations of jumbo and super jumbo mortgages
  • The complete line of FHA and VA mortgages
  • Loans for condotels and non-warrantable condos

If a lender offers it, it's on a rate sheet.

The very nature of mortgage markets means that rate sheets are in constant flux.  It's why a mortgage rate is rarely good for more than a few hours.  Similar to beef or lobster, "market price" changes all the time. You can't rely on last night's menu.

New day, new costs and if your current Good Faith Estimate and/or rate quote is older than 5-and-a-half hours, it's officially outdated. Lenders won't honor it.  It's time to start again.

Now, the good news is that rates are relatively tame.  Getting 5 hours-plus to lock a rate is a gift from the Mortgage Gods.  Unfortunately, though,the last time rates settled in like this, it was just a brief calm in a turbulent time.  Sort of like the eye of a hurricane.

From last March, you can see the "V" shape in the chart above. I suspect we're in a similar situation now.

The economy is recovering quickly, corporate earnings are booming, and the Fed is withdrawing its support for the mortgage market. Sooner or later, mortgage markets are going to sell off.  It hasn't happened yet because demand for U.S debt has been high.

But, as the global economy emerges from this generation's worst recession, investment dollars will even out between the U.S. and elsewhere and, when that does happens, it's yet one more reason for rates to jump.

You'd best be ready for it.

As a loan officer, I watch real-time mortgage market data that's not published to the papers or on TV. If you need to know what rates are doing, you need to be watching my Twitter stream, or following me on Facebook. I post regular updates and tend to alert before rate sheets change.

If you need to lock a mortgage rate, make sure you're getting my updates.

Furthermore, if you're actively rate shopping for a home in Cincinnati, Chicago, or somewhere else that I lend, make sure you ask me for a rate quote. Because I work for a self-funded bank, my rates and fees are often less than my broker peers and especially better than the correspondents.

Be sure to ask me for . I love to work with my readers.


Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

Tags: Hurricane, Mortgage Pricing, Rate Sheets

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