Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati or Chicago.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 50% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 29% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 21% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent learning how to suck at Facebook than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The reality of the Fed's mortgage market withdrawal sets in this week."

This is going to read like a recap from last week, but let's review the highlights.

When the economy hit the skids in September 2008, the government made a massive intervention.  In addition to formal stimulus from Congress, the Federal Reserve did what it could to loosen up the credit markets.

One of the Fed's most well-known programs was its commitment to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed bonds in the open market. Internal studies from the Fed say the program lowered rates by 1 percent last year.

The program ends March 31, 2010.

Now, logic dictates that if the Fed's presence had rates down 1.000 percent in 2009 -- all things equal -- the Fed's absence will have rates up by the same 1.000 percent in 2010. The question remains, "how soon until it happens?"

The Fed has been weaning markets off the program, dropping purchases to just one-third of its March 2009 peak purchase levels. And while it's been doing that, there's been fewer originations to create new supply.

For this reason, some analysts think fears of a Fed pullout are overblown; that rates won't rise by a full percent. And that viewpoint may ultimately be proved correct.

For now, though, the prudent thing to do is to treat the situation like NFL referees treat an instant replay request -- stick with the original call until you've got sufficient evidence to overturn it. Right now, that evidence doesn't exist. It won't exist until April.

Naturally, you don't have until April.  You need to know what to do right now so here it is.

Get locked.

Mortgage rates have receded from December's highs and have been sitting in a pocket for about a week. At some point, Wall Street will start pricing bond for the Fed's MBS exit and you don't want to be on the wrong side of that window.

Locking mortgages is a game of timing and, for that, you may need some help.

If you don't have a loan officer you can call up for advice, know that you can always call me. Or, , whichever is easier. I handle all of my own email and I would happy to get your mortgage rate lock ready for you. The key is to be ready before the market changes and that's what I do best.

Also, my bank has good, low rates. Just ask me about it.

There's an old adage in the mortgage business: "Mortgage markets take the stairs down and the elevator up."  It's supposed to mean that mortgage rates rise faster than they fall.

It turns out the saw has no teeth.

Looking at data from the last 14 months, at nearly every price change delta of consequence, mortgage price improvements outnumbered deteriorations. An "improvement" pushes mortgage rates lower.  A deterioration moves them higher.

• Daily change of 0.2500 : 18 improvements, 8 deteriorations
• Daily change of 0.3125 : 27 improvements, 20 deteriorations
• Daily change of 0.3750 : 4 improvements, 11 deteriorations
• Daily change of 0.4375 : 13 improvements, 10 deteriorations

The trend continues at the higher price change points, of which each is a huge, one-day change in pricing. A 0.500 pricing change can move mortgage rates by as much as a quarter-percent.

• Daily change of 0.5000-0.7500 : 18 improvements, 15 deteriorations
• Daily change of 0.7500-1.000 : 8 improvements, 3 deteriorations
• Daily change of greater than 1.000 : 10 improvements, 11 deteriorations

Another interesting observation is that on the days of nominal price change, the day on which pricing changed by less than 25 basis points, markets tended to worsen.  From this pattern, we can infer that traders want to move mortgage pricing higher but don't have the conviction to make it stick long-term.

Which, of course, brings us to the other well-known saying: "Don't fight the Fed."  So far this year, that saying has held true.

Mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed securities pricing and I get my data from MBSRateWatch in real-time. If you don't subscribe but need to stay current on rates, follow me on Twitter or on Facebook.  I often post updates when markets are moving and that can mean the difference between getting a good rate and getting a bad one.

This is a short list of things that don't control mortgage rates:

1. 10-Year Treasury Note

Over long periods, the 10-year treasury trends with mortgage-backed securities. On any given day, however, the two can move in opposite directions. You can't watch the 10-year ticker on TV and think you know where mortgage rates are going.

2. The Fed Funds Rate

The Fed Funds Rate is the rate at which banks borrow from each other overnight. A mortgage rate, by contrast, is the rate at which a homeowner borrows from a lender. If the Fed Funds Rate and mortgage rates were connected, this chart wouldn't be so jagged.

3. Ben Bernanke

Ben Bernanke is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the group that sets the Fed Funds Rate. His influence on mortgage rates, therefore, is muted. However, Bernanke's Fed has been a buyer of mortgage bonds in 2009 so its influence on rates is somewhat elevated. The buying schedule ends in March 2010.

4. Congress

Congress can sway mortgage markets with policies and rhetoric, but as the legislative branch of the U.S. government, its influence on mortgage rates remains indirect. No matter what it says or does to influence the economy, it's still the traders in the mortgage markets that have to take the bait.

5. Chuck Norris

Although Chuck Norris can beat a brick wall in a game of tennis, his legend is no match for mortgage rates. When markets decide they want to rise, they rise.

There's only one thing that controls mortgage rates -- the price of mortgage-backed bonds. Unfortunately, there's no publicly-available tool to watch how mortgage-backed bonds are changing on an hour-to-hour basis.

As a loan officer, I pay for a premium data feed to track mortgage-backed bonds in real-time. I post semi-regular updates to my Facebook Fan page and to Twitter.

For some people, though, that's not personal enough and I understand.

If I can ever help with your individual rate lock decision or to act as a sounding board for your mortgage ideas, . I answer my emails personally and am happy to help you with strategy.