Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Predictions Only

By way of disclosure, these mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages only. The survey is national, covering Cincinnati, Ohio; Potomac, Maryland; and everywhere else.

FHA streamline refinances are not covered because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 21% think mortgage rates will increase
• 5% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 74% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this story about a guy sent to Mars for a reality TV show that ends up gets canceled on Day 36 of shooting.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"What goes down, must go up. Rates reached a plateau three weeks ago. Get ready for the rising."

Mortgage markets can't seem to break through resistance. It's signal that higher rates are coming.

Momentum Lasted 14 Weeks. Now It's Stopped. Lock In.

Mortgage markets are stuck. If you've been shopping for a loan lately, you've likely noticed that there's been no real change in mortgage rates going back 3 or 4 weeks. Or, maybe you haven't noticed.

Either way, it's bad for rate shoppers. Pricing has hit a wall and getting set to reverse higher. It's all about momentum and when you watch what rates have been doing since April, it'll all make sense.

Check out this timeline:

• Early-April : Eyjafjallajökull erupts, starting rates downward
• Mid-April : Greece sovereign debt issues arise; the slide continues.
• Early-June : Soft U.S. data keeps rates falling
• Mid-June : Mortgage rates reach new, all-time lows
• Late-June : Mortgage rates continue to make new, all-time lows
• Early-July : Mortgage rates bottom out; the Refi Boom begins

But since early-July, there's been no movement in the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, no movement in the 15-year fixed, and no movement in the ARMs. Rates are "stuck".

And, unfortunately, mortgage markets don't work like strength-training where a person plateaus for a few weeks, and then makes more gains.

In the Mortgage World, when momentum stops, it's because there's a force pulling in the opposite direction.

Lock That Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

After 14 weeks, mortgage rate momentum has stopped dead in its tracks. This should be your signal to lock in that rate.

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

For the better part of the last 9 months, homeowners with adjusting adjustable rate mortgages have watched their mortgage rates fall.

As short-term solutions go, it's been far smarter to let the mortgage adjust than to refinance into a new ARM or fixed rate loan. Until now, that is. It's time to convert that soon-to-adjust ARM into something new.

This is the opposite advice we gave in February when LIBOR was ultra-low.

The Math For Adjusting Mortgage Rates Is Worsening

Earlier this year, 3-year, 5-year and 7-year ARMs adjusted to as low as 2.875 percent. It was a godsend to households worried their ARMs would actually go up in rate.  2.875 percent is pretty excellent.

Today, though, that's not happening.

Households with June-adjusting mortgages would get a 3.625 percent rate based on today's market. And if the issues in broader Eurozone don't settle themselves down quickly, later this year, households with ARMs could see them adjust to 5.000 percent or higher.

It's all because of how adjustable rate mortgages work.

1. For some fixed period of time, the initial mortgage rate stays constant
2. When the fixed period ends, the rate is recalculated based on a formula
3. Every 12 months thereafter, the rate recalculates again against the same formula

The formula by which ARMs recalculate is as follows:

The "variable" and the "constant" will vary from ARM to ARM, but if you've got a conforming home loan originated after 2002, the chances are very high that your variable is the 12-month LIBOR and your constant is 2.250 percent.

In other words, to calculate your adjusting mortgage rate, just add 2.25% to LIBOR and voila -- that's your new mortgage rate.

LIBOR Is Rising, Rising, Rising

LIBOR stands for London Interbank Offered Rate.  It's the interest rate at which banks lend money to each other and LIBOR tends to rise and fall with the stability of the global banking system.  It spiked in 2008 after Lehman Brothers failed and it's showing a similar pattern today.

And as debt crisis spreads from Greece to Spain to the rest of Europe, the risk of lending amongst the banks gets larger.

Hence, LIBOR rises, too.

The 12-month LIBOR bottomed out in February 2010.  It's up 68 percent since. That's bad news for homeowners whose mortgages are adjusting in June and later this year.

A New Mortgage Is Now As Cheap As An Adjusting One

The same dynamic that is causing adjusting mortgage rates to adjust higher is also causing new adjustable rate mortgage rates to drop. Homeowners can opt for a new ARM at the same rate or better than to what rate their existing loan would adjust.

In bullet points, it looks like this:

1. Let your mortgage rate adjust to 3.625% and adjust every 12 months thereafter
2. Take a new mortgage at 3.625% and get the rate locked for 3 years or longer

Taking a new ARM looks like a complete no-brainer right now, so long as you can keep your closing costs to a minimum.  You don't want to wash out your payment savings with huge costs you'll never recoup.

What To Do About Your ARM

If your ARM is adjusting and you want to know if it's better to refinance or let the adjustment happen, and we can have a conversation about what's best for you.

With "new" mortgage rates at their lowest levels of forever all-time, this is truly the best time to ditch your adjusting ARM for a new one, or a fixed rate loan.

Call or email me anytime. We'll figure out your plan.

As a mortgage rate shopper in Cincinnati, geopolitics can either be your dream or your nightmare.

Lately, it's been the former.

Mortgage Rates React To Politics

The mortgage market is a living, breathing organism, susceptible to outside influence.

Some influences are easy for which to prepare.  We call them "calendared" events.  Things like the release of Existing Home Sales data, jobs numbers or an FOMC meeting -- these are events we know are coming and for which we can devise a rate lock strategy.

It's the non-calendared events, however, that can throw the markets for a loop.  You can't make a plan for something if you don't know it's coming.  You can only hope the market moves in your favor.

Right now, we're in the midst of a 7-week, non-calendared event.

• Late-March : Greece debt problems start to surface
• Early-April : Eyjafjallajokull erupts in Iceland
• Mid-April : Greece debt problems worsen
• Late-April : Civil unrest in Greece and PIIGS contagion fears
• Early-May : Greece contagion spreads to Eurozone

And then today, North Korea is threatening military action against South Korea.

Markets can't prepare for non-calendared events like they can a jobs report.  For example, if the jobs report is stronger-than-expected, we know that mortgage rates will rise. If the jobs report is worse-than-expected, we know that mortgage rates will fall.

With geopolitical happenings, on the other hand, we often have no basis.  Markets react on emotion rather than fact and it makes for a wild, rickety roller-coaster ride. Mortgage rates end up changing multiple times per day, and make big movements at a time.

North Korea + Eurozone = The Lowest Mortgage Rates Ever

Thankfully for rate shoppers, geopolitics have been pushing mortgage rates down. Way down.

As of the time of posting, 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rates have moved lower on the day and now successfully pushed through to their lowest levels of all-time.

Let's say it again : Of all time.

Now, this isn't true for all loans, of course. We're only talking about conforming mortgages.  Mortgage rates on many jumbo and super-jumbo loans are actually getting worse.  The same is true for certain portfolio products.  This is because mortgage rates on these products is not based on the mortgage-backed securities market -- they're based on bank-risk and bank-risk is growing.

Seriously -- Make Time To Get Yourself A Rate Quote

The problem with markets run by fear is that fear can quickly turn to greed.  And when it does, low mortgage rates start to go away.  Get in touch with your loan officer right away and find out if refinancing is an option.

If you can save some cash each month plus find a reasonable break-even point on your loan's costs-vs-savings, get it done. The math is favorable right now and you've got North Korea to thank for it.

A few pointers for getting low rates:

1. Try not to take too long in the "shopping" process. Rates can rise by 1/4 percent at a time while you're jockeying to save an eighth.  You'll lose in the end.
2. Try to call a loan officer directly and not the call center number on your statement.
3. Watch my Twitter feed for near-real time market updates. You'll want to know what the market is doing.

And, if you don't have a loan officer to call, you can always call or . I am an active loan officer, I answer all my own emails, and my rates are as low as anyone's. Make sure you mention you read my blog, too.

Looking for a mortgage rate prediction? I am a weekly participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey may have the answers you need.

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati or Milwaukee. Furthermore, unique property types including Chicago non-warrantable condos, condotels and the 5-10 Properties program may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 24% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 24% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 52% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent with chickens, monkeys and ducks.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The last three times mortgage rates fell to these levels, it was short-lived and reversed in a hurry. If you haven't locked in yet, consider this Last Call."

In the Mortgage World, the trend is your friend. Ignore past history at your own peril.

First, Why Mortgage Rates Are Still So Low

Next verse, same as the last verse.

Since early-April, we've been talking on the same theme -- mortgage rates benefit when credit markets go haywire, like what Greece's debt crisis has sparked. The cause is something called "safe haven buying".

Alternatively, safe haven buying is known as "flight-to-quality", or "risk aversion".

Regardless of what you call it, though, the patterns is distinguished by a specific trading pattern in which investors sells higher-risk assets in favor of lower-risk assets.

A high-risk asset could be something like a junk bond, or an emerging market's currency. A low-risk asset is something like a government-backed bond, or the U.S. dollar.

So, when credit markets get bad, investors move to the safety of bonds.  And when credit markets get really bad, they move to the safest bonds they can find.

Right now, with all of Europe surrounded by a giant question mark, that "safest place" has become the U.S. market. Everything dollar-denominated is winning.  Mortgage bonds included.

Safe haven buying increases demand for bonds and more demand drives rates lower.

Safe Haven Buying Doesn't Last Forever

European credit strife is shifting U.S. mortgage rates lower, but it's a temporary condition.  Mortgage rates won't stay low like this for long. For a few reasons:

First, over time, markets always return to normal. Fear gets replaced by greed and profit-taking takes hold. Sometimes this happens overnight, sometimes it takes months or years.  But it happens every time.  There is no "new normal". 30-year mortgage rates don't sit below 5 percent forever.

Second, technical trading is still a force on Wall Street. Different from the emotional nature of safe haven buying, technical trading is pattern-based trading, often executed by computer programs.

Technical trading looks for peaks, valleys, and humps in the history of a security's price, and assumes those peaks, valleys and humps will repeat themselves. The computers then make trades based on those assumptions which, in essence, actually causes the pattern to repeat. Think of it like a self-fulfilling prophecy for Wall Street securities.

Right now, we're at a pricing peak and looking down the cliff.

And, lastly, mortgage rates can't stay low like this because the Federal Reserve is holding hundreds of billions of mortgage-backed bonds on its books and, although it's said there's no rush to sell, with so much demand for the bonds, safe haven buying helps the Fed make an orderly exit.

It's tough to dump close to a trillion dollars of supply into a market without causing prices to fall.  Even if it's at a measured pace.

The Prudent Choice Is To Lock Your Mortgage Rate Now

There's very little reason for mortgage rates to drop right now. Markets have squeezed a ton of gains out the European debt scenario. It's time to move into locking position.

MRV -- Mortgage Rate Velocity -- is as high as its been in a year and rate changes come quickly. If you haven't given a loan application to your loan officer, think about doing it today. The longer you wait, the more this next loan may cost you.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process. To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or . And be sure to give applications to other loan officers, too. Don't worry -- your credit score won't be damaged if you do it the right way.

Home buyers in Cincinnati are getting a terrific break this week.  Mortgage rates are falling because of events occurring 5,444 miles away.

Growing concerns that the Greek government will default on debt are pushing the nation's risk premiums beyond junk levels.

At one point yesterday, the 2-year Greece note yielded a whopping 25 percent.

Safe Haven Buying Draws Rates Lower

When investors require a 25% return on investment, you can be sure they're sensing a potential default.

And now, that default concern is now spilling beyond the Greek border to the rest of the PIIGS -- Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain. Contagion mentality has set in.

Markets have moved into Safe Haven mode.

"Safe Haven buying" is market jargon. It describes a risk-averting trading pattern that tends to emerge during periods of economic uncertainty. It's characterized by large groups of investors moving money away from riskier investments and into safer ones.

When in doubt, get out.

Mortgage Bonds Get An Unexpected Boost

Safe haven buying is a logical approach to investing, really. Rather than doubling down on a risky bet, cash out to protect against further loss.  They take those proceeds and stash the cash somewhere safe until certainty returns.

This is why safe haven is sometimes referred to as a "Flight to Quality". Money flows from risk to risk-less.

Either way, mortgage rate shoppers have cause to yell Opa!  Mortgage bonds unwound 3 weeks of losses in 20 minutes Tuesday for no other reason than because of Greece and fear of a debt default.

30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to 5 percent for the first time since March.

See, when the Federal Reserve left the mortgage-backed market March 31, 2010, mortgage rates were supposed to rise back to 6 percent.  The thing is, Greece has kept that from happening. Bonds demand is high right now.  Prices are up and yields are down.

Mortgage rates move opposite prices for mortgage bonds.

Take Advantage Of Low Rates. They Won't Last.

Rates are low now.  It won't last.  It can't last.

One major reason why low rates won't last is that fear contagion is often overblown and it doesn't last forever.  Already today, in fact, we're seeing pullback from the initial market reaction to the PIIGS.Secondly, the U.S. economy continues to expand, a development that spurs risk-taking at the expense of the bond market.

Both of these development should push mortgage rates higher. Sooner rather than later.

The time to lock your rate is now. to get your rate lock underway.

Mortgage Rate Lessons We Can Learn From Greece

If nothing else, the Greek government debt situation vis-a-vis the mortgage market highlights a key theme on The Mortgage Reports. The events we can prepare for, those aren't the ones that drive mortgage rates the most.

It's the events we never predicted at all.

In Cincinnati, in Columbus, and in every town in this country, mortgage rate shoppers are getting a gift.  Rates should be high, but they're not.  Because of Greece and the PIIGS.  Tomorrow, though, the situation could change.  All it would take is international aid to Greece.  And that's in negotiations as we speak.

Once there's less fear of default, there's less need for safe haven buying.  Mortgage rates will rise. to execute your rate lock before that happens.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate survey and this week's results may help you time a rate lock.

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages nor is the survey specific to South Carolina or Virginia mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 39% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 22% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 39% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent with D'Andre Cole than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"As safe haven buying recedes, mortgage rates advance."

I hope you took advantage of the low rates last week because it'll be the last time we go sub-5 percent maybe ever.

Last Week, Why Did Rates Fall So Much?

Recent gains in the mortgage market are a direct result of something called "safe haven buying". It's market jargon and it's used to describe a trading pattern that tends to emerge during times of uncertainty.

Safe haven buying is characterized by large numbers of investors moving money away from risky investments and toward safer ones.  It's a logical response to surprise events.

Rather than doubling down on their bets in play, traders take their chips off the risk table until the future gets less murky and that's a big reason of why rates fell last week. Greece has yet to show it can meet its debt obligations and there's concern that a default could bring down the broader European Union.

As far as investor risks go, this is a big one.

Why You Should Count On A Turnaround

This past Tuesday, Greece held a successful debt auction. Investors clamored for short-term securities as leaders in the EU pledged support to the nation.

Demand outweighed supply by a multiple of 7.67.  That's huge.  It shows that markets are confident in Greece's ability to recover and it's no coincidence that Tuesday marked the week's low point for U.S. mortgage rates.

Investors are unwinding their safe haven trades, dumping excess mortgage bonds into the open market, pressuring mortgage rates to move higher.

Get ahead of the rate changes because MRV -- Mortgage Rate Velocity -- is as high as its been in a year.

Rate hikes are coming this week and they're going to hit hard.

Float or Lock? Get Your Strategy In Place

Mortgage markets are no longer favorable. Safe haven patterns have receded and there's little to keep mortgage rates low.  The economy continues to show incremental improvement and the stock market is racing past 11,000.

Don't get caught watching the paint dry.

You may have gotten off easy by floating your rate up until now, but it's time to move into locking position.  If you haven't given a loan application to your loan officer, do it ASAP. The longer you wait, the more this next loan is going to cost you.

However, being "alert" is only one part of being ready. You must also have a loan application on file with your lender.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process.  To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or . And be sure to give applications to other loan officers, too.  Don't worry -- your credit score won't be damaged if you do it the right way.

Then, once you're done shopping, you can lock on the spot without fear of rates going nuts on you. MRV is extremely high right now. Change happens in a flash.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

Conventional, Conforming Mortgage Rates

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to North Carolina or Texas mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 57% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 43% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching the only working mousetrap ever made than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Home buyers are out in force. The economy wins. Rate shoppers lose."

Purchase activity is up. Talk with your friends in real estate, talk with your friends in mortgage, talk with, really, somewhat involved in the real estate business.  Home buyers are out and they're writing contracts.

It's good news for the economy and bad news for mortgage rates.

When You Buy A Home, You Buy "Stuff", Too

To understand why housing matters to mortgage rates and the economy, just think about the last time you moved and the purchases you made.  Especially if you moved to a bigger place.

Did you buy new furniture?  What about new blinds, drapes and window dressings? A new television (or three)? Not to mention the countless trips to Home Depot for little things like air filters, light bulbs, and key copies.

All of these purchases fall under the "consumer spending" category and consumer spending accounts for 70% of the economy.

More people moving means more consumer spending. And there's a lot more people moving.

Geopolitics Can't Keep Mortgage Rates Down

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve ends its $1.25 trillion mortgage market commitment this month and, by all accounts, mortgage rates should be rising in advance of it. Instead, they're falling.

As Greece deals with debt worries, and China deals with inflation, and the U.S. dollar gains, mortgage markets have been a sound place to invest.  The extra demand for bonds is pushing mortgage rates down. But this rally rooted in geopolitics -- not in hard data.

It can't last.  Especially with the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

There'll be no rate changes from the Fed, but look for more optimistic verbiage from the Fed with respect to the economy's current and future prospects. The Fed speaks in data and data points to recovery.

Rate Increases Will Happen Quickly

If you need a rate lock, consider taking it this week.  The timing is right and locking a rate can never be wrong.

That said, you'll probably want some help to lock at the exact right moment. Mortgage rates change all the time. Make sure you're not locking too soon. It can be the difference between saving 1/8 percent or losing it. You're going to want your loan officer to help you with timing.

Or, if it's easier for you, with your situation and we'll get you set up with the lowest rate we can.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati or Chicago mortgage rates.  Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 27% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 73% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching The Greatest Network Television Weather Forecast of All-Time than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Markets are in a Tug-O-War -- it's Geopolitics versus The Fed."

There's lot of reasons why mortgage rates change -- revised expectations for the economy, new Fed monetary policy, and psychological factors on Wall Street are among them.

In total, there are hundreds of influences on the day-to-day mortgage rates you and I see from the banks.  It's part of why predicting mortgage rates so challenging.  We can never know which of the hundreds are influences are about to come into play.

We can break influences down into two parts -- obvious, and non-obvious.

Obvious influences are inflation data, housing stats, and job markets.  These we can prepare for; can be proactive about. And, indeed, Wall Street does.  The preparation is why mortgage rates tend trend higher or lower heading into a "major" news release.  The movement is the market squaring its bets.

It's the non-obvious factors, though, that really screw things up.

• An "emergency" change to monetary or fiscal policy, at home or abroad
• A sudden change in the political climate, at home or abroad
• An outbreak of -- or an end to -- war, terror, disease or the like, at home or abroad

In other words, anything that "shocks" the global financial system.

There was a terrific example of such a shock two weeks ago. One day, everyone woke up and suddenly thought Greece couldn't meet it country's debt obligation. The thought drove fear through the Eurozone, then through the broader market, and eventually, it led to safe-haven buying that propped up U.S. mortgage markets.

There's other recent examples, too. Like when the Fed initially announced its support for the mortgage-backed bond market in November 2008; or, when inflation numbers ran much hotter-than-expecter near the end of May 2009.

It happened yesterday, too.

The Fed released the minutes from its January 2010 meeting Wednesday afternoon and there was an underlying message that "change is coming".  Markets didn't expect to hear that just yet and it sent mortgage markets reeling.  Rates spiked by an eighth-percent within minutes of The Minutes' release.

As a rate shopper, unexpected news is frightening. It makes markets do things you wouldn't expect.  And that's why we're calling for a draw over the next week. The likelihood of Eurozone debt concerns leading mortgage rates lower will be offset by the tendency of rates to rise when the Fed starts talking strength.

That said, if you need a rate locked in the next week or so, consider doing it sooner rather than later.  The Fed's exit from the mortgage market is going to push rates up and that exit's in less than 5 weeks.  It's time to get a move on.

Locking mortgages is a timing game and you'll want some help to get it right. Call your loan officer or, if it's easier for you, with your situation. I handle all of my own email and I am happy to get you a good rate lock. It's what I do best.

Plus, my bank has good, low mortgage rates. Just ask me about it.