Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a weekly participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate survey and this week's survey may have the answers you need.

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages nor is the survey specific to Ohio or Illinois mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 47% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 12% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 41% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent with D'Andre Cole than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"While gas prices rise, so will mortgage rates. Get locked ASAP."

Rates are already pushing north. The best rates of the month have passed.

Gas Prices Are Tied To Inflation

Gas prices are up 10% in the last 2 months and the summer driving season hasn't even started yet.  And more than any other force, rising gas prices can foreshadow higher mortgage rates for homeowners because it's inflationary.

The relationship is indirect but worth a look.

First, the catalyst.  Oil prices rise.  This happens for one of 3 reasons:

1. Growing economies are expected to consume more oil (i.e. more demand for oil)
2. The world's oil exporters reduce drilling capacity (i.e. less supply of oil)
3. The U.S. dollar loses value and oil is bought/paid for using U.S. dollars

We're seeing a combination of all 3 right now.  Economies are expanding, oil availability is down, and the dollar is weaker.  As a result, crude oil is up 20% in the last 2 months.  That's a lot.

Then, as oil prices rise, the higher cost of energy spills into everyday life, creating inflationary pressures and causing mortgage rates to rise.

Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.

The Other Reason Mortgage Rates Are Rising

Lately, mortgage rates have been artificially low. There's no good reason why we're seeing conforming mortgage rates at levels like this.  The Fed left the MBS market March 31, 2010 and rates were supposed to rise in response.  But they didn't.

It's because of "safe haven" buying.

Safe haven buying, in a nutshell, is when investors move assets to safe places to avoid a sudden increase in risk somewhere else.  Mortgage bonds, of course, are considered "safe".  They're backed by the U.S. government.

Meanwhile, safe haven buying can be triggered by geopolitics, meteorological events, and financial "problems", among other things. Since the start of the month, we've had all three. Eyjafjallajokull and Greece took most of the headlines and as these events transpired, mortgage rates improved.

The events have now passed.

The ash cloud is gone and Greece secured the IMF's help for its debt.  Safe haven patterns are no longer needed.  Mortgage bonds will unwind as a result.  Mortgage rates will rise.

Get Your Rate Lock Turned In ASAP

There's little to keep mortgage rates low right now.  The Fed is out of the market, the economy is gaining, and safe haven buying is hasta la bye-bye.

It's time to move into locking position. MRV -- Mortgage Rate Velocity -- is as high as its been in a year.  Rate changes are fast and damanging.  If you haven't given a loan application to your loan officer, do it today. The longer you wait, the more this next loan is going to cost you.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process. To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or . And be sure to give applications to other loan officers, too. Don't worry -- your credit score won't be damaged if you do it the right way.

Oil prices are on the move, crossing $80 per barrel for the first time in a year.  The charge can't be coming at a worse time for mortgage rate shoppers.

With Wall Street already in debate about inflation, the surge in crude just adds fuel to fire.

Meanwhile, you may have that noticed gas prices are up this week.  A lot.  Use this as a clue -- higher mortgage rates are coming.

Better than any other "everyday cost", rising gas prices often foreshadow rising mortgage rates.  The relationship between the two indirect, but worthy of an examination.

First, the catalyst.  Oil prices rise.  This happens for one of 3 reasons:

1. Growing economies are expected to consume more oil (i.e. more demand for oil)
2. The world's oil exporters reduce drilling capacity (i.e. less supply of oil)
3. The U.S. dollar loses value and oil is bought/paid for using U.S. dollars

Today, oil prices are rising for all three of these reasons.

As oil prices rise, higher energy costs spill over into everyday life, creating inflationary pressures. Rising gas prices are not the cause of inflation, mind you. They're a symptom of inflation.

Another symptom is the U.S. dollar's devaulation.

Meanwhile, because the U.S. dollar is denomination in which mortgage bonds are priced, when the U.S. dollar loses value, mortgage bonds lose value, too. This makes them a less-attractive investment and bond prices drop.

When mortgage bond prices fall, mortgage rates rise.

Inflation is not yet in bloom in the U.S., but the seeds are planted.  Oil prices are spiking, the dollar is fading, and the government is printing a lot of money.

Mortgage rates are up 0.500 percent from their early-October lows.  They'll likely tack on another 0.500 percent before the New Year.  If you're wondering whether it's the right time to lock, the answer is "yes".  You may have missed the market bottom, but today's rates are terrific compared to what we should see just 8 weeks from now.

To get rate quotes and weigh your choices, so we can talk about your mortgage. I answer all my own emails.

Summer months bring with them a few constants -- catchy songs, Will Smith movies, and rising gas prices.

With oil prices racing higher, it won't be long before gas prices do the same.  And more than any other force, rising gas prices can foreshadow higher mortgage rates.  The relationship is not direct but it's worth examining.

First, the catalyst.  Oil prices rise.  This happens for one of 3 reasons:

1. Growing economies are expected to consume more oil (i.e. more demand for oil)
2. The world's oil exporters reduce drilling capacity (i.e. less supply of oil)
3. The U.S. dollar loses value and oil is bought/paid for using U.S. dollars

Then, as oil prices rise, higher energy costs spill over into everyday business and consumer life, creating inflationary pressures. Rising gas prices are not a cause of inflation. They're a symptom.

Another symptom is devaluation of the dollar.

Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage bonds and mortgage bonds are denominated in U.S. dollars.  As the dollar loses value, so do mortgage bonds.  This causes demand for bonds to fall and so mortgage rates have to rise to attract new buyers.

Again, a symptom of inflation but not the cause.

This year, the "cause" of inflation may be two-fold -- higher demand and a rapidly declining dollar.  There's a sense of "the bottom" among world economies right now and, just last week, the dollar had its worst showing since 1985.  This is a powerful one-two punch that has beat-up mortgage rates badly in the past.

It's likely to beat-up mortgage rates again this year, too.

Inflation is not yet in bloom, but the seeds are planted.  Oil prices are rising, the dollar is falling, and the government is printing a lot of money.  Keep an eye on your gasoline pump -- the higher those prices go, the higher mortgage rates are likely to go, too.