The economy is in recovery. Or so we hear. There appears to be a lot of data in support of the argument:

• Existing Home Sales are up 24 percent in twelve months
• Credit markets appear markedly stable as compared to last year
• The stock market is touching 13-month highs

And while this has been happening, there's been nary a peep from inflation.

In most circumstances, we'd label the argument Case Closed, recession over, blue skies ahead.  Only, this isn't most circumstances.  And a major component of the economy is conspicuously absent -- consumer spending.

Consumer spending is a U.S. keystone, accounting for 70% of the economy.

Without consumer spending, we can't pronounce the recession's death.  Wall Street knows it.  As a consequence, Retail Sales data is the Economists' World equivalent of a rock star this season, getting scrutiny and attention well beyond its data-modeled peers.

The audit's also bringing focus to Consumer Confidence data.

Many analysts believe that confidence correlates to spending.  Looking at the trendline chart, they've got good reason -- there relationship between sales and confidence appears to be direct.  But there's some analysis worth doing, too.

• In a "healthy" economy, consumers spend more than their confidence suggests
• In a "sick" economy, consumers spend less than their confidence suggests

In other words, because our current economy is not yet recovered and because joblessness rests north of 10 percent, expect holiday sales to drag this year.  Consumers will spend even less than they themselves tell the pollsters they're planning to spend. Fear will rule the (shopping) day.

For mortgage rate shoppers, it's wonderful news.

As consumer spending drags, economic doubts will linger.  Tough recovery questions will resurface for 2010 and, until they're retired, mortgage rates won't have much reason to jump. Rates will be way up some days and nicely down on others, but, absent a complete shocker, look for mortgage rates should bounce within the same 5.250% range in which they've resided for the past 12 months.

Predicting mortgage rates is an inexact science but sometimes there are clues to help you. Make consumer confidence and retail sales data two of your guiding lights.  Then, follow me on Facebook or on Twitter to see what the market's doing in real-time.

When you're ready to lock or need a rate quote, . I lend in most states and if I can't help you, I'll point you to a resource that can. I answer all my own emails and my rates are always excellent.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo mortgages or payday loans. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 45% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 55% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent waiting for the punch line than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The malls are empty and so are calls for higher rates."

Consumer spending drives the economy.  Without spending, there's no growth and, as a result, tepid retail sales reports force Wall Street to rethink its bets on U.S. economic recovery.

It's a primary reason why rates return to 5 percent again and again. The economy is back from the brink -- banks are healthier, investment is returning, household net worth is up -- but consumers continue to stand en garde. Confidence is down.

A recovery is not a recovery until consumers buy-in. Literally. And, right now, that's not happening.

Over the next 6 weeks, retail sales will be in focus. How consumers are spending their money; if consumers are spending their money.  Joblessness is a key equational part of the equation, too.

Therefore, keep an eye on your local mall for shoppers, and watch for unemployment rates. Mortgage rates will respond to both between now and January 1.  At the first sign of strength, markets will unleash rates to jump toward 6 percent.

Suddenly, the December 4 jobs report is of huge import.

For now, though, mortgage rates are low. Take advantage.  When rates finally make that break higher, the action will be fast. You won't have much time to react -- maybe 3 days to a week at most.

To stay ahead of mortgage rate changes, follow my "Float or Lock" advice on Facebook and Twitter. It's free and should help you make better decisions with your rate locks.

And if you find my advice useful, or call me so we can work together. I answer all my own emails and my rates are excellent.