Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may have your answers.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or foreign national mortgages. For rate quotes, .

The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 57% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 29% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 14% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I am predicting that rates will decrease over the next 30 days. My prediction may not be appropriate for your individual situation, nor may my commentary be as enlightening at Biff's Question Song.

Here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Fed intervention brings rates back toward 5 percent. "

I've hit this point a few times lately, but when something is important, you can't talk about it too many times.

1. The government has said that sub-5 percent mortgage rates are optimal
2. The Federal Reserve has implied it could boost its $1.25 trillion market pledge

Therefore, putting two-and-two together, I'm telling you for the last time: If mortgage rates get too close to 7 percent, expect the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of its bond buys and, possibly, look for an increase in its commitment to the markets, too.

At least temporarily, this would drive mortgage rates down.  Quickly.

Therefore, if you're among the many homeowners in Cincinnati or Chicago or wherever kicking yourself that you didn't refinance down to 4.750 percent last month when you had the chance, consider this your alert.  If's there's a pending Fed intervention, it will mark your second -- and likely last -- chance to capture low mortgage rates for a long while. 

If it happens, the market will make a knee-jerk reaction that will bring rates way down.  Before long, though, fears of monetary supply inflation will resurface in the markets and rates will bounce right back up.  We've seen this pattern too many times in the past 12 months to think it won't happen again.

If you're not already working with a loan officer and know you'll need a new mortgage soon,  and we'll take a loan application for you.  That way, you'll have your loan application all queued up for that exact moment when rates fall. 

It's a little bit of preparation, but totally worth it.  I've been in this field long enough to tell you with certainty -- if you wait until the Fed makes its announcement to give your loan application, you will miss your chance to lock in that low rate.  Plan ahead. 

Meanwhile, if you're not already doing it, consider following me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/mortgagereports. I post several mortgage updates each day and it can help you get a feel for what mortgage rates are doing at any given time.

Are mortgage rates going up?  Are mortgage rates going down?  I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may have your answers.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages.  It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or foreign national mortgages.  For rate quotes, .

 The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 9% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 19% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 72% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I am predicting that rates will remain unchanged over the next 30 days. My prediction may not be appropriate for your individual situation and it may not be as helpful to you as Biff's Question Song.

Here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The push-and-pull between stocks and bonds is a stalemate for now."

Not so long ago, Wall Street-traded securities move on fundamentals -- the strength of the economy, the health of corporations, data like GDP and so on.  It was a safe dance because traders almost always found somebody to take a counter-bet.  Markets ebbed and flowed in an easy-going way with long-term trends taking months to develop.

Lately, though, Wall Street's been binary in its trading pattern, it seems.  Put the risk on the table with a move to equities, take the risk off the table with a move to bonds.  Put the risk on, take the risk off.  Risk on, risk off. Risk on, risk off. Daniel-san.

With mortgage rates are tied to mortgage bond pricing, and mortgage bond pricing tied to risk appetite, we can see why mortgage rates tend to rise when banks and housing show strength, and why they tend to fall when data points to more recessionary months ahead.

The winner of this tug-o-war won't be known for months. Until then, mortgage rates will be in flux.  Some days up, some days down.  Overall, flat.

As a reminder, when mortgage rates move, they move quickly.  I use Twitter to transmit near-real-time changes.  Come watch my feed at http://www.twitter.com/mortgagereports. I post several updates each day.  If you join Twitter and I'm your first follow, please let me know you're watching by sending me a tweet. 

Type "@mortgagereports First Follow" and I'll get the message.