Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific for Cincinnati or Chicago mortgage rates.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 40% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 7% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 53% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent looking over the 10 Simpsons words that should probably be in the dictionary than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Profit-taking takes hold in the MBS markets."

Bond markets are very similar to stock markets.  There is "a thing" that investors can buy or sell, and that "thing" has a price.  When buyers outnumbers sellers, prices rise.  When sellers outnumber buyers, prices fall.

It's supply-and-demand. Economics 101.

With respect to residential mortgage markets, the "thing" is a mortgage-backed bond.

A mortgage-backed bond is exactly what its name describes -- a bond backed by mortgages.  Specifically, a large grouping of mortgages called a "pool".  Pools generate cash flow from the monthly mortgage payments made by homeowners and mortgage bond investors own a claim on said cash flow.

Again, comparing to stocks, bond investors buy ownership in a "thing" and get a claim on its future cash flow.  This is a relationship that escapes most laypersons.  Mostly because business television doesn't talk about bond markets with the same fervor as it does for stock.

But, bond markets are similar to stock markets ands, therefore, we should expect for bond markets to behave like stock markets at times.

This week will be one of those times. Mortgage bond markets are ripe for profit-taking and that will be bad for mortgage rates.

After a major sell-off in December, mortgage bonds rallied in January.  The December loss topped 300 basis points overall, adding 3% in discount points to any given mortgage rate.  In January, then, the markets unwound two-thirds of those losses, reducing the discount points number to 1.

The sustained rise and subsequent sustained fall was an abnormal trading pattern for a market accustomed to short rides up and down.  Today, short rides are back.

If you're going to need a rate locked in the next week or so, consider doing it sooner rather than later.  After January's big improvement, bond investors are getting itchy and will want to lock up some profits.  To do that, they'll want to sell their mortgage bond holdings and that will create extra supply on Wall Street. And, just like stocks, when there's a sell-off in bonds, prices fall.

Mortgage rates move opposite from prices.

That said, locking mortgages is a timing game and you'll want some help to get it right.  Call your loan officer or, if it's easier for you, with your situation. I handle all of my own email and I am happy to get you a good rate lock.  It's what I do best.

Plus, my bank has good, low mortgage rates. Just ask me about it.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific for Cincinnati or Chicago mortgage rates.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 43% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 14% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 43% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching people get punched in the face right before eating a sandwich than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Jobs data drags down rates."

On the first Friday of every month, at 8:30 AM ET, the U.S. government releases the Non-Farm Payrolls report, except most people don't call it that.  They call it "the jobs report".  Tomorrow is the first Friday of the month.

The jobs report has always been influential with respect to mortgage rates but, lately, it's of larger import.  This is because Wall Street believes that jobs growth is the way forward for the economy.  No jobs, no growth.

The jobs-to-growth connection is pretty straight-forward. Versus an unemployed person, an employed person is:

1. More likely to spend free cash
2. More likely to feel confident about his economic future
3. More likely to make on-time mortgage payments

Each of these points promotes economic growth and stock markets tend to improve when jobs data is strong.  This happens at the expense of bonds, of course, and mortgage rates rise.

But there's another angle, too.

Because jobs are a lagging economic indicator, net job gains imply that U.S. businesses are feeling better about their prospects for 2010 and 2011.  This, too, excites stock markets, creating even more bond market damage. That's why a blowout job number would be awful for mortgage rates Friday.

Thankfully, it won't happen.

Even though markets are officially calling for 13,000 new jobs, whispers numbers are moving the target even higher.  Therefore, the number of net new jobs would have to exceed the original estimate and then some, plus, prior revisions would have to revise higher, too.

Reviewing recent trading patterns -- over the next week -- mortgage rates have more room to fall than to rise.  Longer-term, this isn't the case, but for now, you can float safely.

That said, locking mortgages is a game of timing and to play, you'll want some help.

If you don't have a loan officer you can call up for advice, know that you can always call me. Or, , whichever is easier. I handle all of my own email and I would happy to get your mortgage rate lock ready for you. The key is to make a plan that works, pick a rate that fits the plan, then wait to execute.

It's what I do best.  Plus, my bank has good, low mortgage rates. Just ask me about it.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati or Chicago.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 50% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 29% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 21% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent learning how to suck at Facebook than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The reality of the Fed's mortgage market withdrawal sets in this week."

This is going to read like a recap from last week, but let's review the highlights.

When the economy hit the skids in September 2008, the government made a massive intervention.  In addition to formal stimulus from Congress, the Federal Reserve did what it could to loosen up the credit markets.

One of the Fed's most well-known programs was its commitment to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed bonds in the open market. Internal studies from the Fed say the program lowered rates by 1 percent last year.

The program ends March 31, 2010.

Now, logic dictates that if the Fed's presence had rates down 1.000 percent in 2009 -- all things equal -- the Fed's absence will have rates up by the same 1.000 percent in 2010. The question remains, "how soon until it happens?"

The Fed has been weaning markets off the program, dropping purchases to just one-third of its March 2009 peak purchase levels. And while it's been doing that, there's been fewer originations to create new supply.

For this reason, some analysts think fears of a Fed pullout are overblown; that rates won't rise by a full percent. And that viewpoint may ultimately be proved correct.

For now, though, the prudent thing to do is to treat the situation like NFL referees treat an instant replay request -- stick with the original call until you've got sufficient evidence to overturn it. Right now, that evidence doesn't exist. It won't exist until April.

Naturally, you don't have until April.  You need to know what to do right now so here it is.

Get locked.

Mortgage rates have receded from December's highs and have been sitting in a pocket for about a week. At some point, Wall Street will start pricing bond for the Fed's MBS exit and you don't want to be on the wrong side of that window.

Locking mortgages is a game of timing and, for that, you may need some help.

If you don't have a loan officer you can call up for advice, know that you can always call me. Or, , whichever is easier. I handle all of my own email and I would happy to get your mortgage rate lock ready for you. The key is to be ready before the market changes and that's what I do best.

Also, my bank has good, low rates. Just ask me about it.

If you want to know where mortgage rates are headed in the future, you may be better off ignoring the experts.

I conducted a 50-week study of the popular Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and it showed that the "expert consensus" on mortgage rates is wrong 3 times more often than it's right.

I am a regular Rate Trend survey participant and have been since 2006.

If you've never seen Bankrate.com's weekly Mortgage Rate Trend Index, it's an informal "future of mortgage rates" poll of loan officers around the country. It's meant to give interest rate guidance to active home buyers and would-be refinancers.

Many survey participants are high-profile and the mortgage rate question posed by Bankrate.com is a basic one:

In your opinion, will mortgage rates move up, down, or remain unchanged 35 to 45 days from now?

Well, mapping the Bankrate survey's majority opinion against Freddie Mac's published mortgage rates 35 days hence, it turns out that the experts guessed right on rates just 23.4% of the time last year.

That's seriously awful. It's less than 1 out of 4. And they're experts.

Now, to be fair, some of the participants fared better than the average including Bankrate.com host Holden Lewis and yours truly. However, predicting mortgage rates remains a huge challenge. Especially 35-45 days into the future.

A lot can change in 6 weeks and last year, a lot did. As the economy dipped and surged, Wall Street tried to come to terms with the future of the economy while Congress and the Fed made new policies to stimulate and/or retard growth, as needed.

Intervention messes with markets and mortgage rates were extremely volatile during the sample period. This is because the mortgage rate that homebuyers see is the result of literally hundreds of factors.

Lenders averaged 1 middle-of-the-day rate change per day last year. That's a lot.

Despite these caveats, though, none of it changes the fact the Bankrate.com survey was actually de-helpful to its readers last year. Homebuyers that relied on the survey for rate lock advice, in hindsight, would have been better off flipping a coin.

According to Bankrate.com, the Mortgage Rate Trend survey is among its most viewed pages on its site. Plus, the survey is syndicated to sites like Yahoo! Business and Fidelity Investments.  Clearly, a lot of Americans are using this thing for rate-locking advice.

It's too bad, really, because the advice they're getting is hardly ever right.

When you need to lock a rate, remember that predicting mortgage rates is a challenge for anybody and the farther out an expert goes on the time line, the more likely his logic will be proved wrong.  Markets and makeup change way too fast.

As a consumer, therefore, the best thing you can do is work with a loan officer that understands how markets move and why they move.  You may not get the best prediction for a rate 2 months into the future, but you'll get an excellent take on what's driving mortgage rates today -- an equally important set of information.

Then, when you can get a heads-up on when rates are rising before it actually happens, that's when you can save yourself some money.  The key is to work with a loan officer that tracks real-time mortgage market data and, more importantly, knows what to do with it.

If you're working with a Call Center-type lender, or just aren't sure whether your loan officer is up to snuff, call or . I track mortgage rates in real-time for all of my clients and I love to work with my blog readers.

Plus, my rates are really good (even if I can't predict them 45 days into the future).

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati or Chicago.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 27% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 13% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 60% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent on everyone's favorite movie game show than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The first effects of the Fed's market withdrawal are coming. "

Mortgage rates have been low for a very long time. You probably can't remember back this far, but in August 2008, when gas prices were crossing $4 and inflation was all the rage, rate shoppers were snapping up 6.500 percent mortgage like they were deals at Sofa King.

Then, the dam leaked. Banking fell apart, the economy went to the brink, and the Federal Reserve stepped in to clean up the mess.

The Fed made many moves to heal the economy, but one of its most important ones was its backstopping of the mortgage-backed securities market to the tune of $1,250,000,000,000.

Visualize that for a minute. It's a huge number. And the Fed used it to become a big-time buyer of mortgage bonds. The goal? Use the extra demand to lead bond prices higher which, in turn, would lead bond yields lower.  And this is exactly what happened.

Internal studies from the Fed say the intervention lowered rates 1 percent last year.

In other words, we've been getting low rates because the mortgage-backed market is "artificial".  The Fed is a non-natural buyer.  Starting April 1, 2010, though, life goes back to normal.  The Fed is ending its support and the market will be left to its own.

It's simple, folks. If the Fed's presence dropped rates 1 percent in 2009, its absence will cause rates to rise in 2010.  Mortgage rates are going up.  The question is "how soon until markets react?"

For now, rates look good and low. Economic data is soft and inflation is tame. Plus, the dollar is rallying.  These are all conducive to low mortgage rates.  However, at some point, Wall Street will start pricing bond for the Fed's MBS exit.

It could get ugly. The move will likely be swift.

Rate shoppers should really have a plan in place.  Be patient, but not too patient. Locking mortgages is a game of timing and,  for that, you may need some help.

If you don't have a loan officer you can call up for advice, know that you can always call me. Or, , whichever is easier. I handle all of my own email and I would happy to help you get your mortgage rate lock ready.  The key is to be ready for the changes before they come and that's what I do best.

Also, my bank has good, low rates. Just ask me about it.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati or Chicago.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 36% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 18% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 46% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent on learning that George Washington invented instant coffee than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Markets move into wait-and-see mode on the economy and the Fed. "

It's been a wild few weeks in the mortgage markets.  December was a shoot-out that left every "floater" dead. Since the New Year, though, markets have been easing and rates have been falling.

Today, mortgage rates are at their best levels of the year.

In an it-won't-sound-so-strange-once-you-understand-how-mortgage-rates-work kind of way, rates are down for the same reason they were up -- expectations on the economy.

See, when December started, the jobs report showed net job growth very close to flat.  Wall Street got very excited about it. Plus, housing showed more growth and Retail Sales punched in way bigger than projections.

At the same time, members of the Fed were stumping for a raise in the Fed Funds Rate and a need to be wary of runaway growth.  This, too, got Wall Street excited and as of December 31, 2009, the economy hinted at recovering and expanding at ludicrous speed.

Because of this, mortgage rates made their biggest 1-month jump of the year in December. Since then, however, it's been a mixed bag.

January's job report and retail sales report both went negative, and Pending Home Sales failed to impress.  Furthermore, there's been a general softness about the economy and Fed members have gone silent on Fed Funds Rate matters.

It's a reversal from December and expectations for 2010 are dialed back a bit. Mortgage rates are falling, but have likely bottomed out for now.

We're witnessing a stasis. The economic forces of expansion and contraction seem balanced.  Data is contradictory and difficult to interpret.  Wall Street is unsure of what's next.

Mortgage rates should stay in a tight range between now and the Super Bowl.  There will be days when rates are down, and days when rates are up. The key is picking the right day to make your rate lock.

Be patient, but not too patient. Locking mortgages has always been a game of timing.  And for that, you may need some help.

If you don't have a loan officer you can call up for advice, know that you can always call me. Or, , whichever is easier. I handle all of my own email and I would happy to help you lock your mortgage rate.

My bank has good, low rates. Just ask me about it.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati or Chicago.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 36% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 36% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 28% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent on Greg Rutter's Definitive List of The 99 Things You Should Have Already Experienced On The Internet Unless You're a Loser or Old or Something than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Be patient. The market is in Correction Mode after December's awful results."

Now, if you were lucky enough to lock a 30-year fixed mortgage rate sometime between Thanksgiving and December 1, you got an awesome rate, really.  You're probably sub-5 percent and maybe didn't pay any closing costs to get there.

Pat yourself on the back if you got that rate because after the first of the month, December turned into a veritable mortgage market nightmare. Between December 1 and December 31, 2009, mortgage pricing deteriorated by more than 300 basis points.

100 basis points equals 1 percent so the math looks like this:

• December 1: You could lock a 4.750 percent, 30-year fixed with 0 points
• December 31: You could lock a 4.750 percent, 30-year fixed at a cost of 3 points

Owie.  Having to 3 points to get the same rate 30 days later is a lot of points.

And, the thing is, there really wasn't much reason for mortgage rates to get so bad, so quickly.  Sure, jobs data got stronger and the housing market showed more improvement, but there wasn't much else.

In fact, you could argue the opposite side and say that rates should have fallen.

During December, the U.S. dollar improved, retail sales were weak, and key inflation figures was tame.  Even the Federal Reserve gave the economy Even Steven report after its December 16 meeting.

Instead of responding to this type of data, mortgage markets suffered at the hands of momentum plays combining with low trading volume. The markets fell farther than they should have.  They're going to correct this month.

We've had 3 trading days so far this year. Rates -- along with volume -- have been improving.  It's a correction. Markets are returning to normal, whatever that means.  But, as they do, rates should settle in a little lower than what we've seeing right now.

If you can afford to be patient with a pending conforming mortgage rate locks, try it. You'll be rewarded.  The key, though, is knowing when to stop being patient.

For that, you may need some help.

If you don't have a loan officer you can call up for advice, know that you can always call me. Or, , whichever is easier.  I handle all of my own email and I would happy to help you lock your mortgage rate.

My bank has good, low rates and we're very responsive to our clients.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 33% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 27% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 40% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this video about Poland Spring Water than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The Fed just bought the mortgage markets another 30 days of low rates."

With consumer confidence on the mend, net job gains nearing zero, and Retail Sales rebounding, Wall Street had bid up mortgage rates this month. Since touching an all-time low (for the 5th time this year) at Thanksgiving, rates had surged by nearly 3/8 percent.

Mostly, the trading was just jockeying for position ahead of the December 15-16 FOMC meeting.

Investors were worried that the Fed would blink; that it would change its economic outlook for 2010 and have to start raising the Fed Funds Rate sooner than forecast; that inflation fears would return.

Instead, none of that happened.

In the FOMC's post-meeting press release, the Fed talked about the economy "picking up" plus stronger jobs and housing markets, but it also said that risks to growth remain. Notably, consumer credit is tight and businesses are reluctant to hire new workers.

And then, to back that up, the Fed made 5 separate comments stating inflation is under control.

Markets didn't know what to make of the Fed's statement. There was a lack of conviction in both directions and that will help rate shoppers in the weeks ahead.  The last thing traders want to do is take on more risk before the New Year and the Fed just gave investors the green light to park cash in bonds.

This includes the mortgage-backed variety, of course.

That said, rate should remain bumpy for the foreseeable future so if you need to lock a rate, talk with your loan officer in advance about selecting the rate that's right for you. Then, set a plan to wait for it.

If you're patient and your rate target is reasonable, you'll probably get the chance to lock.

If you don't have a loan officer for refinancing, just with some notes on your mortgage. I'll bounce back with some answers for you. I handle my emails personally.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 80% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 10% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 10% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching Neil Young sing the theme song to The Fresh Prince of Bel Air than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Mortgage rates, like everything else, are cheap this holiday season."

The U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending.  Spending is the catalyst for all things good.  Without spending, the economy idles and, right now, spending is flat.  Sure, the housing market is improving and so are the banks, but an economic recovery won't be proclaimed until everyday Americans start spending cash.

Consumer spending is down and trending lower. Retailers know it, too.

Tight purse strings explain why "Black Friday" specials started a full week early at Amazon, and why stores are discounting more than usual this year.  Anything to part a person from his paycheck.

Despite the deals and promos, however, consumers will spend less this season. Joblessness is high and shoppers are cautious. The lack of register receipts will hold the economy in place, which is to say that growth will remain tempered.

For mortgage rate shoppers, this is a good thing.

See, ever since Fed Chairman Bernanke's March 2009 interview with 60 Minutes, the one in which he metaphorically observed "green shoots" in the economy, Wall Street has been betting on recovery.  First, they thought it would come in summer.  Then, in fall.

Now, expectations are delayed again.

So long as our nation's economic future is in doubt, mortgage markets will benefit from safe haven buying. More demand means lower rates, and, by extension, cheaper home financing.

A year ago Thanksgiving, mortgage rates reached an all-time low.  We're approaching those same all-time levels again.  But unlike last year, rates should stay low for longer than an hour or two.

Mortgage rates will remain beat down until consumer spending returns.

My advice to homeowners?  Talk to your loan officer about a refinance. Don't worry about your equity, your job, your closing costs, or anything else for that matter -- just make the phone call and evaluate your options. You can always say "no".

Based on today's rates, though, I have a sneaking suspicion you'll want to say "yes".

If you don't have a loan officer and/or don't want to call your current lender's toll-free support center, just with some notes on your home loan and I'll bounce back with some answers for you.

I handle my emails personally and my rates are excellent.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo mortgages or payday loans. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 45% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 55% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent waiting for the punch line than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The malls are empty and so are calls for higher rates."

Consumer spending drives the economy.  Without spending, there's no growth and, as a result, tepid retail sales reports force Wall Street to rethink its bets on U.S. economic recovery.

It's a primary reason why rates return to 5 percent again and again. The economy is back from the brink -- banks are healthier, investment is returning, household net worth is up -- but consumers continue to stand en garde. Confidence is down.

A recovery is not a recovery until consumers buy-in. Literally. And, right now, that's not happening.

Over the next 6 weeks, retail sales will be in focus. How consumers are spending their money; if consumers are spending their money.  Joblessness is a key equational part of the equation, too.

Therefore, keep an eye on your local mall for shoppers, and watch for unemployment rates. Mortgage rates will respond to both between now and January 1.  At the first sign of strength, markets will unleash rates to jump toward 6 percent.

Suddenly, the December 4 jobs report is of huge import.

For now, though, mortgage rates are low. Take advantage.  When rates finally make that break higher, the action will be fast. You won't have much time to react -- maybe 3 days to a week at most.

To stay ahead of mortgage rate changes, follow my "Float or Lock" advice on Facebook and Twitter. It's free and should help you make better decisions with your rate locks.

And if you find my advice useful, or call me so we can work together. I answer all my own emails and my rates are excellent.

Need a mortgage rate prediction for the next month? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo or super jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 67% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 8% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 25% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, your time may be better spent watching Joe Cocker's Misheard Lyrics from Woodstock versus reading my commentary.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Mortgage rates drift higher through Thanksgiving."

Mortgage rates have dipped this week, falling by 0.375% in the last 48 hours.  We're still very much in the hole, however. Since troughing October 11, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have added 1/2 percent and the 15-year fixed has added a quarter.

Mortgage rates are still trending higher overall.

To understand why that trend will continue, we need to get a feel for why rates were low in the first place:

1. The Fed built artificial MBS demand with its $1.25 trillion purchase program
2. Risk-averse investors sought refuge from a plummeting stock market
3. Wall Street stressed more about deflation than inflation

Each of these items placed downward pressure on mortgage rates and it's the reason why 30-year fixed rates touch all-time lows this year.  Mortgage rates were really good for a very long time.

But now, as (1) The Fed ends its purchases, (2) Stock markets recover, and (3) Inflation fears resurface, mortgage rates are returning to "normal".  Any dips between now and the New Year should be considered locking opportunities -- they're not going to last.

Mortgage rates will be a 6 percent before long.

One thing to keep in mind, though, mortgage rates change minute-by-minute and when you're evaluating whether to lock in, you need to be getting accurate, timely information. Answers to questions like "Is it safe float my rate?" or "Should I lock my mortgage rate as soon as possible?" shouldn't go unanswered.

I give "Float or Lock" advice in near-real time via on Facebook and Twitter.

And if you find my advice useful, or call me so we can work together. I answer all my own emails and my rates are really good.

Need a mortgage rate prediction for the next month? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo or super jumbo mortgages, or payday loans. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 55% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 12% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 33% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, your time may be better spent watching Balloon Boy get the Fresh Prince treatment on Facebook versus reading my commentary.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The trend is not your friend. Lock your mortgage rates, folks."

Since bottoming out October 11, 2009, mortgage rates have soared. In some cases, we've added as much as 0.625% to rates.

The surge in mortgage rates stems from 3 main catalysts:

1. The U.S. dollar is getting destroyed in global currency markets
2. The price of crude oil leapt past $80 per barrel, bringing gas prices along with it
3. The Fed is withdrawing its support for the mortgage market, but keeping the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000%

Individually, each of these developments would put upward pressure on mortgage rates.  In tandem, they're killing today's low interest rate environment.

Wall Street's fear of inflation is returning and it spells terrible news for rate shoppers as we head into November. Forget about snaring the 4.500 percent 30-year fixed rate mortgage with 0 points. It's not going to happen. The markets have moved on.  Instead, consider taking what the market gives you.

In the not-too-distant future, 6 percent interest rates will be the norm.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates change minute-by-minute and when you're looking to lock, you need timely information. Answers to questions like "Should I float because mortgage rates are improving?" or "Should you lock because mortgage rates are worsening?" shouldn't go unanswered.

I give "Float or Lock" advice in near-real time via on Facebook and Twitter.

And if you find my advice useful, or call me so we can work together. My rates are really good.

Need a mortgage rate prediction for the next month? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or super jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 67% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 8% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 25% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, your time may be better spent watching Biz's Halloween Beat of the Day versus reading my commentary.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Mortgage markets respond to a weakening dollar and inflation."

Lately, mortgage bonds have been trading at unsustainable levels.

Despite a growing mound of evidence that the economy is expanding and what looks to be an over-supply of treasury debt, mortgage-backed securities are priced as high as they've been since May.  It's unnatural, really; a hedge against a stock market flop. Or something else.

But forget about why rates are low -- low rates are about to end.

As the U.S. Dollar gets crushed in currency markets, the price of oil is spiking.  And, as that's happening, it looks like consumers are starting to spend again. Put 'em together and you have the recipe for inflation.

At least, that's what Wall Street thinks.

Mortgage bonds can't catch a break this week. Rates are up markedly and seem poised to keep rising through Halloween and into November.  If you're waiting for a market bottom, today may be it.

Stop waiting for the 4.500 percent 30-year fixed and take what the market's giving you. Before long, 6 percent rates will replace 5 percent ones.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates change minute-by-minute. The best way to stay in-front of rate changes is to subscribe near-real time market updates via Facebook or Twitter.  You're more likely to get good rates if know when to lock.

If my advice is helpful to you, or call me so we can work together. My rates are really good.

Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It is not specific to Cincinnati, nor does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or super jumbo mortgages. For a personal rate offer, .

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 29% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 14% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 57% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged over the next 30 days.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, your time may be better spent watching this video of monkeys doing Men In Black versus reading my commentary.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Strong demand for bonds offsets dollar weakness."

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar has been getting slaughtered.  It's at a 2-month low against the Euro and is similarly weak against Asian currencies.  There are some fundamentals behind the devaluation including weak consumer spending and confidence numbers,  but we can't overlook the technical factors that are driving prices, too.

As Newton tells us, an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force.

Momentum in markets can be hard to break.

A weak dollar is bad for mortgage rates because mortgage bonds are repaid in U.S. dollars.  When the dollar loses value, the value of those repayments fall, too, rendering mortgage bonds a less-attractive investment.

Investors sell into a weak dollar.

But as the dollar has sagged lately, bonds appear to be holding their own.  Even yesterday, a U.S. Treasury auction was heavily bid.  This is because the dollar is still a safe-haven currency and it's consistent with historical trends.

When the world is running down, dollar-denominated bonds benefit.

Global economic uncertainty is creating a demand for bonds, opposite and nearly-equal to the newfound supply as a result of a sagging greenback.

Ergo, mortgage rates are flat and should remain flat until market conditions change.

Rates fell in September and markets are back to their pre-Summer levels. We've seen these rates a five times in the past 10 months and markets appear unwilling to fall further.  It's time to stop waiting around for the mythical 4.500 percent 30-year fixed mortgage and just take what the market's giving you.

Between now and Thanksgiving, rates are much more likely to rise than to fall.

Mortgage rates change minute-by-minute and getting real-time access to pricing can be expensive.  I pay for a premium service, though, and share the data in near-real time on both my Facebook Page and on Twitter.

I've helped a lot of people time their rate locks and I'm happy to do that for you, too.

Also, if you find my advice helpful and you're not already committed to a loan officer, or call me so we can work together. I happen to really like working with my readers.

And, oh yeah, my rates are really good.

Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It is not specific to Cincinnati, nor does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or super jumbo mortgages. For a personal rate offer, .

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 21% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 29% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 50% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged over the next 30 days.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, your next 3 minutes, 18 seconds may have been better spent watching this Batman video than reading my commentary.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Mortgage markets enter a period of wait-and-see. Take your gains and lock 'em in, folks."

It's been a good few weeks for mortgage rates.  While Wall Street waits for definitive data on the economy, traders have tended to take safe positions in the mortgage-backed securities market.

Traders appear to believe the Federal Reserve's assessment about the economy picking up, but, nonetheless, they're making careful hedges with their bets. Furthermore, inflation appears contained (for now) and the U.S. dollar is recovering from its late-Summer beatdown.

It's all helped push mortgage rates to their lowest levels since around the time the Phillies first took first place.

This is about as far as we'll go.

In looking at the data and the charts, there's lots of reasons why mortgage rates could rise in the coming month but not a lot of reason why they could fall.  This is Reason #1 why it may be prudent to lock in your rate this week.  Reason #2 is because of  mortgage guidelines.

Both conventional and FHA guidelines are tightening in the coming weeks.

So, if you kept betting that rates would fall in September, you were right.  But now, with mortgage rates hanging near the recent lows, it's a terrific time to take your chips off the table and get locked in.  All it's going to take is a strong jobs report or something similar to send rates soaring.

Rates may go up, but they certainly won't come down.  And because you don't get access to real-time mortgage-backed pricing like I do, consider hiring me as your loan officer to track and lock rates for you. I watch mortgage markets on a real-time basis and am happy to share what I know. It's news you can't get from the papers or from TV.

Plus, my rates are really good.

If you're not already committed to a loan officer, or call me so we can work together. I'd welcome it.

Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It is not specific to Cincinnati, nor does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or super jumbo mortgages. For a personal rate offer, .

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 16% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 25% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 59% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I am setting the trend, predicting that mortgage rates will decrease over the next 30 days.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, watching this hidden-camera, cruel-tricks-on-kids video may be a better use of your time than reading my commentary.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Rates drift lower into the start of the Holiday Shopping season."

With Summer over and trading volume back to full strength, the market is turning a corner.  It's increasingly clear that economy bottomed out sometime between February and May and Wall Street is no longer waiting for the other economic shoe to drop.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke validated this position, saying the recession is "very likely over".

• Housing markets are rebounding with force; values are up in many markets.
• Retail Sales are plowing ahead, ahead of expectations
• Consumer confidence is rising ahead of schedule

Despite the positive signals, though, investors are wanting to see more strength from the jobs market. Unemployment remains high and job creation is still a net negative month-over-month.  Until Americans get back to work, consumer spending is likely to be tempered and that's a Big Elephant.

Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy.  No jobs, no spending.  And, meanwhile, the Holiday Shopping season is about to start.

It'll be 4 weeks until the next retail sales report.  Until then, expect Wall Street to take a cautious approach to calls for recovery.  The framework is there, but the work's not done.  It'll take a sustained boost in consumer spending to convince the street that the recession is dead for good.

For now, mortgage rates remain bouncy, with a general bias to the downside.  There will be "up days" and "down days", but if you can afford to be patient for a few weeks, it may pay dividends.  Especially because the Federal Open Market Committee is meeting next week and there's sure to be some volatility around the event.

As a layperson, you can't get access to real-time mortgage rates like I can so, if you're trying to make good rate locking decisions, consider hiring me as your loan officer. I track rates on a real-time basis and am happy to share what I know. It's news you can't get from the papers or from TV.

Plus, my rates are good.

If you're not already committed to a loan officer, or call me so we can work together.  I'd welcome it.

Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It is not specific to Cincinnati, nor does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or super jumbo mortgages. For a personal rate offer, .

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 29% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 50% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 21% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I am setting the trend, predicting that mortgage rates will decrease over the next 30 days.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always accurate besides. Heck, you may find watching a video with every invocation of the name "McFly" in the entire Back to the Future Trilogy to be a better use of your time that reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Seasonal trends push mortgage rates down."

Fundamentally, the economy looks to be improving. Housing is showing up big, consumer confidence is holding, and the Fed keeps signaling good news.  By all accounts, the stock market should be improving.

It's not.

After the Dow Jones' meteoric, 5-month run-up, profit-taking and nerves are making a showing.  The Dow is down on consecutive days in September amid whispers of a pending correction.  It's not out of the question, either, given that September is the worst month for stocks, historically.

September has some dubious distinctions:

• The 1929 stock market crash started in September
• The Dow's worst month ever was September 1931
• Major market losses occurred in September 1974 and 2001
• September 2008 was the epicenter of the current Financial Crisis

And considering that the Dow is up 45 percent since March, the market is ripe to fall and traders know it.

To say that Wall Street is walking on eggshells would be an understatement.  It's like everyone's just waiting for the light to change and this can easily develop into a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Stocks would sink for no good reason -- similar to what we're seeing now.

For rate shoppers, it could be a break.

As traders shun risk, they'll park their money in things that are safe.  That includes mortgage-backed bonds.  More demand drives prices up and pushes rates down.  Homes would get more affordable and more homeowners could refinance.

So far, we haven't seen this happen, but I expect we will before October 1.

When rates finally fall, they may not fall by much and the dip may not last long.  Therefore, if you think you're going to need a new mortgage in the next few weeks, do yourself a favor and get pro-active about it.  Get your loan application in with a lender in advance.

Waiting for rates to fall and then trying to apply is a fight against time.

As a loan officer, I watch mortgage-backed securities and track rates on a real-time basis. That's something you can't get from the papers or from TV.  If you're not already committed to a loan officer and want to work with me, or call me.  I get access to good mortgage rates.

Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It is not specific to Cincinnati, nor does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or reverse mortgage. For a personal rate offer, .

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 18% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 18% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 64% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I am bucking the trend, predicting that mortgage rates will decrease over the next 30 days.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always accurate besides. Heck, you may find watching the "Don't Call Me Shirley" clip to be a better use of your time.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Demand for dollars-denominated bonds helps rates to ease lower."

Now, there are a lot of reasons why mortgage rates change.  Economics, politics, trends -- take your pick.  Each plays an important role. But of equal importance is the value of the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar matters to mortgage rates because it's the currency in which mortgage bond investors are repaid.  When the dollar loses value, so does the value of those repayments.  Therefore, mortgage-backed securities lose their luster and rates rise in order to entice investors back.

When the dollar gains, the chain reaction flips in reverse.  And, as a result, mortgage rates fall.

The dollar should gain in the coming weeks.  The U.S. economy appears to be recovering from recession -- probably faster than our global peers.  As a result, whenever there's a perceived risk in the global economy, global cash seems to flow to the U.S. markets. To investors, it's the safest place to be.

This partly explains why stocks and bonds have moved in the same direction of late.  The same forces that are pushing stock markets higher are helping the U.S. dollar to gain, too.  It's causing bond prices to rise and rates to fall.

That said, markets remain volatile and rates do, too.  The global economy is in flux and there are countless outside influences for which to account.

As a loan officer, I watch mortgage-backed securities and track rates on a real-time basis.  If you're not working with a loan officer and want to work with me, I'm never too far from my phone or so just reach out anytime. I'll help you try to time a market bottom so you don't overpay on your rate or your fees.

Or, watch my running market commentary on Twitter.

Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or reverse mortgage. For rate quotes, .

The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 27% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 37% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 46% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I predict that rates will remain unchanged over the next 30 days.

My advice not even be appropriate for your particular situation and I'm not always accurate besides. Heck, you may find watching the Back to the Future Theme Song set to lyrics to be a better use of your time.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Mortgage rates can't break their range. It's been like this since May."

Earlier this week, we talked about Technical Analysis and its effect on mortgage rates.  Technical Analysis is a pseudo-science, a system meant to predict the future of a security's pricing based on its past performance.  By watching trends over time, some traders say, you can pinpoint where a particular market is going to go next.

A quick look at Wikipedia's Technical Analysis page shows how highly nuanced the art form can be.  So nuanced, in fact, that some call it "made up".

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle -- and for an interesting reason.  If enough people believe a security will follow a pattern and trade on that belief, the pattern is eventually fulfilled.

In this sense, Technical Analysis can be self-fulfilling. It's why rates, over the medium-term, should stay relatively unchanged.

Since the start of the year, a map of mortgage rates shows pricing contained within a zone. When rates get above the zone, they fall.  When rates go below the zone, they rise.  This should continue until an outside economic shocks the system and shakes the zone loose.

This "shock" can come in several forms. It would reset the current rate range higher or lower from where's its at now. Some examples include:

• An abrupt change in U.S. employment trends
• An especially damaging Hurricane Season
• An unexpected and sharp change in U.S. monetary policy

Any one of these events would bust the technical trading patterns by which markets have been made and, at that points, it's all bets are off on what happens to mortgage rates next.

For now, though, it'll be some days up and some days down, but overall, unchanged.

If you're not working with a loan officer and want to work with me, I'm never too far from my phone or so just reach out anytime.  I'll help you try to time a market bottom so you don't overpay on your rate or your fees.

Or, watch rates in the bankground on Twitter. I post market updates throughout the day. Send a message to @mortgagereports so I know you're listening.

Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or reverse mortgage. For rate quotes, .

The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 23% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 38% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 39% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I predict that rates will decrease over the next 30 days.

My advice not even be appropriate for your particular situation and I'm not always accurate besides. Heck, you may find watching the world's coolest waterslide to be a better use of your time.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Near-term strength in the U.S. dollar eases mortgage rates lower."

Mortgage markets are a sensitive beast.  Just the slightest breeze and they're all shook up.  It's one reason why this blog covers such a wide berth.  Jobs, housing, consumer confidence, spending -- it's all relevant.  Each moves markets in its own right.  And when mortgage markets move, mortgage rates move.

Meanwhile, another factor in the mortgage market is the long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar.

Mortgage bond repayments are made in U.S. currency, so as the value of the dollar rises relative to other nations' currencies, the relative value of a mortgage bond repayment rises, too.  A 5 percent return can become a 6 percent return if your home currency is the Euro, as an example.

Math like this tends to attract foreign investment.

Indeed, this is what we're seeing.  At the recent treasury auctions, record foreign interest for dollar-backed bonds has helped buoy the market and keep rates low.

So long as the economy levels off and starts to expand, this trend could continue.

Don't forget, though -- there's a lot of factors that influence mortgage rates.  It's not just the U.S. dollar.  If it was, mortgage rates wouldn't be in constant flux like they are.

If you're not working with a loan officer and want to work with me, I can help you try to time a market bottom and, at the very least, make sure you're getting clear advice.  I'm never too far from my phone or so just reach out anytime.

Or, you get more passive about it.  Watch me on Twitter.  I post market updates throughout the day. Send a message to @mortgagereports so I know you're listening.