Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Predictions Only

By way of disclosure, these mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages only. The survey is national, covering Cincinnati, Ohio; Potomac, Maryland; and everywhere else.

FHA streamline refinances are not covered because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 21% think mortgage rates will increase
• 5% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 74% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this story about a guy sent to Mars for a reality TV show that ends up gets canceled on Day 36 of shooting.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"What goes down, must go up. Rates reached a plateau three weeks ago. Get ready for the rising."

Mortgage markets can't seem to break through resistance. It's signal that higher rates are coming.

Momentum Lasted 14 Weeks. Now It's Stopped. Lock In.

Mortgage markets are stuck. If you've been shopping for a loan lately, you've likely noticed that there's been no real change in mortgage rates going back 3 or 4 weeks. Or, maybe you haven't noticed.

Either way, it's bad for rate shoppers. Pricing has hit a wall and getting set to reverse higher. It's all about momentum and when you watch what rates have been doing since April, it'll all make sense.

Check out this timeline:

• Early-April : Eyjafjallajökull erupts, starting rates downward
• Mid-April : Greece sovereign debt issues arise; the slide continues.
• Early-June : Soft U.S. data keeps rates falling
• Mid-June : Mortgage rates reach new, all-time lows
• Late-June : Mortgage rates continue to make new, all-time lows
• Early-July : Mortgage rates bottom out; the Refi Boom begins

But since early-July, there's been no movement in the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, no movement in the 15-year fixed, and no movement in the ARMs. Rates are "stuck".

And, unfortunately, mortgage markets don't work like strength-training where a person plateaus for a few weeks, and then makes more gains.

In the Mortgage World, when momentum stops, it's because there's a force pulling in the opposite direction.

Lock That Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

After 14 weeks, mortgage rate momentum has stopped dead in its tracks. This should be your signal to lock in that rate.

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead?  I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Forecast Only

By way of disclosure, these mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages only. The survey is national, covering Cincinnati, Ohio; Potomac, Maryland; and, everywhere else.  FHA streamline refinances are not covered because FHA mortgage rates are based on GNMA securities. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Florida, condotels in Chicago, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate predictions for the next week:

• 22% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 11% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 67% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching a construction paper re-enactment of every original Mortal Kombat death move.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"It's been three weeks with no change whatsoever. Rates have troughed. Increases are ahead."

Mortgage markets can't seem to break through resistance. It's signal that higher rates are coming.

For Mortgage Rates Clues, Watch Patterns

Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds and, like stocks, bonds respond to changes in economic data including inflation readings, jobs surveys, and housing reports. It's called "fundamental trading"; changing your risk positions based on measurable, quantifiable data.

However, there's another, equally-important type of market-making called "technical trading".

Technical trading is pattern-based trading, using historical trends and algorithms to predict where an asset's price will go next. Trading is carried out by software looking for peaks, valleys, and humps in an asset's pricing history with the assumption they'll repeat themselves.

Today, despite fundamental reasons for mortgage rates to fall, technical reasons are keeping them up.  Mortgage rates have tried to cut lower for 3 weeks now but can't seem to break through. This is technical trading in the wild.

When rates can't go lower, they must go up instead.

Rates Will Fall Again, But Not For A Few Weeks

30-year fixed mortgage rates are in the 4s.  5-year ARMs are in the 3s.  Rates like this warrant a phone call to your lender to at least ask about a refinance.

Call your loan officer and get the math. There's an excellent chance that refinancing your home will lower your mortgage rate and lower your bills substantially.  And, if you're worried about increasing your loan balance, just ask for a "zero cost" mortgage -- the rates on those are really low, too.

Just don't twiddle your thumbs.

Mortgage rates wait for no one and spikes can happen quickly.  The good news, though, is that technical trading factors will eventually bring mortgage rates back lower -- that just may not happen in the time frame in which you need it.

There's no time like the present, in other words.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

Looking to lock a mortgage rate? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Forecast Only

By way of disclosure, these mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages only. FHA streamline refinances are not covered, nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati, Ohio or Bethesda, Maryland, for example. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Florida, condotels in Chicago, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate predictions for the next week:

• 55% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 5% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 40% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching the reason Auto-Tune was invented. It's a double rainbow. OMG.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The 3-month rally in rates continues (until there's reason for it to end)."

Mortgage rates have been dropping since early-April. Why stop now?

Mortgage Rates Are Falling In Cincinnati. Still.

Next verse, same as the last verse. We've been talking mortgage rates falling for 3 months now.

Here's why it's happening. Mortgage rates are low, not because the housing market is strong, or because the U.S. economy is thriving, but because other nations are struggling and investors want to preserve their capital.

It's called "safe-haven buying". In uncertain times, investors shun risk and move cash to higher-quality assets.

The goal of safe haven buying is capital preservation. A small, safe return trumps the risk of losing it all. Almost like lemmings, investors have decided that the "safe" place to invest right now is in debt backed by the U.S. government. This includes mortgage-backed bonds, of course, which are the basis for conforming mortgage rates.

With the extra demand, bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall. This cycle continues until bond rates get too low for investors to want to buy them. At that point, the market usually reverses for the worse and rates rise.

If You Press Your Luck, You're Bound To Get Whammied

Low rates can't last forever. They just can't.

Today is not "the new normal" -- don't fool yourself into thinking it is. Someday, our children will study the Summer of 2010 in their finance books. What we're witnessing is unprecedented and unlikely to repeat.

Just like folks get nostalgic for the 80s and say, "Remember when you felt lucky to get a 16% mortgage rate?" with a laugh, they'll do the same about 2010. "Remember when rates were in the 4s?"

I mean, srsly, people.  The fours.  What are you waiting for?

In the last few days, "ideal" borrowers have seen their 5-year ARM pricing fall below 3.500 percent with 0 points; the 30-year fixed pricing below 4.375 percent. Really.

If the thought of a refinance has even crossed your mind, talk to your loan officer and get the math. No matter how long you've held your mortgage, there's a pretty good chance that a refinance can:

1. Lower your mortgage rate by a lot
2. Lower your mortgage payment substantially
3. Keep your out-of-pocket costs low

Just don't sit on it. Mortgage markets change rapidly, and without notice. We've seen big, quick rate spikes several times already this year and it could definitely happen again.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. Rates will fall in the next week, but by how much really? Don't be greedy. Be smart.

Looking to lock a mortgage rate? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Forecast Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA streamline refinances nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati, Ohio or Leesburg, Virginia, for example. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and the 5-10 Properties program may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the survey panel's mortgage rate predictions:

• 33% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 11% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 56% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this compilation of the 100 Best Movie Insults Of All-Time.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Rates ease lower, but don't get caught watching the paint dry. It's time to lock."

Mortgage rates have been falling for 14 weeks and it's easy to get complacent at a time like this. Don't.

The World's Pain Is YOUR Mortgage Rate Gain

Mortgage rates are lower than they've been in history.  You can thank the rest of the world for that.  What started as a general concern that Greece would default on its debt has spilled over to the entire Eurozone region.

Furthermore, there's doubts about the strength of China's recovery and with each additional drip of negative news, investors grow increasingly skittish.

It's a global gut check and stock markets are suffering. Wall Street is selling equities and indices are making new lows.  The early-year rally is stalling and bond markets are making gains.

Rate shoppers are winning big.

With government-backed mortgage bonds in high demand, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are now below 4.500 for folks willing to pay discount points and ARMs are now posting in the 2s.  Yes, the twos.

Who could ask for anything more?

Don't Be Greedy. Don't Be Greedy. Don't Be Greedy.

There's always a choice, brotha.

1. You can wait for mortgage rates to fall even lower
2. You can lock today's low rates, the proverbial bird-in-hand

I can't tell you what's best for you, but if the question of a refinance crosses your mind -- if even for moment -- make sure you talk to your loan officer to get the math.  No matter how long you've held your mortgage, there's a pretty good chance you can (1) Lower your mortgage rate, (2) Lower your mortgage payment, and (3) Keep your out-of-pocket costs to a minimum.

And while we're on the topic: Having a conversation with your friend or family member about "mortgage rates" is not the same thing as talking to a loan officer.  No offense, but Aunt Ginny just ain't plugged in to mortgages, mortgage bonds, and mortgage pricing.

Mortgage markets change rapidly, and without notice. We've seen huge rate spikes more than a few times this year so far it could definitely happen again.

When rates start to rise, they'll rise quickly.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. Rates will fall in the next week, but by how much really? Don't be greedy. Be smart.

Looking to lock a mortgage rate? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Forecast Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA streamline refinances nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati or Philadelphia, for example. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and the 5-10 Properties program may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the survey panel's mortgage rate predictions:

• 35% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 65% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this hastily made tourism video for Cleveland.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"With the Fed meeting next week, markets move to wait-and-see mode."

It's all quiet on the Wall Street front until next Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve Meets Next Week

The Federal Open Market Committee begins a scheduled 2-day meeting next Tuesday.  It's one of 8 meetings for the year and there's absolutely no expectation for the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate.

That doesn't mean mortgage rates won't change, however.

The Federal Reserve is the nation's Central Banker, setting monetary policy for the banks and business, and, ultimately, that policy trickles down to consumers in the form of Cost of Living adjustments, credit card borrowing rates, and mortgage rates.

Since December 2008, the Fed has kept the Fed Funds Rate in a target range of near 0.000 percent.  In doing so, it's helped stimulate the economy and, on record, the recession that the Fed's move was meant to lessen, did actually end at some point mid-2009.

Why Rates Won't Move Until Bernanke Has Spoken

Although the Fed won't raise the Fed Funds Rate, it can still make a big impact with its post-meeting press release.  The press release highlights the strengths, weaknesses and threats to the economy as seen by the Federal Reserve.

Lately, economic data is conflicting.  Jobs look strong, then weak.  Inflation looks weak, then strong. Manufacturing is all over the map.  And that's just here at home.

Globally, there's nations in massive debt and reeling.  And there's others that are moving to constrain their growth.

For safety, Wall Street is squaring is bets in advance of the Fed's meeting. There won't be much activity between now and Wednesday.

I think.

Recommendation : Float Cautiously

Despite the next half-week's lull, don't turn your back on the market for a second.

One of the hallmarks of mortgage markets is its propensity to change rapidly, and without notice. We've seen it more than a few times already this year and Mortgage Rate Velocity remains extremely high.

Unless you're shopping for a jumbo mortgage, or in need of an interest mortgage, there's very little reason to lock.  Conforming rates should stay calm.  Use the "downtime" to get your mortgage application into a loan officer because once the Fed does adjourn, rates should move quickly.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process. To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or .

Looking to lock a mortgage rate? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey results may help give you guidance.

Predicting Conforming Mortgage Rates Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati or Washington, D.C, for example. Furthermore, unique property types including Chicago non-warrantable condos, condotels and the 5-10 Properties program may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the survey panel's mortgage rate predictions:

• 38% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 62% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent with chickens, monkeys and ducks.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Stock market gains are bond market losses.  Mortgage rates rise."

If you know what to watch for, you'll see the rate hikes coming.

The Relationship Between Stocks And Bonds

On any given day, you might turn on CNBC and hear an analyst talk about "stock markets gaining and bond markets losing" followed by commentary about how investors are in search of risk and shedding their bond portfolio.

On the next day, however, you could hear the exact opposite analysis -- "stock markets losing and bond markets gaining" because investors changed their mind and are shunning risk in search of safety.

Hear it enough times, and you start to believe that stock markets and bond markets are opposites; when one is up, the other is down. It's a falsehood, though. Stocks and bonds sometimes move in opposite directions.

Not always.  Sometimes.

Right now is one of those times.

Risk-Taking Returns, Dooming Mortgage Rates

Over the past month-and-a-half, global stock markets have been selling off en masse.

A combination of natural disaster, sovereign debt concerns and fear of a global economic slowdown have pushed investors away from stock markets and toward the relative safety of bond markets.

We have to remember that big, fear-based movements are temporary.   Eventually, fear subsides. Otherwise the stock market would still be reeling from 1929, 1987 and 2008.

Fear is rarely as profitable as greed, after all, and once investors acclimate to bad news, they start looking for good news.

"Good" news, by the way, is reason to chase risk; to get back into stocks. It's also one of those times that stocks and bonds move in opposite directions.  Mortgage rates will rise when stock markets rally and there's plenty of reasons to rally right now.

• The housing market should sustain itself post-tax credit
• More than a half-million jobs have already been created this year
• Consumer confidence in the economy is at pre-recession levels

Oh, and it's not just domestic growth, either.  Canada just became the first member of the G-7 to raise its version of the Fed Funds Rate.

The economy is back. Stock markets will be, too

Recommendation : Lock Your Mortgage Rate ASAP

MRV -- Mortgage Rate Velocity -- is as high as its been in a year and rate changes come quickly. If you haven't given a loan application to your loan officer, do it today.

The longer you wait, the more your next loan may cost you because once the stock market starts its rally, it'll be swift. Rates will rise quickly.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process. To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or . And be sure to give applications to other loan officers, too. Don't worry -- your credit score won't be damaged if you do it the right way.

Looking for a mortgage rate prediction? I am a weekly participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey may have the answers you need.

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati or Milwaukee. Furthermore, unique property types including Chicago non-warrantable condos, condotels and the 5-10 Properties program may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 24% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 24% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 52% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent with chickens, monkeys and ducks.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The last three times mortgage rates fell to these levels, it was short-lived and reversed in a hurry. If you haven't locked in yet, consider this Last Call."

In the Mortgage World, the trend is your friend. Ignore past history at your own peril.

First, Why Mortgage Rates Are Still So Low

Next verse, same as the last verse.

Since early-April, we've been talking on the same theme -- mortgage rates benefit when credit markets go haywire, like what Greece's debt crisis has sparked. The cause is something called "safe haven buying".

Alternatively, safe haven buying is known as "flight-to-quality", or "risk aversion".

Regardless of what you call it, though, the patterns is distinguished by a specific trading pattern in which investors sells higher-risk assets in favor of lower-risk assets.

A high-risk asset could be something like a junk bond, or an emerging market's currency. A low-risk asset is something like a government-backed bond, or the U.S. dollar.

So, when credit markets get bad, investors move to the safety of bonds.  And when credit markets get really bad, they move to the safest bonds they can find.

Right now, with all of Europe surrounded by a giant question mark, that "safest place" has become the U.S. market. Everything dollar-denominated is winning.  Mortgage bonds included.

Safe haven buying increases demand for bonds and more demand drives rates lower.

Safe Haven Buying Doesn't Last Forever

European credit strife is shifting U.S. mortgage rates lower, but it's a temporary condition.  Mortgage rates won't stay low like this for long. For a few reasons:

First, over time, markets always return to normal. Fear gets replaced by greed and profit-taking takes hold. Sometimes this happens overnight, sometimes it takes months or years.  But it happens every time.  There is no "new normal". 30-year mortgage rates don't sit below 5 percent forever.

Second, technical trading is still a force on Wall Street. Different from the emotional nature of safe haven buying, technical trading is pattern-based trading, often executed by computer programs.

Technical trading looks for peaks, valleys, and humps in the history of a security's price, and assumes those peaks, valleys and humps will repeat themselves. The computers then make trades based on those assumptions which, in essence, actually causes the pattern to repeat. Think of it like a self-fulfilling prophecy for Wall Street securities.

Right now, we're at a pricing peak and looking down the cliff.

And, lastly, mortgage rates can't stay low like this because the Federal Reserve is holding hundreds of billions of mortgage-backed bonds on its books and, although it's said there's no rush to sell, with so much demand for the bonds, safe haven buying helps the Fed make an orderly exit.

It's tough to dump close to a trillion dollars of supply into a market without causing prices to fall.  Even if it's at a measured pace.

The Prudent Choice Is To Lock Your Mortgage Rate Now

There's very little reason for mortgage rates to drop right now. Markets have squeezed a ton of gains out the European debt scenario. It's time to move into locking position.

MRV -- Mortgage Rate Velocity -- is as high as its been in a year and rate changes come quickly. If you haven't given a loan application to your loan officer, think about doing it today. The longer you wait, the more this next loan may cost you.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process. To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or . And be sure to give applications to other loan officers, too. Don't worry -- your credit score won't be damaged if you do it the right way.

Looking for a mortgage rate prediction? I am a weekly participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey may have the answers you need.

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages nor is the survey specific to Ohio or Illinois mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 35% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 18% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 47% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching Tayne do a Hat Wobble and a Flarhgunnstow.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Apparently, the Greek debt crisis ain't over till it's over. And rates stay steady till it is."

It's like White Men Can't Jump.  Every time you think the story's over, it's not. And it goes on and on and on.

Safe Haven Buying Continues Because Of Greece

Safe haven buying is a market trading pattern. It describes a risk-averting trading pattern that often emerges during periods of economic uncertainty. Investors move money away from riskier investments and into safer ones.

One way to do that is by selling high-risk assets and investing the proceeds in ultra-safe securities.

Right now, with the future of Euro sovereign debt in doubt, a lot of high-risk/high-reward assets and getting sold off.  And domestic mortgage bonds are reaping the rewards.

Why mortgage bonds?  Because MBS is backed by the U.S. government and our government's pledge to service debt is stronger than oak.  That makes them safe and causes demand to rise.

More bond demand means higher bond prices which leads to lower rates.

Bond rates move opposite bond prices.

Too Much Fear Will Cause Rates To Backfire

Fear and doubt work in favor of mortgage rates.  Too much fear and doubt, however, work against them. It's why mortgage rates won't fall further in this next week.

Mortgage bonds are quality assets, but on the debt totem pole, they sit second to treasury debt.

In other words, when things get really bad, U.S. treasuries tend to rally more than mortgage bonds. Both improve, but treasuries improve by more.  And that's what's starting to happen.  The spreads between treasuries and MBS are growing and it shows us that investor fear is growing.

Mortgage rates may have fallen as far as they're going to fall.

It's A Safe Time To Lock A Mortgage Rate

There's very little reason for mortgage rates to drop right now. Markets have already squeezed the gains out the Greece debt scenario. It's time to move into locking position.

MRV -- Mortgage Rate Velocity -- is as high as its been in a year and rate changes have come quickly. If you haven't given a loan application to your loan officer, think about doing it today. The longer you wait, the more this next loan may cost you.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process. To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or . And be sure to give applications to other loan officers, too. Don't worry -- your credit score won't be damaged if you do it the right way.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a weekly participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate survey and this week's survey may have the answers you need.

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages nor is the survey specific to Ohio or Illinois mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 47% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 12% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 41% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent with D'Andre Cole than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"While gas prices rise, so will mortgage rates. Get locked ASAP."

Rates are already pushing north. The best rates of the month have passed.

Gas Prices Are Tied To Inflation

Gas prices are up 10% in the last 2 months and the summer driving season hasn't even started yet.  And more than any other force, rising gas prices can foreshadow higher mortgage rates for homeowners because it's inflationary.

The relationship is indirect but worth a look.

First, the catalyst.  Oil prices rise.  This happens for one of 3 reasons:

1. Growing economies are expected to consume more oil (i.e. more demand for oil)
2. The world's oil exporters reduce drilling capacity (i.e. less supply of oil)
3. The U.S. dollar loses value and oil is bought/paid for using U.S. dollars

We're seeing a combination of all 3 right now.  Economies are expanding, oil availability is down, and the dollar is weaker.  As a result, crude oil is up 20% in the last 2 months.  That's a lot.

Then, as oil prices rise, the higher cost of energy spills into everyday life, creating inflationary pressures and causing mortgage rates to rise.

Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.

The Other Reason Mortgage Rates Are Rising

Lately, mortgage rates have been artificially low. There's no good reason why we're seeing conforming mortgage rates at levels like this.  The Fed left the MBS market March 31, 2010 and rates were supposed to rise in response.  But they didn't.

It's because of "safe haven" buying.

Safe haven buying, in a nutshell, is when investors move assets to safe places to avoid a sudden increase in risk somewhere else.  Mortgage bonds, of course, are considered "safe".  They're backed by the U.S. government.

Meanwhile, safe haven buying can be triggered by geopolitics, meteorological events, and financial "problems", among other things. Since the start of the month, we've had all three. Eyjafjallajokull and Greece took most of the headlines and as these events transpired, mortgage rates improved.

The events have now passed.

The ash cloud is gone and Greece secured the IMF's help for its debt.  Safe haven patterns are no longer needed.  Mortgage bonds will unwind as a result.  Mortgage rates will rise.

Get Your Rate Lock Turned In ASAP

There's little to keep mortgage rates low right now.  The Fed is out of the market, the economy is gaining, and safe haven buying is hasta la bye-bye.

It's time to move into locking position. MRV -- Mortgage Rate Velocity -- is as high as its been in a year.  Rate changes are fast and damanging.  If you haven't given a loan application to your loan officer, do it today. The longer you wait, the more this next loan is going to cost you.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process. To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or . And be sure to give applications to other loan officers, too. Don't worry -- your credit score won't be damaged if you do it the right way.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate survey and this week's results may help you time a rate lock.

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages nor is the survey specific to South Carolina or Virginia mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 39% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 22% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 39% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent with D'Andre Cole than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"As safe haven buying recedes, mortgage rates advance."

I hope you took advantage of the low rates last week because it'll be the last time we go sub-5 percent maybe ever.

Last Week, Why Did Rates Fall So Much?

Recent gains in the mortgage market are a direct result of something called "safe haven buying". It's market jargon and it's used to describe a trading pattern that tends to emerge during times of uncertainty.

Safe haven buying is characterized by large numbers of investors moving money away from risky investments and toward safer ones.  It's a logical response to surprise events.

Rather than doubling down on their bets in play, traders take their chips off the risk table until the future gets less murky and that's a big reason of why rates fell last week. Greece has yet to show it can meet its debt obligations and there's concern that a default could bring down the broader European Union.

As far as investor risks go, this is a big one.

Why You Should Count On A Turnaround

This past Tuesday, Greece held a successful debt auction. Investors clamored for short-term securities as leaders in the EU pledged support to the nation.

Demand outweighed supply by a multiple of 7.67.  That's huge.  It shows that markets are confident in Greece's ability to recover and it's no coincidence that Tuesday marked the week's low point for U.S. mortgage rates.

Investors are unwinding their safe haven trades, dumping excess mortgage bonds into the open market, pressuring mortgage rates to move higher.

Get ahead of the rate changes because MRV -- Mortgage Rate Velocity -- is as high as its been in a year.

Rate hikes are coming this week and they're going to hit hard.

Float or Lock? Get Your Strategy In Place

Mortgage markets are no longer favorable. Safe haven patterns have receded and there's little to keep mortgage rates low.  The economy continues to show incremental improvement and the stock market is racing past 11,000.

Don't get caught watching the paint dry.

You may have gotten off easy by floating your rate up until now, but it's time to move into locking position.  If you haven't given a loan application to your loan officer, do it ASAP. The longer you wait, the more this next loan is going to cost you.

However, being "alert" is only one part of being ready. You must also have a loan application on file with your lender.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process.  To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or . And be sure to give applications to other loan officers, too.  Don't worry -- your credit score won't be damaged if you do it the right way.

Then, once you're done shopping, you can lock on the spot without fear of rates going nuts on you. MRV is extremely high right now. Change happens in a flash.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate survey and this week's results may help you time a rate lock.

Conventional, Conforming Mortgage Rates

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Maryland or Virginia mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 38% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 31% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 31% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching Biz's Beat of The Day than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The last week was an overreaction. Rates ease lower in the near-term."

Last week saw 5 straight days of mortgage market losses. Rates shot higher.  Now, we get the correction.

Last Week, Why Did Rates Rise So Much?

A lot transpired last week that directly impacted mortgage rates.

First, the Federal Reserve stopped buying new mortgage-backed securities.  This was not a surprise by any means -- the Fed had been announced a March 31 end date for month, but after all the short coverings had come and gone, mortgage markets traded worse ahead of the expected supply-demand imbalance.

Lower bond prices yield higher mortgage rates.

Better-than-expected data on the economy helped push rates north, too.  Auto sales were way up, the Case-Shiller showed strength in housing, and the jobs report was nearly nearly as bad as it looked on the surface.

Furthermore, because of Spring Break, trading volume was thin and that magnified the jumps in pricing.

Overall, mortgage pricing shed 103 basis points, roughly equal to a 0.375% rise in rates.

Why Are Rates Coming Back Down?

Lucky for rate shoppers, mortgage markets over-reacted (like they always do).  This week is the bounce-back.

Trading volume is back to normal levels, Wall Street is grabbing some profits, and mortgage pricing is improving.  Plus, helping rates fall even further, debt concerns are re-emerging in Greece and it's driving the same type of safe haven buying that dropped 30-year fixed rates to near 5.000 percent in early-March.

Rates won't come all the way down to 5, but they will be lower seven days from now.

Your Mortgage Rate Strategy For The Week

Don't be in a hurry to lock a mortgage rate, but don't be careless, either. Markets are favorable but can change in an instant.  You don't want to be on the wrong side of that gamble.  It can mean the difference between saving 1/8 percent or losing it.

You're probably going to want your loan officer to help you with timing so be sure to ask.

Or, if your loan officer doesn't seem to be in touch with real-time market movements and the stories that shape your pricing, with your situation and I'll get you set up with the lowest rate I can.

It would be my pleasure -- I love to work with my readers.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

Conventional, Conforming Mortgage Rates

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to North Carolina or Texas mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 33% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 8% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 59% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching the 3rd best Saturday Night Live Opening Monologue of all-time than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The complete absence of inflation leads rates lower."

For all this talk of the Federal Reserve ending its support for mortgage markets, a more insidious force on rates is inflation.  And without inflation, U.S. mortgage bonds go in demand.

What Is Inflation?

There is a daisy-chain relationship between inflation and mortgage rates and it's a simple one to understand.

First, a definition. Inflation is the devaluation of a currency. For example, if you can buy a loaf a bread, container of milk, and stick of butter for $5 today but the same groceries costs you $5.50 next year -- all things equal -- that's an inflation rate of 10%.

Most people look at this and say "prices went up". That's one way to look at it. Another perspective is that the dollars in our wallet are less valuable than they used to be.

This is how markets view inflation.

Inflation Is The Enemy Of Mortgage Rates

With respect to mortgage bonds, inflation can be devastating.  This is because mortgage bonds are denominated in U.S. dollars and all coupon payments are made in U.S. dollars.  If the dollar is losing value, mortgage bonds become less attractive to investors.

Less demand drives bond prices down which, in turn, push bond yields up. Mortgage rates rise.

Even worse is that it doesn't take actual inflation to make mortgage rates rise.  Even just the threat of inflation can do the job.  This was the case in June 2009 when mortgage rates leaped 1.125% in 10 days.  If you were shopping for a mortgage at the time, you remember how scary it was.  Lenders were issuing up to 5 rate sheets in a day.

But without inflation -- or the threat of it -- mortgage rates can benefit.  And that's what we're seeing now.

• The Federal Reserve says inflation should remain low for a while
• The Producer Price Index is dropping
• The Consumer Price Index is dropping

Each of these points makes market feel like inflation is a ways away. As a result, mortgage bonds are in demand.

No inflation, no rise in rates.  At least for now.

Rate Increases Aren't Out Of The Question

If you need a rate lock, consider taking it this week.  Timing still looks right and locking a rate can never be wrong.  The wildcard here is the Fed's termination of its $1.25 trillion support for mortgage markets.  It's possible that markets could spook when the program ends March 31 and that could send rates northward.

Rates are down 1 percent since the program started and it's reasonable to expect them to give back some -- or all -- of the improvements once the Fed bows out.

You're playing with fire if you ride this out too long. For now, though, float.

Ride It Out, But Be Ready To Lock

Mortgage rates change all the time. Make sure you're not locking too soon. It can be the difference between saving 1/8 percent or losing it. You're going to want your loan officer to help you with timing.

Or, if it's easier for you, with your situation and we'll get you set up with the lowest rate we can.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

Conventional, Conforming Mortgage Rates

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to North Carolina or Texas mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 57% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 43% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching the only working mousetrap ever made than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Home buyers are out in force. The economy wins. Rate shoppers lose."

Purchase activity is up. Talk with your friends in real estate, talk with your friends in mortgage, talk with, really, somewhat involved in the real estate business.  Home buyers are out and they're writing contracts.

It's good news for the economy and bad news for mortgage rates.

When You Buy A Home, You Buy "Stuff", Too

To understand why housing matters to mortgage rates and the economy, just think about the last time you moved and the purchases you made.  Especially if you moved to a bigger place.

Did you buy new furniture?  What about new blinds, drapes and window dressings? A new television (or three)? Not to mention the countless trips to Home Depot for little things like air filters, light bulbs, and key copies.

All of these purchases fall under the "consumer spending" category and consumer spending accounts for 70% of the economy.

More people moving means more consumer spending. And there's a lot more people moving.

Geopolitics Can't Keep Mortgage Rates Down

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve ends its $1.25 trillion mortgage market commitment this month and, by all accounts, mortgage rates should be rising in advance of it. Instead, they're falling.

As Greece deals with debt worries, and China deals with inflation, and the U.S. dollar gains, mortgage markets have been a sound place to invest.  The extra demand for bonds is pushing mortgage rates down. But this rally rooted in geopolitics -- not in hard data.

It can't last.  Especially with the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

There'll be no rate changes from the Fed, but look for more optimistic verbiage from the Fed with respect to the economy's current and future prospects. The Fed speaks in data and data points to recovery.

Rate Increases Will Happen Quickly

If you need a rate lock, consider taking it this week.  The timing is right and locking a rate can never be wrong.

That said, you'll probably want some help to lock at the exact right moment. Mortgage rates change all the time. Make sure you're not locking too soon. It can be the difference between saving 1/8 percent or losing it. You're going to want your loan officer to help you with timing.

Or, if it's easier for you, with your situation and we'll get you set up with the lowest rate we can.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

Conventional, Conforming Mortgage Rates

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati or Chicago mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 43% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 57% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching the only working mousetrap ever made than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Markets adjust to Life After Fed Intervention."

We can say it a thousand times and it would still be a thousand times too few -- the Federal Reserve is withdrawing its mortgage market support March 31, 2010.  Indeed, the Fed's barely a player even now as its intervention winds down to nothing.

Last week, it bought just $11 billion worth. And here's why it matters.

The Biggest Bond Buyer Is Going Bye-Bye

Since the end of 2008, the Federal Reserve has been the biggest open-market purchaser of mortgage bonds and the net impact of that intervention is lower mortgage rates by 1 percent. In other words, mortgage rates are 5 percent right now. They'd be 6 percent without the Fed.

"Without the Fed" starts in 27 days.

Mortgage rates have been low lately, and falling. It's unexpected.  Also, it's easy to get lulled into thinking that rates are down because markets are shrugging off the Fed's deadline.  Don't make that mistake.

Mortgage rates are lower for a few reasons, all of which increase demand for U.S. mortgage bonds.  More demand mean higher bonds prices and, therefore, lower mortgage rates.

1. Greece is having debt issues, pushing investors to buy "safe" securities like bonds
2. Economic growth is steady, but precariously balanced. Without clarity, investors seek safety.
3. Rumors that the Fed (or another agency) will extend the program beyond its original expiration date.

Don't expect these conditions to last.

They've been lucky so far but, pretty soon, mortgage rate shoppers are soon to face the music. You don't want to be on the wrong side of this bet. Rate jumps will be fast and fierce.

Rate Hikes Will Be Fast And Fierce

If you need a rate lock, take your chips off the table and get it done.

That said, locking mortgages is a timing game and you'll still want some help to get it right. On some days, rates will over-react higher, and on other days, they'll retreat.  You're going to want your loan officer to offer some coaching.  Call "your guy" or, if it's easier for you, with your situation.

I handle all of my own mail and I would love to get you a good rate. It's what I do best.

Plus, my bank has good, low mortgage rates. Just ask me about it.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati or Chicago mortgage rates.  Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 27% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 73% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching The Greatest Network Television Weather Forecast of All-Time than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Markets are in a Tug-O-War -- it's Geopolitics versus The Fed."

There's lot of reasons why mortgage rates change -- revised expectations for the economy, new Fed monetary policy, and psychological factors on Wall Street are among them.

In total, there are hundreds of influences on the day-to-day mortgage rates you and I see from the banks.  It's part of why predicting mortgage rates so challenging.  We can never know which of the hundreds are influences are about to come into play.

We can break influences down into two parts -- obvious, and non-obvious.

Obvious influences are inflation data, housing stats, and job markets.  These we can prepare for; can be proactive about. And, indeed, Wall Street does.  The preparation is why mortgage rates tend trend higher or lower heading into a "major" news release.  The movement is the market squaring its bets.

It's the non-obvious factors, though, that really screw things up.

• An "emergency" change to monetary or fiscal policy, at home or abroad
• A sudden change in the political climate, at home or abroad
• An outbreak of -- or an end to -- war, terror, disease or the like, at home or abroad

In other words, anything that "shocks" the global financial system.

There was a terrific example of such a shock two weeks ago. One day, everyone woke up and suddenly thought Greece couldn't meet it country's debt obligation. The thought drove fear through the Eurozone, then through the broader market, and eventually, it led to safe-haven buying that propped up U.S. mortgage markets.

There's other recent examples, too. Like when the Fed initially announced its support for the mortgage-backed bond market in November 2008; or, when inflation numbers ran much hotter-than-expecter near the end of May 2009.

It happened yesterday, too.

The Fed released the minutes from its January 2010 meeting Wednesday afternoon and there was an underlying message that "change is coming".  Markets didn't expect to hear that just yet and it sent mortgage markets reeling.  Rates spiked by an eighth-percent within minutes of The Minutes' release.

As a rate shopper, unexpected news is frightening. It makes markets do things you wouldn't expect.  And that's why we're calling for a draw over the next week. The likelihood of Eurozone debt concerns leading mortgage rates lower will be offset by the tendency of rates to rise when the Fed starts talking strength.

That said, if you need a rate locked in the next week or so, consider doing it sooner rather than later.  The Fed's exit from the mortgage market is going to push rates up and that exit's in less than 5 weeks.  It's time to get a move on.

Locking mortgages is a timing game and you'll want some help to get it right. Call your loan officer or, if it's easier for you, with your situation. I handle all of my own email and I am happy to get you a good rate lock. It's what I do best.

Plus, my bank has good, low mortgage rates. Just ask me about it.