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December Jobs Report : Bad For Workers, Excellent For Home Buyers

Posted on January 8, 2010
Filed under Non-Farm Payrolls
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Non-Farm Payrolls Net Job Gains January 2008-December 2009December's jobs report was released this morning. It showed 85,000 jobs lost last month and no change in the Unemployment Rate.

For stock markets and out-for-work Americans, the figures are disappointing.  Net job loss slows economic recovery and creates an uncertain business climate.

Domestic growth is tempered until the jobs market returns.

But December's weak jobs data isn't universally awful. With the bad there comes some good.  See, prior to the release this morning, the Non-Farm Payrolls numbers were steadily improving.

  • 6 months ago, 463,000 jobs were lost
  • 3 months ago, 219,000 jobs were lost
  • Last month, 4,000 jobs were created

Furthermore, there's been signals from the market that the economy has turned the corner.  Retail Sales are up and consumer confidence is returning.  Heck, even the Federal Reserve gave an optimistic outlook for 2010.

These stories played a big part in pushing the Dow to its 2009 high-point in December.  They also explain why mortgage rates went to crap.  A soft economy kept mortgage rates low in 2009.  Therefore, it should only follow that a firming economy causes them to rise.

That's exactly what happened in December.

Mortgage pricing worsened by 300 basis points with the biggest market losses coming in the last 10 days.  It happened because Wall Street expected 2010 to come out of the gates at full speed towards full recovery. Investors made their bets accordingly. Many chased risk, few wanted bonds.

And then today happened. The December jobs report is anything but "full speed". It's more of a trot. The negative print is forcing Wall Street to adjust.

Rate shoppers and Cincinnati home buyers are ecstatic.

Conforming mortgage rates are already 1/8 better today. FHA mortgages are improved, too.

Now, as a layperson, it's tough for you to keep track of the (literally) hundreds of things that make mortgage rates move. You don't have the time and you don't pay for the tools.  But I do.  And I share what I know with my clients.

If you know you'll need a mortgage in February, March or April 2010, know that rates will be volatile while Wall Street comes to terms on the economy. When it comes time to lock a rate, you can be pretty sure you'll get better terms by working with me that if you're working with your current lender's 800-number Call Center or some generic "web company".

Believe it or not, those people don't pay for good data.  They just watch the tickers on TV. And they rarely advise.

To get a better rate on your mortgage, call or to introduce yourself. I answer all of my own emails and like working with my readers.  Plus, I'm licensed in most states.

December's jobs report shows that the economy isn't 100% recovered yet. Until it is, mortgage rates will be bumpy. Knowing the precise moment to lock would save you interest rate and money.


Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

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