Will Interest Rates Drop in September 2024? | Mortgage Rates Forecast

Mortgage rate forecast for next week (Sept. 9-13)

Mortgage interest rates stayed flat from a week ago.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) held at 6.35% from Aug. 29 to Sept. 5, according to Freddie Mac.

“Mortgage rates remained flat this week as markets await the release of the highly anticipated August jobs report,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac. “Even though rates have come down over the summer, home sales have been lackluster. On the refinance side however, homeowners who bought in recent years are taking advantage of declining mortgage rates in order to lower their monthly payments.”

In this article (Skip to...)

• Will rates go down in September?
• 90-day forecast
• Expert rate predictions
• Mortgage rate trends
• Rates by loan type
• Mortgage strategies for September
• Mortgage rates FAQ

Will mortgage rates go down in September?

Mortgage rates fluctuated significantly in 2023, with the average 30-year fixed rate going as low as 6.09% on Feb. 2 and as high as 7.79% on Oct. 26, according to Freddie Mac.

With the economy possibly heading into a recession, we may have already seen the peak of this rate cycle. Of course, interest rates are notoriously volatile and could tick back up on any given week.

Experts from CoreLogic, Realtor.com and others weigh in on whether 30-year mortgage rates will climb, fall, or level off in September.

Expert mortgage rate predictions for September

Molly Boesel, senior principal economist at CoreLogic

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“The July inflation numbers showed that prices are following a path that will allow for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Once the Fed begins easing, mortgage rates should follow their downward path as well. Look for the 30-year mortgage rate to remain in the mid-6% range in September.”

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

Prediction: Rates will rise

“September is the Fed Meeting most home market watchers have been looking forward to, in anticipation of the first Fed rate cut in over two years. This should create a sentiment that starts to bring interest rates down through the end of 2024. But for September, I believe a lot of rate reduction has been built into the market already based on speculation of a Fed cut. The 30-year fixed rate should average around 7% and the 15-year at 6.625%.”

Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American

Prediction: Rates will decline

“The anticipation of a Fed rate cut in September has largely been factored into existing mortgage rates. However, if incoming data is weaker than expected, implying more aggressive rate cuts, there could be additional downward pressure on mortgage rates. Conversely, if the data demonstrates economic resilience and labor market strength, rates may stabilize or even rise. Some week-to-week volatility is expected as investors adjust their expectations based on new information, but we should see the 10-year Treasury yield at least stabilize or continue on a downward trend, leading to a gradual decline in mortgage rates throughout the rest of the year.”

Ralph McLaughlin, senior economist at Realtor.com

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“We expect mortgage rates to bounce around a bit over the next several weeks before falling to around the 6.4% mark by mid-to-late September. The short term volatility in rates will be due to expectations around the July PCE and August jobs report, but ultimately we expect rates to fall by 5-10 basis points as we approach the Fed meeting in September.”

Rick Sharga, founder and CEO at CJ Patrick Comapny

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“It seems that the market is already pricing in a Fed rate cut at its September meeting, so it’s unlikely that we’ll see mortgage rates fall dramatically if or when that happens. Rates have already come down by almost a full point after hitting a recent high of just over 7.5%; so a quarter-point cut by the Fed probably won’t result in mortgage rates immediately plummeting. If the Fed doesn’t cut rates, on the other hand, we could see mortgage rates spike back up over 7% almost instantly.

Longer term, the spread between 10-year Treasury yields and rates on the 30-year mortgage are still much higher than usual - about 2.7 points, compared to the usual range of 1.5-2.0 points. This means that there’s room for rates to come down meaningfully once the market is convinced that the Fed Funds rate will continue to go down over the next year. But the decline in mortgage rates is still more likely to be gradual than dramatic and sudden.”

Mortgage interest rates forecast next 90 days

As inflation ran rampant in 2022, the Federal Reserve took action to bring it down and that led to the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage spiking in 2023.

With inflation gradually cooling, the Fed adjusted its policies with skipped hikes and cuts are expected this year. Additionally, the economy showing signs of slowing has many experts believing mortgage interest rates will gradually descend in 2024.

Of course, rates could rise on any given week or if another global event causes widespread uncertainty in the economy.

Mortgage rate predictions for 2024

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.35% as of Sept. 5, according to Freddie Mac. All five major housing authorities we looked at project 2024’s third quarter average to finish above that.

Wells Fargo sits at the low end of the group, predicting the average 30-year fixed interest rate to settle at 6.4% for Q3. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors had the highest forecast of 6.9%.

Current mortgage interest rate trends

Mortgage rates sit at their lowest level since May 2023.

The average 30-year fixed rate held steady at 6.35% from Aug. 29 to Sept. 5. However, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate dropped from 5.51% to 5.47%.

Source: Freddie Mac

After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2024. Whatever happens, interest rates are still below historical averages.

Dating back to April 1971, the fixed 30-year interest rate averaged around 7.8%, according to Freddie Mac. So if you haven’t locked a rate yet, don’t lose too much sleep over it. You can still get a good deal, historically speaking — especially if you’re a borrower with strong credit.

Just make sure you shop around to find the best lender and lowest rate for your unique situation.

Mortgage rate trends by loan type

Many mortgage shoppers don’t realize there are different types of rates in today’s mortgage market. But this knowledge can help home buyers and refinancing households find the best value for their situation.

Which mortgage loan is best?

The best mortgage for you depends on your financial situation and your goals.

For instance, if you want to buy a high-priced home and you have great credit, a jumbo loan is your best bet. Jumbo mortgages allow loan amounts above conforming loan limits, which max out at $ in most parts of the U.S.

On the other hand, if you’re a veteran or service member, a VA loan is almost always the right choice. VA loans are backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. They provide ultra-low rates and never charge private mortgage insurance (PMI). But you need an eligible service history to qualify.

Conforming loans and FHA loans (those backed by the Federal Housing Administration) are great low-down-payment options.

Conforming loans allow as little as 3% down with FICO scores starting at 620. FHA loans are even more lenient about credit; home buyers can often qualify with a score of 580 or higher, and a less-than-perfect credit history might not disqualify you.

Finally, consider a USDA loan if you want to buy or refinance real estate in a rural area. USDA loans have below-market rates — similar to VA — and reduced mortgage insurance costs. The catch? You need to live in a ‘rural’ area and have moderate or low income to be USDA-eligible.

Mortgage rate strategies for September 2024

Mortgage rates continue to display their famous volatility in 2024. Anticipated Fed cuts provide optimism for descending rates, but ongoing inflation battles keep them in check.

The central bank held off on a rate hike in its past eight meetings, preferring to see if the economy would keep cooling organically. At the most recent meeting in July, the FOMC projected cuts starting as early as September. As always, the committee said it would adjust its policies as necessary — which could mean additional hikes or possibly none at all.

Here are just a few strategies to keep in mind if you’re mortgage shopping in the coming months.

Be ready to move quickly

Indecision can lead to failure or missed opportunities. That holds true in home buying as well.

Although the housing market is becoming more balanced than the recent past, it still favors sellers. Prospective borrowers should take the lessons learned from the last few years and apply them now even though conditions are less extreme.

“Taking too long to decide to make an offer can lead to paying more for the home at best and at worst to losing out on it entirely. Buyers should get pre-approved (not pre-qualified) for their mortgage, so that the seller has some certainty about the deal closing. And be ready to close quickly — a long escrow period will put you at a disadvantage.

And it’s definitely not a bad idea to work with a real estate agent who has access to “coming soon” properties, which can give a buyer a little bit of a head start competing for the limited number of homes available,” said Rick Sharga.

Buyer demand is lower than a typical year, but the market usually heats up in spring and summer. Being decisive (and prepared) should only play to your advantage.

Shopping around isn’t only for the holidays

Since interest rates can vary drastically from day to day and from lender to lender, failing to shop around likely leads to money lost.

Lenders charge different rates for different levels of credit scores. And while there are ways to negotiate a lower mortgage rate, the easiest is to get multiple quotes from multiple lenders and leverage them against each other.

“For potential home buyers, it’s important to get quotes from multiple lenders for a mortgage, as rates can vary dramatically, especially during such a volatile period,” said Odeta Kushi.

As the mortgage market slows due to lessened demand, lenders will be more eager for business. While missing out on the rock-bottom rates of 2020 and 2021 may sting, there’s always a way to use the market to your advantage.

How to shop for interest rates

Rate shopping doesn’t just mean looking at the lowest rates advertised online because those aren’t available to everyone. Typically, those are offered to borrowers with great credit who can put a down payment of 20% or more.

The rate lenders actually offer depends on:

• Your credit score and credit history
• Your personal finances
• Your down payment (if buying a home)
• Your home equity (if refinancing)
• Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV)
• Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI)

To figure out what rate a lender can offer you based on those factors, you have to fill out a loan application. Lenders will check your credit and verify your income and debts, then give you a ‘real’ rate quote based on your financial situation.

You should get three to five of these quotes at a minimum, then compare them to find the best offer. Look for the lowest rate, but also pay attention to your annual percentage rate (APR), estimated closing costs, and ‘discount points’ — extra fees charged upfront to lower your rate.

This might sound like a lot of work. But you can shop for mortgage rates in under a day if you put your mind to it. And shaving just a few basis points off your rate can save you thousands.

Mortgage interest rate FAQ

What are today’s mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are rising, but borrowers can almost always find a better deal by shopping around. Connect with a mortgage lender to find out exactly what rate you qualify for.

¹Today's mortgage rates are based on a daily survey of select lending partners of The Mortgage Reports. Interest rates shown here assume a credit score of 740. See our full loan assumptions here.

Selected sources:

• https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
• http://www.freddiemac.com/research/datasets/refinance-stats/index.page