Mortgage and refinance rates today, Aug. 2, 2022

Peter Warden
Peter Warden
The Mortgage Reports Editor
August 2, 2022 - 7 min read

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates fell yet again yesterday. And that for a conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now only just over 5%.

First thing this morning, it was looking as if mortgage rates today might hold steady or close to steady. However, yesterday and last Friday, mortgage rates started out heading higher only to turn around and fall later in the day. When I daily warn that rates sometimes change direction as the hours pass, I mean it.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed
Conventional 30 year fixed 5.13% 5.164% -0.1%
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed 4.583% 4.635% +0.01%
Conventional 20 year fixed
Conventional 20 year fixed 4.991% 5.044% -0.02%
Conventional 10 year fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed 4.728% 4.83% Unchanged
30 year fixed FHA
30 year fixed FHA 5.431% 6.277% -0.03%
15 year fixed FHA
15 year fixed FHA 4.719% 5.198% -0.1%
30 year fixed VA
30 year fixed VA 5.197% 5.423% +0.4%
15 year fixed VA
15 year fixed VA 4.857% 5.223% -0.01%
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

Markets, including the one that largely determines mortgage rates, are in a state of heightened uncertainty. So there’s an increased danger that my predictions and recommendations could turn out to be wrong.

Still, the mood among investors and the tide of economic data do seem to have turned sufficiently for there now to be some hope of mortgage rates falling in a sustained way, at least for a while. Just be alert and remain ready to lock your rate if those swing back.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations are now:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • FLOAT if closing in 30 days
  • FLOAT if closing in 45 days
  • FLOAT if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes inched down to 2.62% from 2.63%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were lower soon after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices rose to $94.58 from $93.95 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices barely moved: up to $1,797 from $1,788 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — edged up to 40 from 39 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to remain steady or close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

There was some good news for mortgage rates in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal (paywall):

Growth at U.S. manufacturing companies was its weakest in two years in July, but inflationary pressures showed signs of cooling as commodity prices eased, according to surveys of purchasing managers released Monday.

Falling orders might not be good news for most. But they’re a sign of a contracting economy. And regular readers know that fears of a recession typically bring lower mortgage rates.

The signs of inflationary pressures cooling were also good for mortgage rates. High inflation tends to push those rates higher, as we saw all too clearly during the first half of this year.

However, it’s too soon to begin popping Champagne corks. High inflation may not be done yet and remains hot in the official data. And there’s a good chance of a resurgence in the fall as a looming winter concentrates the minds of the northern hemisphere on oil and natural gas shortages.

Meanwhile, behind some poor data, the economy isn’t doing as badly as many think. We’ll discover how that’s holding up when July’s employment figures are published on Friday.

All this means that the recovery in mortgage rates over the last few days is fragile. Yes, there are grounds for hope. But there’s very little certainty.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background.

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Rates then bumbled along, moving little for the following eight or nine months. But they began rising noticeably that September. Unfortunately, they’ve been mostly shooting up since the start of 2022, although May and June were kinder months.

Freddie’s Jul. 28 report puts that same weekly average for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.3% (with 0.8 fees and points), down from the previous week’s 5.54%.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.8 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining two quarters of 2022 (Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first two quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. The latest forecasts all appeared around Jul. 21.

ForecasterQ3/22Q4/22Q1/23Q2/23
Fannie Mae5.5%5.4% 5.3%5.1%
Freddie Mac5.5%5.4% 5.2%5.2%
MBA5.2%5.2% 5.0%5.0%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.