What’s driving current mortgage rates?
Today, financial markets are closed in the US to honor the passing of President George Herbert Walker Bush. But the end of yesterday’s trading was enough to push average mortgage rates today a little lower.
Much of the scheduled economic reporting has been moved to tomorrow. Today should be quiet on the financial front.
We will get the so-called Beige Book at 2 PM EST, containing notes from the last Fed meeting. It can indicate what the Fed members are thinking, and possibly show a change in planned rate increases.These rates are averages. Click here to get your personalized rate now. (Apr 24th, 2019)
|Conventional 30 yr Fixed||4.917||4.928||-0.04%|
|Conventional 15 yr Fixed||4.497||4.516||Unchanged|
|Conventional 5 yr ARM||4.375||5.0||-0.02%|
|30 year fixed FHA||4.708||5.718||Unchanged|
|15 year fixed FHA||3.938||4.89||Unchanged|
|5 year ARM FHA||4.0||5.414||Unchanged|
|30 year fixed VA||4.792||4.989||Unchanged|
|15 year fixed VA||4.125||4.441||Unchanged|
|5 year ARM VA||4.125||4.67||Unchanged|
|Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
Financial data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Financial data are mostly suspended today in honor of our 41st president’s death.
- Major stock indexes are unchanged (markets closed, neutral for mortgage rates)
- Gold prices dropped $3 to $1,242 an ounce. (This is slightly bad for mortgage rates. In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower)
- Oil prices remain at $53 a barrel (neutral for rates because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation)
- The yield on ten-year Treasuries remains fell three basis points (3/100th of one percent) to 2.92 percent. That’s good for borrowers because mortgage rates tend to follow Treasuries
- CNNMoney’s Fear & Greed Index dropped 11 points to a reading of 20 (out of a possible 100). That score is near the “extreme fear” range. And the direction, more fearful, is good for rates. “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite
Rate lock recommendation
Mortgage rates are unlikely to move much today because there will be little trading. You may want to float another day if that will get you into a better tier (for instance, drop from a 45-day lock to a 30-day, or a 30-day into a 15-day lock). But if closing soon, current rates are attractive enough to feel good about.
In a rising rate environment, the decision to lock or float becomes complicated. Obviously, if you know rates are rising, you want to lock in as soon as possible. However, the longer your lock, the higher your upfront costs. If you are weeks away from closing on your mortgage, that’s something to consider. On the flip side, if a higher rate would wipe out your mortgage approval, you’ll probably want to lock in even if it costs more.
If you’re still floating, stay in close contact with your lender, and keep an eye on markets. I recommend:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- FLOAT if closing in 30 days
- FLOAT if closing in 45 days
- FLOAT if closing in 60 days
This week offers fewer reports, but Tuesday and Thursday’s consumer-related data are important. Stay in contact with your lender if you’re still floating a rate.
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing Index (moderate importance, predicted 58.2)
- Tuesday: Nothing
- Wednesday: Beige Book (moderate importance)
- Thursday: October Factory Orders (moderate importance, predicted -.2 percent),
- ADP Employment (moderate importance, ISM Non-manufacturing Index (moderate importance, predicted 59.8),
- Friday: November Employment Situation Report (high importance, 3.7 percent unemployment predicted), November Consumer Sentiment Index (moderate importance)
What causes rates to rise and fall?
Mortgage interest rates depend on a great deal on the expectations of investors. Good economic news tends to be bad for interest rates because an active economy raises concerns about inflation. Inflation causes fixed-income investments like bonds to lose value, and that causes their yields (another way of saying interest rates) to increase.
For example, suppose that two years ago, you bought a $1,000 bond paying five percent interest ($50) each year. (This is called its “coupon rate.”) That’s a pretty good rate today, so lots of investors want to buy it from you. You sell your $1,000 bond for $1,200.
When rates fall
The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest that you were getting. However, because he paid more for the bond, his interest rate is now five percent.
- Your interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,000 = 5.0%
- Your buyer’s interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,200 = 4.2%
The buyer gets an interest rate, or yield, of only 4.2 percent. And that’s why, when demand for bonds increases and bond prices go up, interest rates go down.
When rates rise
However, when the economy heats up, the potential for inflation makes bonds less appealing. With fewer people wanting to buy bonds, their prices decrease, and then interest rates go up.
Imagine that you have your $1,000 bond, but you can’t sell it for $1,000 because unemployment has dropped and stock prices are soaring. You end up getting $700. The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest, but the yield looks like this:
- $50 annual interest / $700 = 7.1%
The buyer’s interest rate is now slightly more than seven percent. Interest rates and yields are not mysterious. You calculate them with simple math.Verify your new rate (Apr 24th, 2019)
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.