What’s driving current mortgage rates?
Most mortgage rates today are little changed, gut government-backed 30-year rates did drop nicely.
This morning, the University of Michigan reported that its Consumer Sentiment Index rose 1.3 points to 99.3, blowing away analysts’ expectations. Consumer spending drives 2/3 of the US economy, so increased spending in that arena tends to drive up rates.
However, MarketWatch says the report did not stem the tide of pessimism in the stock market — attributed to Trump’s tariffs and the new trade war.Rates Below Are Averages. Get Your Personalized Rates Here. (Nov 19th, 2018)
|Conventional 30 yr Fixed||4.75||4.761||Unchanged|
|Conventional 15 yr Fixed||4.333||4.353||Unchanged|
|Conventional 5 yr ARM||4.313||4.753||Unchanged|
|30 year fixed FHA||4.458||5.465||-0.04%|
|15 year fixed FHA||3.75||4.701||Unchanged|
|5 year ARM FHA||4.188||5.255||Unchanged|
|30 year fixed VA||4.542||4.736||-0.08%|
|15 year fixed VA||3.813||4.126||Unchanged|
|5 year ARM VA||4.313||4.492||Unchanged|
Financial data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Today’s data are mostly good for mortgage rates.
- Major stock indexes are down significantly (good for mortgage rates)
- Gold prices fell $23 to $1,284 an ounce. (That is bad for mortgage rates. In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower)
- Oil prices fell $2 to $65 a barrel (that’s very good for rates because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation.)
- The yield on ten-year Treasuries fell 6 basis points (5/100th of 1 percent) to 2.90 percent. That is excellent news for mortgage rates because mortgage rates tend to follow Treasuries.
- CNNMoney’s Fear & Greed Index fell 7 points to 58 (out of a possible 100). That is in a more fearful direction, out of “freed” and into “neutral.” This is in a less “greedy” and into a more “fearful” direction. “Fearful” investors generally push bond prices up (and interest rates down) as they leave the stock market and move into bonds, while “greedy” investors do the opposite.
Next week brings less-importing reporting. Borrowers and lenders will have to consider indications from global political news and White House tweets. Only reports that vary significantly from expectations will likely affect rates.
- Monday: NAHB Home Builders Index for June (previous: 70)
- Tuesday: Housing Starts for May (previous: 1.287 m)
- Wednesday: Existing Home Sales for May (previous: 5.46 m)
- Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims (previous: 218,000 claims)
- Friday: nothing
Rate lock recommendation
Rates are trending higher over the long-term, but we have been seeing some dips. Today’s economic indicators point to lower rates — perhaps later today or Monday. I personally would lock today, but risk-takers might be rewarded for waiting a day or two.
In general, pricing for a 30-day lock is the standard most lenders will (should) quote you. The 15-day option should get you a discount, and locks over 30 days usually cost more. If you can get a better rate (say, a .125 percent lower rate) by waiting a couple of days to get a 15-day lock instead of a 30, it’s probably safe to consider.
In a rising rate environment, the decision to lock or float becomes complicated. Obviously, if you know rates are rising, you want to lock in as soon as possible. However, the longer you lock, the higher your upfront costs. If you are weeks away from closing on your mortgage, that’s something to consider. On the flip side, if a higher rate would wipe out your mortgage approval, you’ll probably want to lock in even if it costs more.
If you’re still floating, stay in close contact with your lender, and keep an eye on markets.
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- LOCK if closing in 30 days
- LOCK if closing in 45 days
- LOCK if closing in 60 days
Video: More about mortgage rates
What causes rates to rise and fall?
Mortgage interest rates depend on a great deal on the expectations of investors. Good economic news tends to be bad for interest rates because an active economy raises concerns about inflation. Inflation causes fixed-income investments like bonds to lose value, and that causes their yields (another way of saying interest rates) to increase.
For example, suppose that two years ago, you bought a $1,000 bond paying five percent interest ($50) each year. (This is called its “coupon rate.”) That’s a pretty good rate today, so lots of investors want to buy it from you. You sell your $1,000 bond for $1,200.
When rates fall
The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest that you were getting. However, because he paid more for the bond, his interest rate is now five percent.
- Your interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,000 = 5.0%
- Your buyer’s interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,200 = 4.2%
The buyer gets an interest rate, or yield, of only 4.2 percent. And that’s why, when demand for bonds increases and bond prices go up, interest rates go down.
When rates rise
However, when the economy heats up, the potential for inflation makes bonds less appealing. With fewer people wanting to buy bonds, their prices decrease, and then interest rates go up.
Imagine that you have your $1,000 bond, but you can’t sell it for $1,000 because unemployment has dropped and stock prices are soaring. You end up getting $700. The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest, but the yield looks like this:
- $50 annual interest / $700 = 7.1%
The buyer’s interest rate is now slightly more than seven percent. Interest rates and yields are not mysterious. You calculate them with simple math.Verify your new rate (Nov 19th, 2018)