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Mortgage rates today, June 11, 2018, plus lock recommendations

Gina Pogol
Gina PogolThe Mortgage Reports Contributor

What’s driving current mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates today are up quite sharply. The Treasury is holding two bond options today, which should tell us the direction of rates this week. High demand and prices for bonds are good for rates, but low prices inflate interest rates.

The only report we got this morning was April Factory Orders, which analysts expected to decline by .5 percent. They declined by .8 percent, which is not positive for the economy, and that would be good for rates. But it’s not a highly-important report.

Rates Below Are Averages. Get Your Personalized Rates Here. (Oct 15th, 2018)
Program Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 yr Fixed 4.792 4.803 +0.04%
Conventional 15 yr Fixed 4.375 4.394 +0.04%
Conventional 5 yr ARM 4.313 4.721 Unchanged
30 year fixed FHA 4.542 5.549 +0.04%
15 year fixed FHA 3.75 4.701 Unchanged
5 year ARM FHA 4.188 5.17 +0.1%
30 year fixed VA 4.625 4.82 Unchanged
15 year fixed VA 3.875 4.189 +0.06%
5 year ARM VA 4.25 4.378 Unchanged

Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Financial data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Today’s data are trending toward higher mortgage rates.

  • Major stock indexes opened flat (neutral for mortgage rates)
  • Gold prices increased $2 to,304 an ounce. (That is slightly good for mortgage rates. In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower)
  • Oil prices remained at $66 a barrel (that’s neutral for rates because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation. This drop continues a trend started late last week and is very good news for mortgage rates)
  • The yield on ten-year Treasuries dropped one basis point (1/100th of 1  percent) to 2.97 percent. That is good for mortgage rates because mortgage rates tend to follow Treasuries.
  • CNNMoney’s Fear & Greed Index rose 5 points points to 65 (out of a possible 100). That means we’re firmly in the “greedy” range. And moving into a greedier state is usually bad for rates. “Fearful” investors generally push bond prices up (and interest rates down) as they leave the stock market and move into bonds, while “greedy” investors do the opposite.
Verify your new rate (Oct 15th, 2018)

This week

This week doesn’t bring a lot of significant data. Borrowers and lenders will have to look for interest rate clues in global political news and White House tweets. Only reports that vary significantly from expectations will likely affect rates.

  • Monday: April Factory Orders (forecast: -.6 percent)
  • Tuesday: ISM Non-manufacturing Index for May (expected: increase from 56.4 to 58)
  • Wednesday: 1st Quarter Productivity (expected: .6 percent increase) and 1st Quarter Labor Cost (predicted: 2.9 percent increase)
  • Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims (predicted: 225,000)
  • Friday: Nothing

Rate lock recommendation

Rates are trending higher despite some occasional dips. Overall, it’s better to take a defensive position when locking rather than floating and hoping — unless you are trying to refinance and have a target rate you need to hit to make it worthwhile. If rates are increasing and you are closing soon, nail down something good while you can get it.

In general, pricing for a 30-day lock is the standard most lenders will (should) quote you. The 15-day option should get you a discount, and locks over 30 days usually cost more. If you can get a better rate (say, a .125 percent lower rate) by waiting a couple of days to get a 15-day lock instead of a 30, it’s probably safe to consider.

In a rising rate environment, the decision to lock or float becomes complicated. Obviously, if you know rates are rising, you want to lock in as soon as possible. However, the longer you lock, the higher your upfront costs. If you are weeks away from closing on your mortgage, that’s something to consider. On the flip side, if a higher rate would wipe out your mortgage approval, you’ll probably want to lock in even if it costs more.

If you’re still floating, stay in close contact with your lender, and keep an eye on markets.

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days
Lock in your rate. Start here. (Oct 15th, 2018)

Video: More about mortgage rates

What causes rates to rise and fall?

Mortgage interest rates depend on a great deal on the expectations of investors. Good economic news tends to be bad for interest rates because an active economy raises concerns about inflation. Inflation causes fixed-income investments like bonds to lose value, and that causes their yields (another way of saying interest rates) to increase.

For example, suppose that two years ago, you bought a $1,000 bond paying five percent interest ($50) each year. (This is called its “coupon rate.”) That’s a pretty good rate today, so lots of investors want to buy it from you. You sell your $1,000 bond for $1,200.

When rates fall

The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest that you were getting. However, because he paid more for the bond, his interest rate is now five percent.

  • Your interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,000 = 5.0%
  • Your buyer’s interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,200 = 4.2%

The buyer gets an interest rate, or yield, of only 4.2 percent. And that’s why, when demand for bonds increases and bond prices go up, interest rates go down.

When rates rise

However, when the economy heats up, the potential for inflation makes bonds less appealing. With fewer people wanting to buy bonds, their prices decrease, and then interest rates go up.

Imagine that you have your $1,000 bond, but you can’t sell it for $1,000 because unemployment has dropped and stock prices are soaring. You end up getting $700. The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest, but the yield looks like this:

  • $50 annual interest / $700 = 7.1%

The buyer’s interest rate is now slightly more than seven percent. Interest rates and yields are not mysterious. You calculate them with simple math.

Verify your new rate (Oct 15th, 2018)