What’s driving current mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates today reacted to the most important data, the monthly Employment Situation report for December. Analysts expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1 percent, and for the economy to have added 190,000 jobs. While the rate remained unchanged, job growth was disappointing on two fronts: The labor market grew by just 248,000 jobs, and previous months’ new jobs got downward revisions.
So the economy turned out to be a little less robust than economists had expected, and that removes some fear of inflation. Bond yields and interest rates typically fall when this happens.Verify your new rate (Dec 13th, 2018)
Mortgage rates today
|Conventional 30 yr Fixed||4.038||4.049||-0.15%|
|Conventional 15 yr Fixed||3.58||3.599||Unchanged|
|Conventional 5 yr ARM||3.75||3.962||Unchanged|
|30 year fixed FHA||3.833||4.834||-0.04%|
|15 year fixed FHA||3.25||4.198||Unchanged|
|5 year ARM FHA||3.563||4.468||-0.02%|
|30 year fixed VA||3.875||4.061||Unchanged|
|15 year fixed VA||3.375||3.685||-0.06%|
|5 year ARM VA||3.813||3.739||Unchanged|
(Note that FHA APRs include required mortgage insurance.)
Financial data that affect today’s mortgage rates
While the Employment report is the big driver of interest rates today, other data also have their influence. Today’s indicators were mixed, and mostly appear to have offset each other.
- Major stock indexes opened higher (bad for mortgage rates)
- Gold prices rose $3 an ounce to $1,317. (That is good for mortgage rates. In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower).
- Oil fell $1 a barrel to $61 (that’s good for rates because higher energy prices play a large role in creating inflation — but $61 is still pretty high in terms of recent history.)
- The yield on ten-year Treasuries remained stable at 2.48 percent (neutral for interest rates, because mortgage rates tend to follow Treasuries).
- CNNMoney’s Fear & Greed Index rose for the fourth straight day — this time by 3 points to 74, solidly into the “greed” level.That’s a bad trend for rates because in this case, greed is NOT good. “Fearful” investors push rates down as they leave the stock market and move into bond points s, while “greedy” investors do the opposite. That causes rates to rise.
Mortgage rates today remain very favorable for anyone considering homeownership. Residential financing is still affordable.
Monday brings no scheduled economic reporting. We will look to the stock market, global economic news, and political insanity to predict mortgage rate movements. However, it’s typical for rates to rise on Friday and fall on Monday if nothing else occurs to move them. That’s just the way lenders protect themselves from events that might occur while they are closed for business.
Rate lock recommendation
In general, 30-day is the standard price most lenders will (should) quote you. The 15-day option should get you a discount, and locks over 30 days usually cost more. Because rates have been so stable, you may get away with waiting an extra day or two to get a better rate — for instance, if your closing is 16 days out, you might want to wait a day and get a cheaper 15-day lock instead of a 30-day lock.
That said, if you need to hit a certain rate to qualify or make a refinance work, and you can get that rate today, I recommend grabbing it. Things could change massively tomorrow, depending on the employment figures.
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- FLOAT if closing in 30 days
- FLOAT if closing in 45 days
- FLOAT if closing in 60 days
Video: More about mortgage rates
What causes rates to rise and fall?
Mortgage interest rates depend on a great deal on the expectations of investors. Good economic news tends to be bad for interest rates, because an active economy raises concerns about inflation. Inflation causes fixed-income investments like bonds to lose value, and that causes their yields (another way of saying interest rates) to increase.
For example, suppose that two years ago, you bought a $1,000 bond paying five percent interest ($50) each year. (This is called its “coupon rate.”) That’s a pretty good rate today, so lots of investors want to buy it from you. You sell your $1,000 bond for $1,200.
When rates fall
The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest that you were getting. However, because he paid more for the bond, his interest rate is not five percent.
- Your interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,000 = 5.0%
- Your buyer’s interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,200 = 4.2%
The buyer gets an interest rate, or yield, of only 4.2 percent. And that’s why, when demand for bonds increases and bond prices go up, interest rates go down.
When rates rise
However, when the economy heats up, the potential for inflation makes bonds less appealing. With fewer people wanting to buy bonds, their prices decrease, and then interest rates go up.
Imagine that you have your $1,000 bond, but you can’t sell it for $1,000, because unemployment has dropped and stock prices are soaring. You end up getting $700. The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest, but the yield looks like this:
- $50 annual interest / $700 = 7.1%
The buyer’s interest rate is now slightly more than seven percent. Interest rates and yields are not mysterious. You calculate them with simple math.Verify your new rate (Dec 13th, 2018)