Posted 12/21/2017

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Mortgage rates today, December 21, plus lock recommendations

mortgage rates today, today's mortgage rates

Gina Pogol

The Mortgage Reports Contributor

What's driving current mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates today have blasted out of their doldrums, and if you're floating an interest rate, this is not a good thing. After weeks of almost no movement, signs of potential increases showed up, and we noted them here,

And now we have two straight days of mortgage increases.

Mich of this can be attributed to the likelihood of a new US tax plan, which can have two effects. First, it puts more money in the hands of taxpayers (in the short-term), and they are likely to spend it and heat up the economy.(These benefits go away after the next election.)

But the non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation also asserts that this bill will add up to $1.5 trillion to the national debt. More debt and more debt service could likely lead to higher interest rates.

Verify your new rate (Apr 26th, 2018)

Mortgage rates today

Program Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 yr Fixed 4.122 4.133 +0.04%
Conventional 15 yr Fixed 3.667 3.685 +0.04%
Conventional 5 yr ARM 3.688 3.941 Unchanged
30 year fixed FHA 3.917 4.918 +0.08%
15 year fixed FHA 3.25 4.198 Unchanged
5 year ARM FHA 3.563 4.468 Unchanged
30 year fixed VA 3.958 4.146 +0.13%
15 year fixed VA 3.438 3.748 Unchanged
5 year ARM VA 3.625 3.671 Unchanged

Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Financial data that affect today's mortgage rates

Most indicators are neutral-to-bad for rates. Except that today's Weekly Jobless Claims came in 15,000 higher than the expected 230,000. That's bad for employment and good for mortgage rates, but it's only a weekly report, so it gets less respect than it otherwise would.

  • Major stock indexes opened higher( bad for mortgage rates)
  • Gold prices remained neutral at $1,268. (That is neutral for mortgage rates. In general, it's better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower).
  • Oil remained at $58 a barrel (neutral for mortgage interest rates. Higher energy prices play a large role in creating inflation.)
  • The yield on ten-year Treasuries increased another basis point (1/100ths of 1 percent) to 2.50 percent! (bad for rates, because mortgage rates tend to follow Treasuries and this is a huge movement).
  • CNNMoney’s Fear & Greed Index fell 2 points to 71, still well into "greedy" territory but at least the movement is in the right direction. This is one case in which greed isn't good. "Fearful" investors push rates down as they leave the stock market and move into bonds, while "greedy" investors do the opposite. That causes rates to rise.

Mortgage rates today remain very favorable for anyone considering homeownership. Residential financing is still affordable.

This Week

  • Friday is the big day -- the one to pay serious attention to if you're floating a rate -- releases include Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income, Consumer Spending, Inflation, New Home Sales, Consumer Spending and Consumer Sentiment -- all potential indicators of inflation (or lack of)

Rate lock recommendation

In general, 30-day is the standard price most lenders will (should) quote you. The 15-day option should get you a discount, and locks over 30 days usually cost more.

The Ten-Year Treasury Index hitting 2.50 percent is concerning -- a psychological wall that, if broken, could send rates shooting up. I'd lock if I had anything fixed closing soon.

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • FLOAT if closing in 45 days
  • FLOAT if closing in 60 days

Video: More about mortgage rates

What causes rates to rise and fall?

Mortgage interest rates depend on a great deal on the expectations of investors. Good economic news tends to be bad for interest rates, because an active economy raises concerns about inflation. Inflation causes fixed-income investments like bonds to lose value, and that causes their yields (another way of saying interest rates) to increase.

For example, suppose that two years ago, you bought a $1,000 bond paying five percent interest ($50) each year. (This is called its “coupon rate.") That’s a pretty good rate today, so lots of investors want to buy it from you. You sell your $1,000 bond for $1,200.

When rates fall

The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest that you were getting. However, because he paid more for the bond, his interest rate is not five percent.

  • Your interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,000 = 5.0%
  • Your buyer’s interest rate: $50 annual interest / $1,200 = 4.2%

The buyer gets an interest rate, or yield, of only 4.2 percent. And that’s why, when demand for bonds increases and bond prices go up, interest rates go down.

When rates rise

However, when the economy heats up, the potential for inflation makes bonds less appealing. With fewer people wanting to buy bonds, their prices decrease, and then interest rates go up.

Imagine that you have your $1,000 bond, but you can't sell it for $1,000, because unemployment has dropped and stock prices are soaring. You end up getting $700. The buyer gets the same $50 a year in interest, but the yield looks like this:

  • $50 annual interest / $700 = 7.1%

The buyer’s interest rate is now slightly more than seven percent. Interest rates and yields are not mysterious. You calculate them with simple math.

Verify your new rate (Apr 26th, 2018)

Gina Pogol

The Mortgage Reports Contributor

Gina Pogol writes about personal finance, credit, mortgages and real estate. She loves helping consumers understand complex and intimidating topics. She can be reached on Twitter at @GinaPogol.

The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent, or affiliates.

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2018 Conforming, FHA, & VA Loan Limits

Mortgage loan limits for every U.S. county, as published by Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)