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Act Quickly On That Mortgage Quote — Mortgage Rates Are Changing Every 2 Hours, 58 Minutes

Posted on July 1, 2009
Filed under Rate Sheets
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The number of mortgage rate sheets per day for the period of May-June 2009

A "rate sheet" is a mortgage lender's official pricing menu and for the first time since November 2008 -- a month marked by financial market hysteria -- mortgage lenders issued 100 separate rate sheets over the last 2-month period.

Accounting for weekends and holidays, that's 2.38 rate sheets per day on average, or roughly 0.38 more than the number of meatball sandwiches Johnny Utah is asked to buy for Angelo. Mortgage rate volatility is back in a big way, folks.

To put the pace of change in perspective, consider this:

  • In the last 60 days, lenders issued 4 or more rates sheets in a day once per week
  • In the last 1 year, lenders issued 4 or more rates sheets in a day once per month

The last 2 months have been a mortgage rate whirlwind.  For homeowners and home buyers in places like Cincinnati and Chicago, it's been difficult to zero in on mortgage rates and lock them in.  With rates are "expiring" every 2 hours 57 minutes, it's enough to make a person want to go back in time to, say, February and March.

The good news here, though, is that the recent volatility may be a signal that mortgage rate collusion among Big Bank Lenders is ending.

There's no evidence to support a claim like this, but for a very long while, rates trended tightly among the biggest players with very little difference in rates or points. Then, starting about 10 days ago, pricing started to open up a bit; to separate from bank to bank.

Heading into July 2009, mortgage rates are expiring every 2 hours 58 minutes on averageThe volatility we've seen lately may really just be the return of competitive pricing to the mortgage space.  This idea is backed by the VIX -- otherwise known the "Fear Index".  The VIX is currently at its lowest levels since the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Or, deferring to Occam's Razor, mortgage rates may be jumpy because there's still a lot of uncertainty about the U.S. economy.

Either way, life is tough for home buyers and people wanting to refinance.

As a guy who sees rates change all the time and without much notice, I'll say this: unless you're prepared to accept a higher rate that what you've just been quoted, you may not want to gamble on getting a lower one.  An eighth-of-a-percent can add up over time but for some reason, it seems to add up a lot faster when you're wasting money instead of saving it.

If you don't have the means to watch mortgage rate changes in real-time, consider following me on Twitter.

Now, if you've never been on Twitter, it's seriously simple.  When you go to follow me, Twitter will ask you to register for a free account.  Do it.  Then, whenever you log back into Twitter, you'll see my last series of updates.  It will give you a feel for whether rates are improving or worsening.


Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

Tags: Back to the Future, Occam's Razor, Point Break, Rate Sheets, VIX

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Mortgage Rate Quote “Shelf Life” Moves To 5 Hours, 15 Minutes

Posted on March 2, 2009
Filed under Rate Sheets
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Mortgage rate change volatility for January and February 2009

At least 3 days per week, data from January and February 2009 shows, mortgage rates changed at least twice daily. 

Lest you think that's a rapid rate of change, scroll down the list and you'll recognize that last month came courtesy of the The Slowskys. There's been a marked reduction in mortgage rate volatility lately.

Mortgage rates changed every 5 hours, 15 minutes in February 2009In January, mortgage rates changed every 3 hours 28 minutes, on average. In February, it jumped to 5 hours, 15 minutes.  If you ask me, it's a little fishy.

Here's why.

Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds and bond trades -- like stock trades-- are based in a fundamental and technical analysis of the economy. This can include tangible evidence like data or government policy, but very often includes intangible factors, too, such as a trader's emotional response to market conditions.

We can't ignore the impact of these impossible-to-measure market influences which we often refer to as "gut feel" or "greed".  And traders know it.  It's the reason there's such a thing called the VIX Index, a living, breathing measurement of market volatility.  The VIX is set up in such a way that it's an actual numerical representation of the market uncertainty.

Therefore, we would expect that if mortgage rates are calming, the VIX would be calming, too.  This chart says otherwise.  The "Fear Index" is no lower today than it was in October and, back then, mortgage rates were far more volatile.

So, if mortgage rates aren't changing as quickly as the VIX Index would indicate, it may mean that lenders have already priced their rate sheets up and out of the market. They may do this for profit reasons, but at least one lender went on record as saying that it's raised interest rates to slow the flow of new business.

Ed: I wish I could find that story at http://www.housingwire.com. If you have the link, send it on.

In other words, mortgage rates appear to be padded right now because lenders are understaffed.  If you're shopping for a mortgage, that extra cushion serves as a tax on you and it's nearly universal from lender-to-lender.  The good news, though, is that because the padding exists, mortgage rates stay within a tight range

Regardless, there's still good reason to get your rate locked in.  9 of them, really. 

If you're shopping for a mortgage right now, considering how many hundreds of thousands of people are losing their jobs without notice and how quickly some homes are losing value.  You're likely best-served by locking in the first fiscally-appropriate, low-rate mortgage that comes your way. Sure, rates may improve if you wait, but there's a lot of things that can go wrong while you're standing by.

Remember, you can always refinance again later if conditions warrant it.

As quickly as markets change, you can't possibly keep up on your own. Consider following me on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/mortgagereports.  I tend to post market updates a few times daily and, of course, anytime you want a rate quote, just call or email me.  I lend in all 50 states.


Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

Tags: Fishheads, Rate Sheets, The Slowskys, VIX

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