Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may have your answers.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or foreign national mortgages. For rate quotes, .

The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 23% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 46% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 31% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I predict that rates will decrease over the next 30 days. My prediction may not be appropriate for your individual situation, however, and in that case, you definitely won't want to dance like a robot.

Here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Government intervention drops mortgage rates."

Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee adjourned from a scheduled 2-day meeting and didn't do 3 things:

1. It didn't raise or lower the Fed Funds Rate
2. It didn't increase or decrease its commitment to the mortgage bond market
3. It didn't change its meh forecast for the U.S. economy

The post-meeting press release was plain, basic, and boring -- just 3 paragraphs recapping the economy, its threats and its outlook.  The Fed said nothing new and stayed on message.

In other words, it was everything a rate shopper could hope for.

See, before the FOMC meeting, markets pretty much knew the Fed wouldn't change the Fed Funds Rate.  What they didn't know, however, was whether Bernanke & Co would restate their outlook on the economy or introduce new tools meant to manage markets.

Everyone was a little on edge about it, actually.

With rising mortgage rates threatening the housing market's recovery and the employment sector showing signs of life, there was this pervasive nervousness on Wall Street pre-FOMC that the Fed would make a bold statement to keep the economy on track. This would have been awful for mortgage rates.  More Fed action would have  stoked inflation fears and inflation is a mortgage rate killer.

But, because the Fed went the boring route, mortgage rates didn't move yesterday and remain in the same range they've been in all week.

That said, rates may be resting higher than where the Federal Reserve wants them to be.

It's been said a few times that sub-5 percent mortgage rates are optimal for the housing markets.  Couple that with the  Federal Reserve's remaining hundreds of billions of dollars against its $1.25 trillion commitment to mortgage bonds and it's a small step to see what the Fed might do if rates don't fall by natural causes.

All the Federal Reserve has to do is accelerate the pace of its purchases, creating a near-term demand for mortgage bonds that causes rates to fall.

And the higher that mortgage rates get, the more likely we'll see government-led action to being them back down and when that happens, we'll get an immediate dip in rates that won't last long.

Generally, markets over-react when politicos mess with economics and, in this case, the emotion will bring rates lower than they'd naturally fall.  The corresponding emotional correction comes shortly thereafter -- usually in 36 hours or fewer.

In fact, we've seen this pattern 6 times  in the past 12 months.  It will happen again.

Therefore, if you're not already working with a loan officer and know you'll need a new mortgage soon, you may want to participate in my Rate Watch program.  You can call or and I'll take a full loan application to keep on file and queued up.   You'll also pick a "target rate".   Then, when your target rate is available in the open market, I'll just submit your rate lock for you and it's off to the races.

You won't have to stress about watching mortgage rates each day to know when it's time to lock.  The advance preparation is totally worth it.  Plan ahead.

Or, if you prefer watching rates from the sidelines, consider adding me to your Twitter timeline at http://twitter.com/mortgagereports. I post several mortgage updates each day.

I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey is now available.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages.  It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or foreign national mortgages.  For rate quotes, .

The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 55% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 9% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 36% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I am predicting that rates will remain unchanged over the next 30 days. My prediction may not be appropriate for your individual situation and it may be wrong, too.

Here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Market forces toward higher rates are countered by open-market buying from the Fed."

We've covered this topic a few times so in case you're bored, here's a fresh take. 

When a person invests in mortgage bonds, what's he buying a stream of payments, made at regular intervals, over some period of time.  The absolute value of those payments never change -- it's always the same dollar amount.  The relative value, however, can change.  And does. 

If, over time, the U.S. dollar increases in value relative to currencies worldwide, suddenly those mortgage bond repayments are worth more; again, relative to other currencies worldwide.  The reverse is true, too.  If the dollars loses value, those repayments are worth less relative.

This dynamic is different than what drives stock prices.  Stock prices, in most cases, are tied to large corporations that do business in multiple currencies.  Each company's relative exposure to the U.S. dollar, therefore, while present, is smaller than a bond-owning individual's exposure to the U.S. dollar.

So, mortgage bond investors own the rights to mortgage bond payments over time and the value of those payment is tightly tied to the value of the U.S. dollar.  And this is where the inherent conflict in the government's plan to drive down mortgage rates comes in.  With each new stimulus, the government is forced to -- literally -- print more money, thereby making the plan more expensive to execute.

More simply:

• The government drives down mortgage rates by buying mortgage-backed bonds
• The government "makes" the money it need to buy these bonds
• In making money, the government renders the bonds less attractive to investors
• Investors react by selling bonds, driving up mortgage rates

Lather, rise, repeat. 

It's a vicious cycle that the Fed already recognized and fingered; yesterday's press release noted that more funds may be allocated for buying mortgage-backed securities.  It's a losing battle, though, because in the battle of wills, the markets will always beat the government. 

For now, the feds are just buying time until the economy comes around.

Mortgage rates remain near their lowest levels of the last 6 weeks. If you haven't talked to your loan officer about a refinance, or if you're shopping for a home loan, you find better terms today than at some point even next week.

In the meanwhile, I post mid-day mortgage rate updates on my Twitter feed along with running commentary. Follow me at http://www.twitter.com/mortgagereports and join the conversation anytime.