Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate survey and this week's results may help you time a rate lock.

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages nor is the survey specific to South Carolina or Virginia mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 39% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 22% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 39% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent with D'Andre Cole than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"As safe haven buying recedes, mortgage rates advance."

I hope you took advantage of the low rates last week because it'll be the last time we go sub-5 percent maybe ever.

Last Week, Why Did Rates Fall So Much?

Recent gains in the mortgage market are a direct result of something called "safe haven buying". It's market jargon and it's used to describe a trading pattern that tends to emerge during times of uncertainty.

Safe haven buying is characterized by large numbers of investors moving money away from risky investments and toward safer ones.  It's a logical response to surprise events.

Rather than doubling down on their bets in play, traders take their chips off the risk table until the future gets less murky and that's a big reason of why rates fell last week. Greece has yet to show it can meet its debt obligations and there's concern that a default could bring down the broader European Union.

As far as investor risks go, this is a big one.

Why You Should Count On A Turnaround

This past Tuesday, Greece held a successful debt auction. Investors clamored for short-term securities as leaders in the EU pledged support to the nation.

Demand outweighed supply by a multiple of 7.67.  That's huge.  It shows that markets are confident in Greece's ability to recover and it's no coincidence that Tuesday marked the week's low point for U.S. mortgage rates.

Investors are unwinding their safe haven trades, dumping excess mortgage bonds into the open market, pressuring mortgage rates to move higher.

Get ahead of the rate changes because MRV -- Mortgage Rate Velocity -- is as high as its been in a year.

Rate hikes are coming this week and they're going to hit hard.

Float or Lock? Get Your Strategy In Place

Mortgage markets are no longer favorable. Safe haven patterns have receded and there's little to keep mortgage rates low.  The economy continues to show incremental improvement and the stock market is racing past 11,000.

Don't get caught watching the paint dry.

You may have gotten off easy by floating your rate up until now, but it's time to move into locking position.  If you haven't given a loan application to your loan officer, do it ASAP. The longer you wait, the more this next loan is going to cost you.

However, being "alert" is only one part of being ready. You must also have a loan application on file with your lender.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process.  To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or . And be sure to give applications to other loan officers, too.  Don't worry -- your credit score won't be damaged if you do it the right way.

Then, once you're done shopping, you can lock on the spot without fear of rates going nuts on you. MRV is extremely high right now. Change happens in a flash.

Mortgage rates are low today, but maybe not for you, specifically.

If you've ever wondered why loan officers can't give you the best "advertised rate", it's not because of a bait-and-switch scheme or something worse.  Most likely, you're being quoted higher mortgage rates because of a government mandate called Loan-Level Pricing Adjustments.

Defining Loan-Level Pricing Adjustment

LLPAs are changes in loan costs based on your personal risk traits.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac first introduced loan-level pricing adjustments in April 2008 and they've been a cause of consternation among conventional borrowers since.

Loan-level pricing adjustments tend to surprise people because it's not exactly a Prime Time News-type story; the first time most people hear about LLPAs is at the point of application. A loan-level pricing adjustment can raise an applicant's mortgage rate by a full percentage point or more.

How Are LLPAs Determined

To get deep on LLPAs how they work, let's first talk about auto insurance.

For all of us, there is some base insurance rate for which we all qualify.  It's based on our age, our credit and the ZIP code in which we park the car.  From there, however, adjustments are made -- drive a riskier car, pay a higher premium.  Have a history of accidents, pay a higher premium. Things like that.

The same goes for mortgage loans -- the more the risk, the higher the rate. This is LLPA, defined.

A few of the risk factors that can change a person's mortgage rate include:

• Living in a condo with less than 25% equity in the home
• Having a credit score of less than 740
• Living in a 2-unit, 3-unit or 4-unit home
• Using a home as an investment property
• Doing a "cash out" refinance with less than 40% equity in the home
• Having a second mortgage to subordinate

Each of these traits -- historically -- increases the likelihood of your default.    Therefore, to hedge, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac charge one-time, pre-set fees to offset a potential future loss.

LLPAs Are Not Discretionary Fees

LLPAs are not discretionary fees; sources of profit or padding.  Nor are they junk fees.  LLPAs are mandatory costs triggered by specific loan characteristics.  There's no flexibility, either.  If you trigger the guidelines, you pay the fees.

The Fannie Mae Loan-Level Pricing Adjustment chart is as thorough as it is punitive. At least borrowers get to choose how they pay them:

1. LLPAs can be paid as a traditional "closing cost", due at closing.
2. LLPAs can be built into an interest rate. In general, interest rates increase 0.250% for each 1 percent of loan-level pricing adjustment.

It doesn't take much to trigger the risk-based pricing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; a lot of conforming mortgage applicants do it.

What To Do If You Trigger LLPA

If you've triggered the LLPA chart and want to know your options, call or . Depending on your loan traits, there may be non-government programs that can give the same great rates as Fannie and Freddie, but without the risk fees.

Be sure to ask me about it.  I answer all my own emails and would be happy to help you however I can.

Maybe now we can say that housing has bottomed?

After 3 years of disastrous data, 19 of the 20 markets tracked by Case-Shiller improved last month -- the 5th straight month of strong data and the index's strongest showing in 3-plus years.

This is definitely something for the news van.

That said, the Case-Shiller Index remains an imperfect gauge:

1. It's limited to 20 U.S. cities, representing just 9% of the U.S. population.
2. It's on a 2-month lag, reflective of how housing was, not how it is
3. It ignore locality, grouping city neighborhoods into one big lump.

Despite its flaws, though, the Case-Shiller Index remains relevant to an improving economy.

When housing cracks first started formed in 2005 and 2006, Wall Street doubled down its bets despite Case-Shiller calling for an all-out catastrophe of biblical proportions.  Turns out, both sides were wrong, but Case-Shiller earned a ton of street cred from its call.

Today, the Case-Shiller Index is the de facto barometer for home values nationwide.

Getting back to June data, because Case-Shiller says home prices are -- in its own words -- "on an upswing", we can assume it means good things for the housing market, in general.

For home buyers, however, the news may not be so welcome.  The combination of a soon-to-expire $8,000 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit and a rebounding housing market means that competition for properties should increase, creating bidding wars and higher home prices.

If you're on the fence about buying a home or wondering if the time is right, according to Case-Shiller, the "right time" may have been 2 months ago.  With prices on the upswing, homes may only get more expensive.

For a pre-approval letter, and I'll get you started.

With evidence that Swine Flu ran for the border this past weekend, mortgage rates are improving.  Confirmed cases of H1N1 Swine Flu have spread to 5 continents and financial contagion has put markets in Safe Haven mode.

"Safe Haven buying" is a market jargon.  It describes a common trading pattern during that emerges during times of uncertainty. 

Safe Haven buying is characterized by large numbers of investors moving money away from risky investments and toward safer ones.  It's a logical response to surprise events. 

Rather than doubling down on bets in play, traders prefer to play it safe by taking their chips off the risk table until the future becomes more clear.  Hence the jargon-like term, "Safe Haven buying".

In some circle, Safe Haven buying is better known as a "Flight to Quality", a term indicative of the asset types that typically benefit in times of uncertainty.  Among analysts and economists, Safe Haven is often called plain, old "risk aversion".

Whatever you call it, though, mortgage rate shoppers are squealing with delight right now. In a week in which mortgage rates were supposed to face upward pressure from new economic data and a Federal Reserve meeting, fears of a pandemic virus are hogging the headlines and leading mortgage rates lower. 

Traders are nervous that Swine Flu will slow the recovering economy's growth and that is drawing money into mortgage-backed bonds.  Conforming mortgage rates have improved by 0.125 percent since Friday's market close as a result.

If nothing else, the Swine Flu outbreak vis-a-vis the mortgage market's reaction illustrates a key theme present in this website's writings. It's not the events we prepare for that drive mortgage rates the most -- it's the events we never predicted at all. 

Today, the element of surprise is working in favor of conforming mortgage shoppers in Cincinnati, Chicago, or wherever.  Tomorrow, momentum could be reversed. All it would take is a downgrade to the World Health Organization's alert level. Less fear of contagion, less need for Safe Haven buying.

When risk-taking returns -- and it will return -- higher mortgage rates should return with it.