Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rates Only

The fine print: These mortgage rate predictions are based on the price of Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-issued mortgage-backed securities. MBS pricing is responsible for rates in Cincinnati, Ohio; Lake Forest, IL; and everywhere else you can get a conforming, conventional mortgage.

These predictions do not cover FHA streamline refinances because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, "special" loans like non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with more than 4 mortgages are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 24% think mortgage rates will increase
• 24% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 52% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this Indian Pole Dancing video, screaming "OMG" over and over.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Rates reach resistance this week. It's a good time to lock."

Mortgage rates are leveling. It's a signal to get locked.

Mortgage Rate Rally Reaches 19 Weeks

It's a Refi Boom. Mortgage rates are dropping.  By a lot.  And have been for some time now.  Heck, if you're willing to pay a point or two, you can get a 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the 3s; ARMs are drifting into the 2s.

It's ridiculous out there and homeowners are loving it! None of this was supposed to happen, after all.  Starting in April, mortgage rates were supposed to rise, remember.  But they didn't.  And Americans are reaping the benefits of a 5-month mortgage market rally.

However, all good things must come to an end and that goes for this Refi Boom, too. Mortgage rates have troughed; essentially unchanged, unable to cut resistance. And, looking back 2 weeks, mortgage bonds have moved more on a day-to-day basis than what's been normal.

It tells us that, although markets may be trading favorably for mortgage rates, Wall Street is pretty unsure of what it's doing and where rates are at.

Therefore, one of 2 things happens from here:

1. Wall Street collectively decides mortgage rates should be lower, and rates fall
2. Wall Street collectively decides mortgage rates should be higher, and rates rise

The problem is that rates can't really fall much further.  They have plenty of room to rise, though.

Rates Rose 1.125% In Just 10 Days Last Year

Today's mortgage market is reminiscent of last May's. At the time, after some Fed intervention and a run of poor economic data, mortgage rates had made all-time lows and a mini Refi Boom had started.

At first, Wall Streeters piled into mortgage bonds as a safety play. Then, they did it as a profit play.  And then -- like what always happens -- something spooked the banks. They couldn't sell their stuff fast enough.

Over the course of 10 days, mortgage rates rose 1.125 percent and the Refi Boom was over. It's how this Refi Boom will end, too.  Quickly, and with force. So don't be greedy and wait for lower rates.  You may get them, but what if you don't?

There's A Fine Line Between Prudent And Stupid

To be plain about it -- if you own a home with a mortgage, talk to somebody about a refinance.  And by "somebody", I don't mean your neighbor or your sister.  Talk to a loan officer; somebody who can show you numbers and math.

Do you refi research, plan to limit your closing costs, and keep your options open for the future. That's the best way to play it right now.  And if you don't have a loan officer, call or and I'll walk you through what to do. I'll also get you pricing for your loan and explain how "zero-cost" mortgages can work in your favor in markets like these.

Either way, rates are stupid low right now. Don't miss a chance to do something about it. .

It's a Refi Boom and you're among the millions of homeowners trying to snare a low rates while they last.

Thing is, though, when rates are this low, the hard part of a refinance isn't locking the low rate. Low rates are easy to lock. The hard part is closing on the low rate before its rate lock expires.

Life Imitates TV. People Can Only Work So Fast.

If you're refinancing your home right now -- or even thinking about it -- watch this I Love Lucy video.  It's an (imperfect) metaphor for what's happening in mortgage underwriting offices as volume grows.

As you're watching the video, think of:

• Lucy and Ethel as mortgage underwriters
• Chocolates as mortgage applications

It doesn't take much for the girls in the Wrapping Department to get overwhelmed. Two people can only do so much.

Mortgage Underwriting Is Backing Up

Relating to mortgages, with each day that 30-year fixed rates stay below 4.500 percent, and that 15-year fixed rates stay below 4.000 percent, new mortgage applications find their way onto the metaphorical underwriting conveyor belt.

Underwriters are getting backed up. Quickly. And now, most banks are "suggesting" that loans come with 45-day locks at minimum. A 45-day rate lock is more expensive than a 30-day rate lock, of course.

If low rates persist, soon, 60-day locks may be mandatory and that's even more costly.

Get Low Rates And Keep Loan Costs Low

Loans don't get to underwriting these days without a complete supporting paperwork and an appraisal. Therefore, if you've just started the steps of a refinance, or plan to, make sure you're on the ball.

Gather your W-2s, your paystubs and tax returns; return phone calls from your lender promptly; and, most important, let the appraiser in your home as soon as you possibly can.

If you can do these things, your application will be the first chocolate on the belt and not the last. It's the best way to close on your loan quickly.  And closing quickly saves you money.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate Now

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

It's time to make a move -- the underwriting backup started last week. .

Mortgage Market Update For July 27 2010

Mortgage rates have been stupid-low lately, sparking the start of a Refi Boom.

This 96-second video covers a lot of ground:

• The hidden stats in June's Existing Home Sales report
• How move-up buyers are making the Fall Market
• Mortgage rates exhibiting the tell-tale signs of rising
• Timing rate locks for 30 days, 45 days or 60 days for lower fees
• The importance of returning your loan documents quickly

Refinance business is booming right now and purchase activity is close behind. If you're contemplating a mortgage and want to work with me, just . We can start working on your rate quote right away.