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Author's Note: This post was written for Bring the Blog, a mortgage and real estate professionals' service that writes supplemental blog content. I am the owner of the company.  The local keywords "Cincinnati" and "Ohio" were added automatically via Bring the Blog's localization system.

One day after November’s Existing Home Sales report blew away estimates, the Census Bureau’s related New Homes Sales report failed to impress.

A “new home” is a home that is newly-constructed; not bought as a resale.

In a lackluster showing, New Home Sales dropped 11 percent in November, falling to the lowest levels since April. Furthermore, the all-important “months of supply” climbed by a half-month to 7.9.

The press pounced on the figures and if you only read the headlines, you’d think that housing had cratered.

Some of the angles were quite bold, even:

• Weak U.S. Home Sales Show Recovery’s Shakiness (Reuters)
• New Home Sales Plunge In November (CNNMoney.com)
• Housing Forecast : Off Life Support, Still In Critical Care (CBS News)

And these headlines, although technically accurate, only tell half the story. The other half relates to November 30’s role as the original First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit ending date.

See, different from home resales, when a contract is written on a newly-built home, the home is rarely finished.  This is the same in Ohio as in any state in the union.  According to the Census Bureau, just 1 in 4 such new homes are sold “move-in ready”.  The other 3 of 4 are in various stages of construction when a buyer signs on the dotted line.

Some have yet to break ground, even.

Regardless, it’s at this date of signing that the Census Bureau counts the home as “sold” — not at the actual closing.  This is the main reason behind the November New Home Sales data dip.

First-time home buyers in Cincinnati would have risked up to $8,000 in federal tax credits if they had (1) signed for a newly-built home and (2) it wasn’t ready for move-in by November 30, 2009.

It wasn’t until November 5 that the credit was officially extended, remember.

So, suddenly, the fact that first-timer home buyers represented more than half of last month’s Existing Home Sales isn’t so shocking. "Buying new" in Novembers carried a lot of risk.

There’s always more to the story than the headline.  Sometimes, you have to dig deeper.

Looking back over 10 months, the housing market is on a steady course of improvement. November’s New Home Sales data — although weak — is not terrible. Despite what the papers might say.

To get content like this for your mortgage or real estate blog, check Bring the Blog.

The last two years have been rough on housing in a chain reaction-kind of way.

First, mortgage guidelines tightened, preventing some homeowners from ditching onerous ARM products.  That sparked a foreclosure boom that led to large losses on Wall Street.  In turn, it sank the U.S. economy.

Today, as compared to 3 years ago, foreclosures are way up, home values are way down, and mortgage rates are as low as they've ever been. It's wonderful news for home buyers -- there's a plentiful supply of homes and financing is cheap. Home affordability is near all-time highs.

But the market is changing.

Massive, sustained government stimulus has helped reverse the economy's slide.  There's still some rough patches, but overall, prospects look bright for 2010.

In housing, we can already see the improvement:

• The supply of new homes is down 40 percent this year
• The number of existing home sales are soaring in Cincinnati and other markets
• Pending home sales are as high as they've been since 2006

Furthermore, home prices are on the rise in the majority of U.S. markets.

The Buyers Market is over, folks. If you bought a home in February 2009, pat yourself on the back -- you timed the market bottom perfectly.  Both home prices and mortgage rates were troughing that month.  Since then, however, it's been a steady erosion and home seller are psyched about it.

For today's home buyers, mortgage rates remain low and home prices have a lot farther to climb.  Homebuying conditions may not be as perfect as they were 9 months, but, as compared to what we'll see next year, they're pretty excellent.  Especially because mortgage rates will cross 6 percent soon.

You can't lock a mortgage rate before you've found a home, but you can get prequalified and fast-tracked for one. Call or for a rate quote and help with your homebuying.  I answer all of my own emails and my rates are very, very good.

The housing industry's had a rough few years. Foreclosures are way up, home values are way down, and -- pardon my french -- but mortgage underwriters are so tight that if you stuck a lump of coal up their fist, in two weeks you'd have a diamond.

For home buyers, though, the "bad news" has come with a tremendous upside.

In housing, the basic law of Supply and Demand bestowed upon buyers an unbelievable amount of negotiation leverage.  Want a lower sales price? Just ask for it. Need your closing costs paid for? Write it into your offer letter. Want a quick closing? Sure, whatever you need.

But the Buyer Heyday may be over.  At least, that's what recent data suggests:

• The supply of new homes is falling at a precipitous pace
• Existing home sales are soaring in Cincinnati and other markets
• Home buyer activity is strong on all fronts -- first-time, move-up, and investor.

Furthermore, home prices are on the rise across a wide band of U.S. markets -- the smoking gun that the Buyers' Market is ending.

For now, mortgage rates remain low and the government is still supporting first-time home buyers with a generous tax credit.   If you're on the fence about buying a home or what to do next, call or .  I'd like to be your loan officer and if by chance I'm not licensed in your particular state, I'll point you to somebody that is.

The housing industry's had a rough few years.  Foreclosures are way up, home values are way down, and -- pardon my french --  but mortgage underwriters are so tight that if you stuck a lump of coal up their fist, in two weeks you'd have a diamond.

The upside of it all is that today's home buyers have an unprecedented amount of negotiation leverage with the sellers.  Want a lower sales price? Just ask for it.  Need your closing costs paid for? Put it in your offer letter.  Want to close in 30 days?  The world is your oyster.

A look at the recent statistics, though, suggests the market is morphing.

• Sales of new homes are rising at the fastest clip in a decade
• The supply of existing homes is falling month-by-month
• Home buyer activity continues to surge

Furthermore, home prices are no longer falling in many U.S. markets.

So, all this to say, if it hasn't happened already, home buyers are about to lose their upper-hand with their sellers.  And when they do, buying a home won't be nearly the "deal" it may feel like today.  Especially once mortgage rates head back up and the $8,000 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit meets its December 1 expiration date.

After all that, home sellers will be back in the proverbial driver seat, moving homes for more money and with fewer concessions.  Indeed, housing data suggests that this is happening in some markets already.

They say today's housing market is a Buyer's Market.  Well, it's only a buyer's market if you actually buy.

If you're thinking about buying but are on the fence about what to do next, call or .  I'm happy to work with you and, if I'm not licensed in your particular state, I can definitely point you in the right direction.