Thanks for visiting The Mortgage Reports. To stay absolutely current on mortgage markets and important guideline changes, be sure to take my free daily email alerts.

Mortgage Rate Velocity -- the rate of rate sheet change -- is higher than it's been all year.

Because mortgage rates have become a moving target, life is tough for folks in search of "the lowest rate available".  There's barely the time to complete your shopping before lender shift their pricing.

What Makes Mortgage Rates Change?

Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage bonds, plus whatever risk-based pricing applies to an individual borrower.

Mortgage bonds are bought and sold on Wall Street.  Like stocks, they price on supply-and-demand which, of course, changes minute-by-minute.  It follows, therefore, that mortgage bond pricing changes minute-by-minute, too.

This doesn't mean that rates do, though.  Instead, mortgage rates rise or fall when bond prices move by a some-number of ticks.  Usually, that number is 25 basis points.

Simplified, when the change in bond pricing passes certain threshold, mortgage rates move higher or lower. In April, that threshold was crossed a lot more frequently than in March.

Rates Now Change In The Middle Of Day. Sometimes 3 Times.

In April, mortgage pricing crossed the threshold every 4 hours, 6 minutes, on average.

For rate shoppers in Cincinnati, that stat means that the rate quote you got this morning -- from your loan officer, from your bank's website, or from wherever -- is 100% useless to you by the time this afternoon rolls around.

Pricing crossed the threshold and your rate went bad.

It also means the rate quote you took by email 2 weeks ago from that "online lender" isn't worth the pixels it's printed on. If you're shopping for mortgage right now and want to make sure you get that rate you were just quoted, the best thing you can do it lock it right this instant.

"Thinking on it" overnight only means that you'll lose it.

Shield Yourself From Mortgage Rate Velocity

I track mortgage data in real-time for my clients and summarize it to Twitter and occasionally to Facebook. It's free information and I'm sending alerts before new rate sheets are published.

Follow me online and you'll stay ahead of the market.

My alerts could save your beaucoup bucks over the life of your mortgage but being "alert" is just one part of being ready. You should also have your loan application queued up with a bank before mortgage rates start moving.

Banks won't give rate locks without applications on file.

To give an application, call my office at 513-443-2020 or . And give an application to at least 2 other loan officers, too, for purposes of "shopping around".  Don't worry -- your credit score won't be damaged so long as you shop the way I tell you to.

MRV is high and markets move quickly.  Be ready to lock and watch for reversal. The interest rate you save may be your own.

Mortgage Market Update For April 21 2010

With 9 days left to claim the federal home buyer tax credit, I thought this would be a good time to review the mortgage market, jumbo loans, and the state of home appraisals.

This 2-minute video covers a lot of ground:

• How volcanoes and threats of a Greece debt default are helping mortgage rates
• Peak levels for Mortgage Rate Velocity (MRV)
• How jumbo mortgage rates are "made" and why jumbos are so cheap right now
• The return of the home appraisal

If you've got mortgage-related questions I didn't answer above, email them to me directly at . I'm happy to talk mortgage with you anytime.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate survey and this week's results may help you time a rate lock.

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages nor is the survey specific to South Carolina or Virginia mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 39% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 22% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 39% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent with D'Andre Cole than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"As safe haven buying recedes, mortgage rates advance."

I hope you took advantage of the low rates last week because it'll be the last time we go sub-5 percent maybe ever.

Last Week, Why Did Rates Fall So Much?

Recent gains in the mortgage market are a direct result of something called "safe haven buying". It's market jargon and it's used to describe a trading pattern that tends to emerge during times of uncertainty.

Safe haven buying is characterized by large numbers of investors moving money away from risky investments and toward safer ones.  It's a logical response to surprise events.

Rather than doubling down on their bets in play, traders take their chips off the risk table until the future gets less murky and that's a big reason of why rates fell last week. Greece has yet to show it can meet its debt obligations and there's concern that a default could bring down the broader European Union.

As far as investor risks go, this is a big one.

Why You Should Count On A Turnaround

This past Tuesday, Greece held a successful debt auction. Investors clamored for short-term securities as leaders in the EU pledged support to the nation.

Demand outweighed supply by a multiple of 7.67.  That's huge.  It shows that markets are confident in Greece's ability to recover and it's no coincidence that Tuesday marked the week's low point for U.S. mortgage rates.

Investors are unwinding their safe haven trades, dumping excess mortgage bonds into the open market, pressuring mortgage rates to move higher.

Get ahead of the rate changes because MRV -- Mortgage Rate Velocity -- is as high as its been in a year.

Rate hikes are coming this week and they're going to hit hard.

Float or Lock? Get Your Strategy In Place

Mortgage markets are no longer favorable. Safe haven patterns have receded and there's little to keep mortgage rates low.  The economy continues to show incremental improvement and the stock market is racing past 11,000.

Don't get caught watching the paint dry.

You may have gotten off easy by floating your rate up until now, but it's time to move into locking position.  If you haven't given a loan application to your loan officer, do it ASAP. The longer you wait, the more this next loan is going to cost you.

However, being "alert" is only one part of being ready. You must also have a loan application on file with your lender.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process.  To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or . And be sure to give applications to other loan officers, too.  Don't worry -- your credit score won't be damaged if you do it the right way.

Then, once you're done shopping, you can lock on the spot without fear of rates going nuts on you. MRV is extremely high right now. Change happens in a flash.