Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rates Only

The fine print: These mortgage rate predictions are based on the price of Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-issued mortgage-backed securities. MBS pricing is responsible for rates in Cincinnati, Ohio; Lake Forest, IL; and everywhere else you can get a conforming, conventional mortgage.

These predictions do not cover FHA streamline refinances because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, "special" loans like non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with more than 4 mortgages are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 24% think mortgage rates will increase
• 24% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 52% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this Indian Pole Dancing video, screaming "OMG" over and over.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Rates reach resistance this week. It's a good time to lock."

Mortgage rates are leveling. It's a signal to get locked.

Mortgage Rate Rally Reaches 19 Weeks

It's a Refi Boom. Mortgage rates are dropping.  By a lot.  And have been for some time now.  Heck, if you're willing to pay a point or two, you can get a 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the 3s; ARMs are drifting into the 2s.

It's ridiculous out there and homeowners are loving it! None of this was supposed to happen, after all.  Starting in April, mortgage rates were supposed to rise, remember.  But they didn't.  And Americans are reaping the benefits of a 5-month mortgage market rally.

However, all good things must come to an end and that goes for this Refi Boom, too. Mortgage rates have troughed; essentially unchanged, unable to cut resistance. And, looking back 2 weeks, mortgage bonds have moved more on a day-to-day basis than what's been normal.

It tells us that, although markets may be trading favorably for mortgage rates, Wall Street is pretty unsure of what it's doing and where rates are at.

Therefore, one of 2 things happens from here:

1. Wall Street collectively decides mortgage rates should be lower, and rates fall
2. Wall Street collectively decides mortgage rates should be higher, and rates rise

The problem is that rates can't really fall much further.  They have plenty of room to rise, though.

Rates Rose 1.125% In Just 10 Days Last Year

Today's mortgage market is reminiscent of last May's. At the time, after some Fed intervention and a run of poor economic data, mortgage rates had made all-time lows and a mini Refi Boom had started.

At first, Wall Streeters piled into mortgage bonds as a safety play. Then, they did it as a profit play.  And then -- like what always happens -- something spooked the banks. They couldn't sell their stuff fast enough.

Over the course of 10 days, mortgage rates rose 1.125 percent and the Refi Boom was over. It's how this Refi Boom will end, too.  Quickly, and with force. So don't be greedy and wait for lower rates.  You may get them, but what if you don't?

There's A Fine Line Between Prudent And Stupid

To be plain about it -- if you own a home with a mortgage, talk to somebody about a refinance.  And by "somebody", I don't mean your neighbor or your sister.  Talk to a loan officer; somebody who can show you numbers and math.

Do you refi research, plan to limit your closing costs, and keep your options open for the future. That's the best way to play it right now.  And if you don't have a loan officer, call or and I'll walk you through what to do. I'll also get you pricing for your loan and explain how "zero-cost" mortgages can work in your favor in markets like these.

Either way, rates are stupid low right now. Don't miss a chance to do something about it. .

Each Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes a "national" mortgage rate in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey.  Nevermind its flawed methodology -- the Freddie Mac survey does an excellent job of showing whether mortgage rates are rising or falling.

Since early-April, rates are down and down big.

A 4-Month Rally In Mortgage Rates

Going back 18 weeks, week after week, the story is the same. Mortgage rates are falling and making new, all-time lows. You can't open the paper or watch the news without hearing about it.

As for why it's happening, the logic is pretty basic. When the economy hits a rough patch, or when uncertainty rides high, investors prefer to put money somewhere safe and bonds backed by the U.S. government fit the bill.  The U.S. government has never defaulted on debt and its backing is considered a guarantee of repayment. Ergo, U.S. government-backed debt is "riskless".

When investors move into government debt, it's often called a "flight to quality". Mortgage bonds gain on it.  This is because mortgage-backed bonds have the implicit backing of the U.S. government and are considered "safe".

The added demand leads bonds prices higher and, because bond yields move opposite of price, mortgage rates lower.

On April 8, 2010, the average, 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.21% -- the high point for 2010.  Since then, however, fears of a renewed recession and general economic malaise have contributed to an ongoing, seemingly-endless rally. There's been very little "good news" to reverse the slide, the constant negativity helped to lower mortgage rates by almost an entire percentage point.

Not since ever have conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rates been this low in Cincinnati.

The Falling Cost Of A 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

Today's low rates have reduced the long-term cost of ownership by a lot.

To validate the math, we look at the interest paid over the life of a loan, plus its upfront costs (i.e. "points"). Naturally, the higher the interest rate, the more expensive the loan's long-term cost.

Comparing 1994 to today:

• In 1994, at interest rates of 9.375%, it cost $900,000 to repay off a $300,000 loan
• In 2010, at interest rates of 4.250%, it costs $540,000 to repay off a $300,000 loan

That's a three-hundred-sixty-thousand dollar difference in just 16 years.  And, 1994 isn't that long ago, either.  There's plenty of people in Cincinnati who've lived in their same home for 16 years. If these same people bought a home today -- at today's rates -- the cost of homeownership would be 38% less. That's huge.

Furthermore, as compared to May 1, 2010 -- the day after the $8,000 federal home buyer tax credit expired -- today's cost of carrying a 30-year fixed rate mortgage to term is lower by $45,500.

That's irony right there.

Mortgage Rates Are Low. Lock In Already.

When we talk about home affordability, it's stuff like this; long-term mortgage costs are down; home values are troughed; lumber and labor are cheap.  It's an excellent time to buy or build a home, all things relative.

It's also an excellent time to refinance.  If you bought a home between 2006 and the early-2010, you should really look at rates vis-a-vis your loan term costs of ownership. Not every family will save 38% long-term on their mortgage, but some of you will.

Get a free, no-obligation quote on your mortgage, .  Or, call me.  I answer my calls and answer all my own emails.

Mortgage rates change all the time so that 4.250 30-year fixed rate might not be available for you if you wait. Therefore, if it makes financial sense to refinance today, do it.

With home prices in gentle recovery and mortgage rates continuing to fall, home affordability is cresting in Ohio, and nationwide.

Mortgage Rates Drive Down Homeownership Costs

According to the Home Opportunity Index, more than 72 percent of homes sold between April-June 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income.  The data is tracked by the National Association of Home Builders.

It's the second highest reading in the survey's history.

The data shouldn't come as a surprise because of how home affordability is calculated -- it's based on the combination of home prices and mortgage rates.  Home prices, as we know, were battered in the latter part of last decade and are only now making a modest recovery.

Mortgage rates, on the other hand, have been steadily dropping.  In the same April-June 2010 time period, conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell by 1/2 percent.

A half-percent drop in mortgage rates saves homeowners $1,085 annually, assuming a $250,000 mortgage.

Where Homes Are "Most Affordable"

Like everything real estate-related, though, home affordability varies by locale.

For example, 97.2% of homes sold in Syracuse were affordable for families making the area's median income which earning the New York city its first "Most Affordable Major City" designation.  Indianapolis was the first quarter winner.

Here in Ohio, homes were especially affordable, too:

• Dayton : 92.8% of homes are "affordable"; 28th nationally
• Cincinnati : 88.4% of homes are "affordable"; 46th nationally
• Columbus : 88.1% of homes are "affordable"; 47th nationally

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the "Least Affordable Major City" title went to the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ area for the 9th consecutive quarter.  Just 19.9% of homes are affordable to families earning the local median income.

Chicago ranked 175th.

The rankings for all 225 metro areas are viewable on the NAHB website.

When It's Time To Buy, You'll Need A Pre-Approval Letter

All things considered, buying a home may never be this inexpensive again. If you were planning to purchase later this year, or sometime in 2011, you may want to consider move up your time frame.  And you're going to need a pre-approval letter.

To get a mortgage application in-process or to see for how much you'd qualify, . I answer all my owns emails and am happy to get you started.

(This post adapted from Bring the Blog, a blog-publishing service for loan officers and real estate agents.)

Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Rates For Conforming Mortgages Only

The fine print: These mortgage rate predictions are based on the price of Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-issued mortgage-backed securities. MBS pricing is responsible for rates in Cincinnati, Ohio; Lake Forest, IL; and everywhere else you can get a conforming, conventional mortgage.

On the other hand, these predictions do not cover FHA streamline refinances because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, "special" loans like non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 50% think mortgage rates will increase
• 30% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 20% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent learning when to use "i.e." and when to use "e.g.".

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"An object in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force. This week, there's no such force. Rates continue downward."

Finally -- physics and economics converge.

Mortgage Rate Rally Reaches 18 Weeks

Week after week, it's been the same story.  Mortgage rates retreat and make new, all-time lows. It's been like this since April.

If you'll remember, there was high hopes for the U.S. economy at the time.  Housing was in repair, spending was on the rise, and confidence was booming.  Wall Street was pouring into stocks and the bond market was prepared for the after-effects of the Fed's withdrawal from mortgage bonds.

It was April 8, 2010, and the average, 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.21%.

And then, things went sideways.

First, Eyjafallajökull erupted in Iceland and disrupted the European economy.  Next, Greece sovereign debt problems emerged.  Then, U.S. jobs data failed to show spark, among other economic disappointments. The stock market rally slowed. The bond market rally began.

And, since that time, there's been no real news to slow the flow of money into mortgage bonds, and that's what's pushing mortgage rates lower each week. It's Newton's First Law of Motion As Applied To Mortgage Rates.

Until there's a force to reverse the flow of rates, pricing will continue to improve.

The Reality Check : Rates Are Only Falling 0.03% Per Week

See, here's the thing.  When mortgage rates first started dropped, the week-to-week changes were pretty big.  10 basis points here, 15 basis points there -- it added up pretty quickly.

Since July 1, though, deltas are smaller.

Over the past 8 weeks, on average, mortgage rates have only improved by 3 basis points per week. That's a slow drip, my friends, and it's creating confusion among the people that have already joined the Refi Boom.

See, according to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates keep making new lows week after week. And, technically, it's true. Mortgage rates have made new lows 6 weeks in a row. But -- and it's a big but -- when we add up the improvements to rate over the last six weeks, we see that it only adds up to 1/8 percent.

Rates dropping 1/8 percent in 6 weeks is nothing to write home about.

That tidbit should appease any homeowners with loans in-process who feel like they locked "too soon".  Rates are essentially the same today as they've been for 2 months. The only difference is that the press is giving wall-to-wall coverage which makes it seem like rates have really dropped.  They haven't.

Rather, it's homeowners that haven't joined the Refi Boom that should get moving.

Rates May Drop, But It's Time To Lock-In Anyway

The consistent, gradual decline in mortgage rates is rapidly filling mortgage underwriter pipelines and bogging down the appraisal process. This leads to longer mortgage approval times which, in turn, necessitates longer rate locks.

Longer rate locks mean higher loan costs.  Ergo, don't sit back and wait another week.  Rate should fall by another few basis points, but you'll more than that in closing costs.

To give an application and get locked, call my office at 513-443-2020. It'll be 4-minute call and I'll get a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. Or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

At first glance, the July Existing Home Sales report was atrocious. Sales volume fell to 15-year lows, home supplies jumped 40 percent, and the press is beating the point to a pulp.

But, depending on your home's price tier, though, the news may not be so bad.  The real estate market is a tale of two price tiers.

Luxury Homes Recovering; First-Time Homes Flailing

For homeowners with property worth $1 million or more, the real estate market improved in July.  There's a number of reasons for this, and most of them are consistent with "an improving economy".

To make this argument, though, we must first make a very important assumption; that Americans buying homes worth $1,000,000 or more fall into one of four categories:

1. Holder of a large amounts of assets which makes annuity payments
2. Corporate-level executive with large salary
3. Highly-commissioned salesperson
4. Owner (or part-owner) or a highly-grossing business or practice

I make these assumptions because, as a loan officer, I know them to be mostly true. A homeowner will be approved for a mortgage without verifiable income and a $1,000,000 mortgage requires roughly $250,000 in adjusted gross income, assuming ordinary debts and deductions.

Now, although the economy is short on jobs and tight on credit, business spending has been improving for months.   The Fed has been highlighting this fact in its FOMC press releases, and just last quarter, business spending jumped 22 percent. And when businesses buy, corporations make money and salespersons get commissioned.

Just think. The Wynn in Las Vegas is remodeling 2,716 hotel rooms. That's a lot of purchasing and a lot of people are going to see bigger paychecks because of it. Bigger paychecks means more confidence in the future and a greater willingness to buy a new home.

Unfortunately, economics like this rarely trickle-down.

For Americans that don't directly benefit from business spending, therefore, Existing Home Sales data is worsening, relative.  Sales volume in the "starter home" categories are way down from June.  This is partly the result of the post-tax credit normalization, but also attributable to a dearth of W-2, salaried jobs.

Homeowners with property worth less than $1 million are seeing sales volume fall and sales supply rise. Home prices may start to lag within this price range.

Jumbo Mortgages Are Aiding The Luxury Home Markets

Coincidentally, the luxury housing is benefiting from the return of the jumbo mortgage market. It's a lot easier to buy a home when there's financing available for it.

Since mid-May, jumbo mortgage rates on ARMs have come way down, and financing has opened up in the 30-year fixed and 15-year fixed arena.  Downpayment requirements are loosening, too.

Just six months ago, you might have needed 30% downpayment at minimum to get a competitive mortgage rate on $1 million or more.  Today, it's 20 percent.

Furthermore, underwriting guidelines are loosening around credit scores, asset requirements, and loan purpose.

Overall, it's simpler to qualify for jumbo mortgages than in recent quarters.  This may be another reason why the luxury home market is thriving.

Your Bank May Not Offer Jumbo Mortgages

Jumbo loans are available, but that doesn't mean that every bank will offer them, or assign them competitive interest rates.  Make at least two calls before you settle on a particular rate-and-program because fees will vary. Then, if your bank makes you pay a point, .

You should be able to get excellent rates without points in the jumbo market right now. Remember -- each point equals 1 percent of your loan size.  Or, in the case of a $1 million loan, $10,000 in fees.

Reach out anytime. I answer my own emails and will help you with your jumbo loan.

Mortgage rates are stupid low and that's why this is a Refi Boom. But when it comes to refinancing your home -- or buying one -- there's more than rates to focus on.  You've got to watch fees, too, and depending where you live, closing costs can be expensive.

What Are Mortgage Closing Costs?

Mortgage "closing costs" is the sum of all charges related to a new mortgage.  In general, these charges are grouped into two categories, labeled on a Good Faith Estimate as "Origination Charges" and "Third-Party Fees", respectively.

The category "Origination Charges" includes any fee paid directly to the lender at the time of closing.  Origination Charges include costs such as underwriting fees, application fees and processing fees. It may also include origination points, discount points, and broker fees.

These individual elements have different names from lender-to-lender so don't get hung up on what they're called. Origination Charges are fees paid to the lender.  Period.

By contrast, "Third-Party Fees" are fees paid to parties other than the lender.  Third-party fees include the costs of appraisals, credit reports, settlement fees and title searches.

When comparing mortgages, third-party fees should usually be ignored. This is because most third-party fees are fixed-price offerings with little room for variance (i.e. government stamps, recording fees). Because they're fixed-fee, these types of costs will be identical no matter which lender with which you choose to work.

As a side note, escrow reserves and per diem interest are not closing costs. They are "prepaid items" and do not apply to a discussion on closing costs.

Closing Costs Aren't Necessarily Higher, Just More Accurately Disclosed

According to its annual Closing Cost survey, Bankrate.com shows typical closing costs around the country higher by 37 percent from 2009.  That's a huge jump, but the breakdown is even more revealing.

Versus 2009, origination charges are up 23 percent to $1,463.  Third-party fees, on the hand, are up 47 percent.

There's several reasons for the disparity and most of it ties back to government regulation that went into effect January 1, 2010.

As part of the amended Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, loan originators are now bound to the accuracy of their respective Good Faith Estimates.  To protect consumers from low-balled Good Faith Estimates and worse, the law slapped a 10% tolerance zone on most fees quoted therein.

If the "final" fee varies by more than 10% from the original "estimate", the loan originator must absorb the cost. The "mistake" cannot be charged to the borrower.  This change has spurred loan officers to get more accurate with their GFEs which may be one reason why charges appear to be higher -- especially the third-party ones.

In the past, it was common to see mortgage companies purposely understate third-party fees to make their own Good Faith Estimates look more attractive.  That's not possible now.

A second reason why closing costs appear higher is that RESPA reform also requires new levels of disclosure and compliance and these changes come at a cost to the banks.  The costs are being passed on to consumers in the Origination Charges section.

In other words, it's not that closing costs are necessarily higher by 37 percent as Bankrate.com is telling us.  What's more likely is that costs are up modestly, and are more accurately disclosed.

How To Reduce Your Closing Costs

The good thing about closing costs is that they're negotiable, in some respects.  You can't avoid paying underwriting fees or taxes to the government, for example, but you can arrange to have loan costs paid on your behalf.

It's called a "zero-cost mortgage".

A zero-cost mortgage is exactly what it sounds like -- it's a mortgage in which all closing costs are paid by the lender instead of the borrower. Loan sizes don't increase and nothing is "rolled in".  It's a true no-cost loan.  However, there is a trade-off.  In order to have your closing costs waived in full, you'll be asked to accept a higher mortgage rate than the "market" rate.

For larger loan sizes, the bump to interest rate is usually about a quarter-percent; for smaller sizes, it's about a half.

Zero-cost mortgages are excellent in a falling interest rate environment because they limit sunk costs to zero, and because they offer an immediate payback.  Not every bank will offer them, though.  Waterstone Mortgage does.

If you'd like to see the math on a zero-cost mortgage, . I'm happy to talk to you about it.

Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Predictions Only

First, the fine print. These mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages in Cincinnati, Ohio; Potomac, Maryland; and everywhere else.

FHA streamline refinances are not covered because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with 5 to 10 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 47% think mortgage rates will increase
• 6% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 47% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent playing The Lying Down Game.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"After a brief pause, rates resume sliding."

I am the only survey participant calling for a drop in rates this week so heads-up.

The Long-Term Trend Of Falling Rates

Looking back to mid-April, mortgage rates have been falling. It's been a gradual shift. So gradual, in fact, that most people weren't even aware that a Refi Boom had started until it was 10 weeks old.

Between April and early-July, mortgage rates cut new lows nearly every week.

And, we can't lose sight of why rates fell every week because, fundamentally, nothing has changed in the economy since. You could even make an argument that today's economy is more conducive to low rates than from April.  The jobs market has been slow to rebound, home values are stagnating, and global economies remain shaky.

Even the Federal Reserve adjusted its expectations lower.

And, why have mortgage rates dropped so far these past few months? Because there's no reason for them to do anything else. The mortgage bond markets set the tone for mortgage rates and bonds have been in rally mode.

Think of it like physics -- an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by outside force. And, right now, there's no outside force to act on mortgage rates.  Until there is, rates should continue to slide.

The trend is your friend.

The Subtle Signals That Change May Be Coming

Now, there's a caveat in this inertia argument. Although mortgage rates are sliding, there comes a point where that "outside force" shows up. Sometimes, it comes unannounced (i.e. change in government policy, terrorism); most times, it can be forecast.

If the bond markets were meteorological, the Doppler radar would show threats to low rates in the vicinity.

• The VIX Index is elevated
• Mortgage bonds are carving out wide ranges daily
• 5-month bond rallies are relatively uncommon

Therefore, despite low rates, now is probably not the time to sit back and see what happens.  Don't be greedy.

Rates May Drop, But It's Time To Lock-In Anyway

Mortgage rates are really, really low. Take the bird-in-hand. Get started on that refi.

To give an application and get locked, call my office at 513-443-2020. It'll be 4-minute call and I'll get a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. Or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

It's a Refi Boom and you're among the millions of homeowners trying to snare a low rates while they last.

Thing is, though, when rates are this low, the hard part of a refinance isn't locking the low rate. Low rates are easy to lock. The hard part is closing on the low rate before its rate lock expires.

Life Imitates TV. People Can Only Work So Fast.

If you're refinancing your home right now -- or even thinking about it -- watch this I Love Lucy video.  It's an (imperfect) metaphor for what's happening in mortgage underwriting offices as volume grows.

As you're watching the video, think of:

• Lucy and Ethel as mortgage underwriters
• Chocolates as mortgage applications

It doesn't take much for the girls in the Wrapping Department to get overwhelmed. Two people can only do so much.

Mortgage Underwriting Is Backing Up

Relating to mortgages, with each day that 30-year fixed rates stay below 4.500 percent, and that 15-year fixed rates stay below 4.000 percent, new mortgage applications find their way onto the metaphorical underwriting conveyor belt.

Underwriters are getting backed up. Quickly. And now, most banks are "suggesting" that loans come with 45-day locks at minimum. A 45-day rate lock is more expensive than a 30-day rate lock, of course.

If low rates persist, soon, 60-day locks may be mandatory and that's even more costly.

Get Low Rates And Keep Loan Costs Low

Loans don't get to underwriting these days without a complete supporting paperwork and an appraisal. Therefore, if you've just started the steps of a refinance, or plan to, make sure you're on the ball.

Gather your W-2s, your paystubs and tax returns; return phone calls from your lender promptly; and, most important, let the appraiser in your home as soon as you possibly can.

If you can do these things, your application will be the first chocolate on the belt and not the last. It's the best way to close on your loan quickly.  And closing quickly saves you money.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate Now

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

It's time to make a move -- the underwriting backup started last week. .

Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Predictions Only

First, the fine print. These mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages nationwide -- including Cincinnati, Ohio; Potomac, Maryland; and everywhere else.

FHA streamline refinances are not covered because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded. Same for pay day loans.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 40% think mortgage rates will increase
• 13% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 47% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent researching the HPOA Hoax.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The Fed set rates back on a downward trajectory."

I'm changing my tune. Mortgage markets are not about to rise. I see them staying at least flat for now.

The Fed Doesn't Make Rates (But It Does Influence)

This mortgage blog wastes a lot of ink on how the Federal Reserve doesn't make mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are made on the mortgage-backed securities market, then "adjusted for consumption" based on Fannie Mae's LLPA rulebook.

The Fed has nothing to do with mortgage rates. At least, not directly. Indirectly, it turns out, the Fed has a lot to do with mortgages.

As the nation's central banker, what the Federal Reserve says -- and what the Federal Reserve does -- ripples through the economy's every nook and cranny. Nothing is unaffected by the Fed and that includes the world of mortgages. So, when the Fed says things like the economy "has slowed" like it did earlier this week, it's only logical that mortgage markets react.

Over the last 36 hours, mortgage rates are down. Expect that to continue.

Beware Of The VIX -- Mortgage Rate Velocity Is Rising

With respect to falling rates, there's a major caveat. Regardless of what the Fed has said, mortgage markets remain tightly wound and scared.

Find your proof in the VIX, more commonly called the Fear Index. The VIX jumped 14 percent today, illustrating the concerns of Wall Street.

When VIX is high, mortgage rates tend to be volatile and rate shoppers tend to get screwed. The last time VIX reached record-levels, for example, mortgage rates rose 1.125% percent in less than 10 days. It was unlike anything I've ever seen.

Therefore, even though mortgage rates are low, it's not a time to wait-and-see.  A turnaround could happen just like <snap>.

Rates Are Falling, But It's Time To Lock In

Mortgage rates are really, really low. Now's not the time to be greedy. Take the bird-in-hand and get started on that refi.

To give an application and get locked, call my office at 513-443-2020. It'll be 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. Or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

Today, in its first meeting in 6 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.

Fed Funds Rate Held Near 0.000%

The Fed Fund Rate remains at a historical low, within a prescribed target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that, since June, the pace of economic recovery “has slowed”. Household spending is increasing but remains restrained because of high levels of unemployment, falling home values, and restrictive credit.

Today’s statement shows less economic optimism as compared to the prior year’s worth of FOMC statements dating back to June 2009. The Fed is looking for growth to be “more modest in the near-term” than its previous expectations.

Fed Stays On Message; No New News On The Economy

Weaknesses aside, the Fed highlighted strengths in the economy, too:

1. Growth is ongoing on a national level
2. Inflation levels remain exceedingly low
3. Business spending is rising

As expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”.

There were no surprises in the Fed’s statement so, as a result, the mortgage market’s reaction to the release has been neutral. Mortgage rates are unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next meeting is scheduled for September 21, 2010.

Join The Refi Boom Before Rates Rise

Mortgage rates are holding at all-time low levels. Regardless of how long you've owned your home, you may be eligible for a refinance. Talk to your loan officer about a rate quote, or . I'd be happy to get you pricing right away.

(Post adapted from Bring the Blog)

Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Predictions Only

By way of disclosure, these mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages only. The survey is national, covering Cincinnati, Ohio; Potomac, Maryland; and everywhere else.

FHA streamline refinances are not covered because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 21% think mortgage rates will increase
• 5% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 74% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this story about a guy sent to Mars for a reality TV show that ends up gets canceled on Day 36 of shooting.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"What goes down, must go up. Rates reached a plateau three weeks ago. Get ready for the rising."

Mortgage markets can't seem to break through resistance. It's signal that higher rates are coming.

Momentum Lasted 14 Weeks. Now It's Stopped. Lock In.

Mortgage markets are stuck. If you've been shopping for a loan lately, you've likely noticed that there's been no real change in mortgage rates going back 3 or 4 weeks. Or, maybe you haven't noticed.

Either way, it's bad for rate shoppers. Pricing has hit a wall and getting set to reverse higher. It's all about momentum and when you watch what rates have been doing since April, it'll all make sense.

Check out this timeline:

• Early-April : Eyjafjallajökull erupts, starting rates downward
• Mid-April : Greece sovereign debt issues arise; the slide continues.
• Early-June : Soft U.S. data keeps rates falling
• Mid-June : Mortgage rates reach new, all-time lows
• Late-June : Mortgage rates continue to make new, all-time lows
• Early-July : Mortgage rates bottom out; the Refi Boom begins

But since early-July, there's been no movement in the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, no movement in the 15-year fixed, and no movement in the ARMs. Rates are "stuck".

And, unfortunately, mortgage markets don't work like strength-training where a person plateaus for a few weeks, and then makes more gains.

In the Mortgage World, when momentum stops, it's because there's a force pulling in the opposite direction.

Lock That Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

After 14 weeks, mortgage rate momentum has stopped dead in its tracks. This should be your signal to lock in that rate.

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

Mortgage Market Update For July 27 2010

Mortgage rates have been stupid-low lately, sparking the start of a Refi Boom.

This 96-second video covers a lot of ground:

• The hidden stats in June's Existing Home Sales report
• How move-up buyers are making the Fall Market
• Mortgage rates exhibiting the tell-tale signs of rising
• Timing rate locks for 30 days, 45 days or 60 days for lower fees
• The importance of returning your loan documents quickly

Refinance business is booming right now and purchase activity is close behind. If you're contemplating a mortgage and want to work with me, just . We can start working on your rate quote right away.

Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead?  I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Forecast Only

By way of disclosure, these mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages only. The survey is national, covering Cincinnati, Ohio; Potomac, Maryland; and, everywhere else.  FHA streamline refinances are not covered because FHA mortgage rates are based on GNMA securities. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Florida, condotels in Chicago, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate predictions for the next week:

• 22% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 11% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 67% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching a construction paper re-enactment of every original Mortal Kombat death move.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"It's been three weeks with no change whatsoever. Rates have troughed. Increases are ahead."

Mortgage markets can't seem to break through resistance. It's signal that higher rates are coming.

For Mortgage Rates Clues, Watch Patterns

Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds and, like stocks, bonds respond to changes in economic data including inflation readings, jobs surveys, and housing reports. It's called "fundamental trading"; changing your risk positions based on measurable, quantifiable data.

However, there's another, equally-important type of market-making called "technical trading".

Technical trading is pattern-based trading, using historical trends and algorithms to predict where an asset's price will go next. Trading is carried out by software looking for peaks, valleys, and humps in an asset's pricing history with the assumption they'll repeat themselves.

Today, despite fundamental reasons for mortgage rates to fall, technical reasons are keeping them up.  Mortgage rates have tried to cut lower for 3 weeks now but can't seem to break through. This is technical trading in the wild.

When rates can't go lower, they must go up instead.

Rates Will Fall Again, But Not For A Few Weeks

30-year fixed mortgage rates are in the 4s.  5-year ARMs are in the 3s.  Rates like this warrant a phone call to your lender to at least ask about a refinance.

Call your loan officer and get the math. There's an excellent chance that refinancing your home will lower your mortgage rate and lower your bills substantially.  And, if you're worried about increasing your loan balance, just ask for a "zero cost" mortgage -- the rates on those are really low, too.

Just don't twiddle your thumbs.

Mortgage rates wait for no one and spikes can happen quickly.  The good news, though, is that technical trading factors will eventually bring mortgage rates back lower -- that just may not happen in the time frame in which you need it.

There's no time like the present, in other words.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. .

Single-family Housing Starts eased lower in June, falling by 0.7 percent from May. This represents a grand total of 3,000 units nationwide.

You may have heard the Housing Starts story differently, though. It depends where you get your news.  The majority of headlines call June's data a disaster. I respectfully disagree.

For home buyers of new homes, and home sellers of existing homes, the data may be quite favorable.

Housing Starts Is A Composite

A “housing start” is a home on which construction has started; technically, a ground-breaking. It applies to homes of all types -- single family, multi-units, and buildings like condos and/or apartments.

Unfortunately, though, when the press reports on Housing Starts, it rarely singles out single-family homes. Instead, it lumps every type of home into a single, giant reading.

As a result, news outlets are reporting June's Housing Starts down 5 percent — a somewhat misleading figure.

The market for single-family homes is where the large majority of Americans buy and sell. Very few people buy and/or build brand-new multi-unit homes, or giant apartment complexes, by comparison.

Single-family housing starts did what everyone expected it to do once the home buyer tax credit expired.  It dropped.

But only by a tad.

June's Housing Starts Data Is Statistically Suspect, Too

However, although the government reports June's Single-Family Housing Starts down slightly from May, because of something called margin of error, we can't put faith in the findings. June's margin of error was 10.7 percent.

As the Department of Commerce noted itself, there is no actual statistical evidence to prove the change in starts from May was different from zero.  The "true" change could be anywhere from -11.4 percent to + 10.0 percent.

That's a wide range.

Ignoring Margin Of Error, Home Buyers And Sellers Smile

If Housing Starts did, in fact, drop in June, it means that housing inventory should fall in Cincinnati, a move that supports local home values. To home sellers, this is good news because it shifts negotiation leverage away from buyers. Fewer homes for sale means less competition for foot traffic.

For home buyers buying new homes, the news is favorable, too.

June’s Housing Starts data helps explain why home builder confidence dropped to its lowest level since April 2009 which, in turn, should create an excellent opportunity to "buy new" on the cheap. Home builders don't like being saddled with inventory and will often offer free upgrades and other incentives to move product.

Additionally, mortgage rates are better since the Housing Starts data release.

Get A Pre-Approval For Your Home Purchase

Home buyers need pre-approvals to show that they're serious about buying, and that a mortgage lender can qualify them for the home in question. Start your pre-approval and we'll handle the rest from there.

Pre-approvals take 4 minutes by phone and are usually completed within an hour.

(Blog post licensed and adapted from Bring the Blog)

Credit scores matter.

Credit scores can mean the difference between a 4.25 percent and a 5.25 percent mortgage rate; a conforming mortgage and an FHA mortgage; an underwriting approval and an underwriting denial.

And most people know this. It doesn't stop them from keeping their credit scores under wraps, however. There seems to be a persistent belief among Americans that "having your credit pulled" is a bad thing.

In some instances, yes. In most instances, no. It's because not all credit applications are created equal.

At least, not in the eyes of the credit bureaus.

Having a mortgage company pull your credit is different from having Target do it.  To understand why, let's start with some credit scoring basics.

Credit Inquiries Are A Formal Process

A "credit inquiry" is a formal request to review a person's credit report.

Credit inquires are grouped with other traits into a credit-scoring category called "New Credit". New Credit represents a tiny 10 percent a person's complete credit score.  On the scale of 300-850, therefore, credit inquiries represent just a portion of complete category that accounts for a maximum of 85 FICO points.

Your credit score can't drop 100 points from a credit check.

Credit checks come in many flavors, but only 4 will change a person's credit score:

1. A credit check for a mortgage loan
2. A credit check for an auto loan
3. A credit check for a credit card application
4. A credit check for a store credit card, or consumer loan

These 4 types are singled out because, in each case, the initial credit inquiry is requested for the specific purpose of taking on more debt.  Extra debt increases the probability of credit default and credit scores drop as a result.

Even then, though, the risk of default varies by credit type.

A credit card application can be more damaging to a credit score than a mortgage application.  This is because credit card debts tend to revolve higher over time versus a mortgage which eventually pays down to $0.

All things equal, credit card applications harm your credit score much more than an application for a home loan.

A Credit Inquiry Lowers Your FICO By 5 Points

When compared to the other credit scoring elements, Credit Inquiries is a relative nothing.

In the official FICO scoring model, Payment History and Credit Utilization account for 65% of a score, combined, and the amount of time during which you've had credit to your name accounts for 15%.  These three areas are over-weighted because the bureaus are more concerned with what you've already done with your credit versus what you might do with more of it.

Your credit past is the best clue to your credit future.

It's one of two reasons why it's okay to give your social security number to as many lenders as you want. The impact of a credit inquiry is minuscule as compared to your history as a Model Credit Citizen.

A mortgage credit inquiry is estimated to lower a credit score by just 5 points.  Unfortunately, we'll never know for sure because the very act of examining the credit score causes it to move. In Physics, this is called the Heisenberg Principle.  On MTV, it's called The Jersey Shore Syndrome.

Put a camera on something, and it changes.

The Credit Bureaus Don't Hit Your FICO Twice

The second reason you should shop around with lenders is that -- unlike applying for multiple credit cards -- applying for multiple mortgages won't ding you for multiple, consumer-initiated inquiries.

Applying common sense: You might apply for 5 credit cards and use them all. You're won't be approved for 5 mortgages. As such, the credit bureaus have made it formal policy to permit "rate shopping".

Talk to as many lenders as you want in a 14-day time frame; have your credit checked as often as you'd like; compare rates and fees.  All of the inquiries will be lumped into a single application.

It's good for you and it's good for the bureaus. Your credit scores stay high and TransUnion, Equifax and Experian collect more fees from the banks.

Advice From The Credit Bureaus On Getting Low Rates

To promote rate shopping and to lessen The Fear of Credit Inquiry, the people behind the FICO brand spell out for you the best way to get the best mortgage rates possible:

1. If you want the best rate, you should "shop around" for it
2. Limit rate shopping to 14-day timespan to keep your credit scores high
3. Mortgage lenders need your FICO to give accurate rate quotes so give up your social security number

Metaphorically, not letting your lender see your FICO is like not letting your doctor check your blood pressure. You'll get a diagnosis when the appointment is over -- it just might not be the right one.

Start Your Mortgage Rate Shopping With A Free Rate Quote

Start your rate shopping now. and we'll start with your credit pull. From there, I'll get you a low mortgage rate to compare with other banks.

Looking to lock a mortgage rate? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Forecast Only

By way of disclosure, these mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages only. FHA streamline refinances are not covered, nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati, Ohio or Bethesda, Maryland, for example. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Florida, condotels in Chicago, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate predictions for the next week:

• 55% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 5% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 40% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching the reason Auto-Tune was invented. It's a double rainbow. OMG.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The 3-month rally in rates continues (until there's reason for it to end)."

Mortgage rates have been dropping since early-April. Why stop now?

Mortgage Rates Are Falling In Cincinnati. Still.

Next verse, same as the last verse. We've been talking mortgage rates falling for 3 months now.

Here's why it's happening. Mortgage rates are low, not because the housing market is strong, or because the U.S. economy is thriving, but because other nations are struggling and investors want to preserve their capital.

It's called "safe-haven buying". In uncertain times, investors shun risk and move cash to higher-quality assets.

The goal of safe haven buying is capital preservation. A small, safe return trumps the risk of losing it all. Almost like lemmings, investors have decided that the "safe" place to invest right now is in debt backed by the U.S. government. This includes mortgage-backed bonds, of course, which are the basis for conforming mortgage rates.

With the extra demand, bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall. This cycle continues until bond rates get too low for investors to want to buy them. At that point, the market usually reverses for the worse and rates rise.

If You Press Your Luck, You're Bound To Get Whammied

Low rates can't last forever. They just can't.

Today is not "the new normal" -- don't fool yourself into thinking it is. Someday, our children will study the Summer of 2010 in their finance books. What we're witnessing is unprecedented and unlikely to repeat.

Just like folks get nostalgic for the 80s and say, "Remember when you felt lucky to get a 16% mortgage rate?" with a laugh, they'll do the same about 2010. "Remember when rates were in the 4s?"

I mean, srsly, people.  The fours.  What are you waiting for?

In the last few days, "ideal" borrowers have seen their 5-year ARM pricing fall below 3.500 percent with 0 points; the 30-year fixed pricing below 4.375 percent. Really.

If the thought of a refinance has even crossed your mind, talk to your loan officer and get the math. No matter how long you've held your mortgage, there's a pretty good chance that a refinance can:

1. Lower your mortgage rate by a lot
2. Lower your mortgage payment substantially
3. Keep your out-of-pocket costs low

Just don't sit on it. Mortgage markets change rapidly, and without notice. We've seen big, quick rate spikes several times already this year and it could definitely happen again.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. Rates will fall in the next week, but by how much really? Don't be greedy. Be smart.

Last week, the Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 0.8 percent across 20 tracked markets. Then, the public-sector Federal Housing Finance Agency reached a similar conclusion.

They're both good news for housing, of course. But can we believe it?

Good Signs For Housing -- Values Are Rising

Reporting on a two-month lag, the government's Home Price Index shows home values up 0.8 percent in April, buoyed by the expiring federal home buyer tax credit and low mortgage rates.  It's a positive signal for a recovering housing market in Cincinnati and everywhere else.

But just because the Home Price Index says home values are rising, that doesn't mean they are. The Home Price Index methodology is flawed on multiple fronts.

The Flaws Of The Home Price Index Revealed

The biggest flaw is that the Home Price Index reports on a 60-day delay. A two-month lag like this turns the HPI into a trailing indicator for the housing market instead of a forward-looking one. If you're a home buyer looking for direction, HPI won't give it to you -- look to your real estate agent instead.

Second, HPI only accounts for home values in which the home's attached mortgage is backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  Therefore, as the FHA market share grows, fewer homes are getting included in the HPI sample set, and HPI values may skew high or low.

And, lastly, the Home Price Index doesn't account for new home sales -- only repeat ones.  This, too, eliminates a major segment of the market.

The Home Price Index Is The Best Of What's Around

All of that said, though, the Home Price Index remains important to housing.  It's the most comprehensive, thorough home valuation model in print and that fact can't be ignored.  That, and the HPI has been giving strong readings since the start of year.

So here we are.  It's July. By now, the market's bottom has passed and sellers are regaining their negotiating power. However, homes remain relatively inexpensive and mortgage rates are absurdly low.

It's an excellent time to get off the fence and make that offer.

Get a free, no-obligation quote on a mortgage. or call me at 513-443-2020.  I answer my calls and answer all my own emails.

Looking to lock a mortgage rate? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Forecast Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA streamline refinances nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati, Ohio or Leesburg, Virginia, for example. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and the 5-10 Properties program may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the survey panel's mortgage rate predictions:

• 33% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 11% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 56% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this compilation of the 100 Best Movie Insults Of All-Time.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Rates ease lower, but don't get caught watching the paint dry. It's time to lock."

Mortgage rates have been falling for 14 weeks and it's easy to get complacent at a time like this. Don't.

The World's Pain Is YOUR Mortgage Rate Gain

Mortgage rates are lower than they've been in history.  You can thank the rest of the world for that.  What started as a general concern that Greece would default on its debt has spilled over to the entire Eurozone region.

Furthermore, there's doubts about the strength of China's recovery and with each additional drip of negative news, investors grow increasingly skittish.

It's a global gut check and stock markets are suffering. Wall Street is selling equities and indices are making new lows.  The early-year rally is stalling and bond markets are making gains.

Rate shoppers are winning big.

With government-backed mortgage bonds in high demand, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are now below 4.500 for folks willing to pay discount points and ARMs are now posting in the 2s.  Yes, the twos.

Who could ask for anything more?

Don't Be Greedy. Don't Be Greedy. Don't Be Greedy.

There's always a choice, brotha.

1. You can wait for mortgage rates to fall even lower
2. You can lock today's low rates, the proverbial bird-in-hand

I can't tell you what's best for you, but if the question of a refinance crosses your mind -- if even for moment -- make sure you talk to your loan officer to get the math.  No matter how long you've held your mortgage, there's a pretty good chance you can (1) Lower your mortgage rate, (2) Lower your mortgage payment, and (3) Keep your out-of-pocket costs to a minimum.

And while we're on the topic: Having a conversation with your friend or family member about "mortgage rates" is not the same thing as talking to a loan officer.  No offense, but Aunt Ginny just ain't plugged in to mortgages, mortgage bonds, and mortgage pricing.

Mortgage markets change rapidly, and without notice. We've seen huge rate spikes more than a few times this year so far it could definitely happen again.

When rates start to rise, they'll rise quickly.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing, and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move. Rates will fall in the next week, but by how much really? Don't be greedy. Be smart.

In June, for the first time since December 2009, the U.S. workforce shrank. Sort of.

Jobs AND Unemployment Rate Down

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy shed 125,000 jobs last month, and the Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.5 percent.

And, no -- those figures aren't contradictory.

Because the Unemployment Rate measures the number of people looking for work as compared to the total workforce size, as people stop "looking", it follows that the Unemployment Rate falls, too.

Fewer people are looking for jobs.

So Far, 857,000 New Jobs This Year

At first glance, the jobs report looks weak but a deeper look shows something different.

Excluding the 225,000 government Census workers that recently left the workforce, the total number of employed persons actually grew by 83,000 in June. That’s 50,000 more working Americans as compared to May.

Plus, since the start of the year, the U.S. workforce has grown by 857,000.

Why Jobs Matter To Mortgage Rates

Jobs growth is closely tied to economic growth.  This is because working Americans have more disposable income which, in turn, stokes consumer spending, the biggest part of the U.S. economy by a long-shot.

Job growth is better for the economy than job loss.

So, as consumer spending grows and lifts the economy, Wall Street mentality tends to shift from "safety of principal" (i.e. bond markets) toward "return on principal" (i.e. stock markets).  A move like this is bad for rate shoppers in Cincinnati because falling bond demand is linked to higher mortgage rates.

Take Advantage. The Market Is Missing The Signals.

A strong jobs report should cause conforming mortgage rates to rise. And, if we peel back the layers, June's jobs report was strong.  But Wall Street doesn't see it that way.

Wall Street is focusing on the headline number -- 125,000 jobs lost -- and ignoring the bigger picture. Don't let that be your loss, though.  For now, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are below the magical 4.500 percent marker for which so many homeowners waited to refinance.

5-year ARMs are available under 3 percent.  It's unfathomable.

Take advantage of the lowest mortgage rates in history.

ARMs Below 3 Percent And Other Amazing Rates

Whether you live in Cincinnati, Chicago, or anywhere else, mortgage rates are amazingly low right now. If I wasn't knee-deep in mortgages each day of my life, I don't think I'd believe the rates were "real", actually.  It's almost ridiculous.

No matter what you think about your mortgage qualifications -- too little equity, too little income, too big of a loan size -- take 5 minutes out of your day to call your loan officer. Find out whether you qualify for a mortgage at today's rates.  Sure, rates may fall lower, but, then again, they might not.

Call my office at 513-443-2020 to get your rate, or .

I gave a 2-part interview with Beejal Patel of First Business. This is the first part.

Beejal and I talk about the economy, home sales and mortgage rates.

• The tax credit extension to September 30, 2010
• Why the Existing Home Sales data is better than the "sales prices" show
• Mortgage rates are lower than what the media reports

The interview is 3 minutes and we cover a lot of ground.  Call or with your follow-up questions, or to lock a mortgage rate as soon as possible.

Click here to watch Part II of the interview.