Thanks for visiting The Mortgage Reports. To stay absolutely current on mortgage markets and important guideline changes, be sure to take my free daily email alerts.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

Conventional, Conforming Mortgage Rates

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to North Carolina or Texas mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 57% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 43% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching the only working mousetrap ever made than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Home buyers are out in force. The economy wins. Rate shoppers lose."

Purchase activity is up. Talk with your friends in real estate, talk with your friends in mortgage, talk with, really, somewhat involved in the real estate business.  Home buyers are out and they're writing contracts.

It's good news for the economy and bad news for mortgage rates.

When You Buy A Home, You Buy "Stuff", Too

To understand why housing matters to mortgage rates and the economy, just think about the last time you moved and the purchases you made.  Especially if you moved to a bigger place.

Did you buy new furniture?  What about new blinds, drapes and window dressings? A new television (or three)? Not to mention the countless trips to Home Depot for little things like air filters, light bulbs, and key copies.

All of these purchases fall under the "consumer spending" category and consumer spending accounts for 70% of the economy.

More people moving means more consumer spending. And there's a lot more people moving.

Geopolitics Can't Keep Mortgage Rates Down

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve ends its $1.25 trillion mortgage market commitment this month and, by all accounts, mortgage rates should be rising in advance of it. Instead, they're falling.

As Greece deals with debt worries, and China deals with inflation, and the U.S. dollar gains, mortgage markets have been a sound place to invest.  The extra demand for bonds is pushing mortgage rates down. But this rally rooted in geopolitics -- not in hard data.

It can't last.  Especially with the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

There'll be no rate changes from the Fed, but look for more optimistic verbiage from the Fed with respect to the economy's current and future prospects. The Fed speaks in data and data points to recovery.

Rate Increases Will Happen Quickly

If you need a rate lock, consider taking it this week.  The timing is right and locking a rate can never be wrong.

That said, you'll probably want some help to lock at the exact right moment. Mortgage rates change all the time. Make sure you're not locking too soon. It can be the difference between saving 1/8 percent or losing it. You're going to want your loan officer to help you with timing.

Or, if it's easier for you, with your situation and we'll get you set up with the lowest rate we can.

Credit scoring is a huge part of the mortgage world.

A given credit score can mean the difference between a 5 percent rate and a 6 percent rate; a conventional mortgage and an FHA mortgage; an underwriting approval and an underwriting denial.

And yet, there's a persistent belief among Americans that "having your credit checked" is a bad thing.

In some instances, yes. In most instances, though, no.

See, not all credit applications are created equal. At least, not in the eyes of the bureaus.

A formal credit pull by a mortgage company is treated differently from applying to get 10% off at Target.  To understand why, let's start with some credit scoring basics.

Credit Inquiries Are A Formal Process

A "credit inquiry" is a formal request to review a person's credit report.

Credit inquires are grouped with other traits into a credit-scoring category called "New Credit". New Credit represents 10 percent a person's complete credit score.  On the scale of 300-850, therefore, credit inquiries represent a tiny portion of a maximum of 85 points to a FICO.

There are many times of credit inquiries, but really only 4 of the set can impact a person's credit score:

1. A credit check for a mortgage loan
2. A credit check for an auto loan
3. A credit check for a credit card application
4. A credit check for a store credit card, or consumer loan

These 4 types are singled out because, in each case, the inquiry is made by the applicant in order to get access to more debt.  Because extra debt increases the probability of default, credit inquiries can sometimes foreshadow trouble.

Even then, however, the risk of default varies by application type.

For example, credit card applications can be more damaging to a credit score than a mortgage application.  This is because credit card debts tend to revolve higher over time versus a mortgage which eventually pays down to $0.

So, all things equal, a credit card application will harm your credit score more than an application for a home loan.

A Credit Inquiry Lowers Your FICO By 5 Points

When compared to the other credit scoring elements, Credit Inquiries is a relative nothing.

In the official FICO scoring model, Payment History and Credit Utilization account for 65% of a score, combined, and the amount of time during which you've had credit to your name accounts for 15%.  These three areas are over-weighted because the bureaus are more concerned with what you've already done with your credit versus what you might do with more of it.

Your credit past is the best clue to your credit future and it's one of two reasons why it's okay to give your social security number to as many lenders as you want. The impact of a credit inquiry is tiny next to the value of being a Model Credit Citizen.

A mortgage credit inquiry is estimated to lower a credit score by just 5 points.

Unfortunately, we'll never know for sure because the very act of examining the credit score causes it to move. In Physics, this is called the Heisenberg Principle.  On MTV, it's called The Jersey Shore Syndrome.  Put a camera on something, and it changes.

The Credit Bureaus Don't Hit Your FICO Twice

The second reason you should shop around with lenders is that -- unlike applying for multiple credit cards -- applying for multiple mortgages won't count as multiple, consumer-initiated inquiries. This is a common thing.

You might apply for 5 credit cards and use them all. You're not going to be approved for 5 mortgages.

As such, the credit bureaus have made it formal policy to permit "rate shopping".  Talk to as many lenders as you want in a 14-day time frame; have your credit checked as often as you'd like; compare rates and fees.  All of the inquiries will be lumped into a single application.

It's good for you and it's good for the bureaus. Your credit scores stay high and TransUnion, Equifax and Experian collect more fees from the banks.

Advice From The Credit Bureaus On Getting Low Rates

To promote rate shopping and to lessen The Fear of Credit Inquiry, the people behind the FICO brand spell out for you the best way to get the best mortgage rates possible:

1. If you want the best rate, you should "shop around"
2. Limit rate shopping to 14-day timespan to keep your credit scores high
3. Mortgage lenders can't give accurate rate quotes without a credit score so give up your social security number

Metaphorically, not letting your lender see your FICO is like not letting your doctor check your blood pressure. You'll get a diagnosis when the appointment is over -- it just might not be the right one.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

Conventional, Conforming Mortgage Rates

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati or Chicago mortgage rates. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 43% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 57% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching the only working mousetrap ever made than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Markets adjust to Life After Fed Intervention."

We can say it a thousand times and it would still be a thousand times too few -- the Federal Reserve is withdrawing its mortgage market support March 31, 2010.  Indeed, the Fed's barely a player even now as its intervention winds down to nothing.

Last week, it bought just $11 billion worth. And here's why it matters.

The Biggest Bond Buyer Is Going Bye-Bye

Since the end of 2008, the Federal Reserve has been the biggest open-market purchaser of mortgage bonds and the net impact of that intervention is lower mortgage rates by 1 percent. In other words, mortgage rates are 5 percent right now. They'd be 6 percent without the Fed.

"Without the Fed" starts in 27 days.

Mortgage rates have been low lately, and falling. It's unexpected.  Also, it's easy to get lulled into thinking that rates are down because markets are shrugging off the Fed's deadline.  Don't make that mistake.

Mortgage rates are lower for a few reasons, all of which increase demand for U.S. mortgage bonds.  More demand mean higher bonds prices and, therefore, lower mortgage rates.

1. Greece is having debt issues, pushing investors to buy "safe" securities like bonds
2. Economic growth is steady, but precariously balanced. Without clarity, investors seek safety.
3. Rumors that the Fed (or another agency) will extend the program beyond its original expiration date.

Don't expect these conditions to last.

They've been lucky so far but, pretty soon, mortgage rate shoppers are soon to face the music. You don't want to be on the wrong side of this bet. Rate jumps will be fast and fierce.

Rate Hikes Will Be Fast And Fierce

If you need a rate lock, take your chips off the table and get it done.

That said, locking mortgages is a timing game and you'll still want some help to get it right. On some days, rates will over-react higher, and on other days, they'll retreat.  You're going to want your loan officer to offer some coaching.  Call "your guy" or, if it's easier for you, with your situation.

I handle all of my own mail and I would love to get you a good rate. It's what I do best.

Plus, my bank has good, low mortgage rates. Just ask me about it.

Mortgage rates were more volatile in February than in January, making mortgage rate shopping a little bit more difficult.  Lenders averaged 1.55 rate sheets per day.

What Is A Mortgage Rate Sheet?

A rate sheet is a mortgage bank's "menu". It lists the rate-and-points combination for every product available. Some lender rate sheets are 1 page long; some are 10 pages or more. They include prices for products including:

• 30-year, 20-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages
• Short-term ARMs like 1-year and 3-year products
• Long-term ARMs like 5-year, 7-year and 10-year products
• All variations of jumbo and super jumbo mortgages
• The complete line of FHA and VA mortgages
• Loans for condotels and non-warrantable condos

Rate sheets change with the market and although last month's rate sheets were relatively change-free as compared to last summer, there were some interesting footnotes.

Under The Surface, Not So Tame

February's mortgage market could be categorized as "on edge". For the most part, rates didn't change intra-day.  It was common for lenders to issue rate sheets in the morning and stick to their pricing through market close.

In February, rates held firm 13 out of 20 days -- 65% of the time. That's more than double December 2009's frequency and the highest of the last 2 years.

On days in which rates did change, though, they changed a lot. There were two days on which rates changed 3 times and one day on which rates changed 4 times.

Prior to last month, we hadn't seen a 4-sheet day since October 2009.

Mortgage Rates Will Change Rapidly In March

As the United States fortifies its economy with slow, steady growth, and as the Federal Reserve withdraws its support for mortgage markets, mortgage rates are poised to spike.  However, sporadic reports of economic weakness have undermined that eventuality.

If you've been floating a mortgage rate in 2010, you've played with fire and not been burned. Going forward, get out the turnout gear. Rates are going to rise -- and they're going to rise quickly.

Be ready for it because you won't see the rate hike in the news until it's too late.  You won't see it in real-time.

But I will.

Get Rate Sheet Updates As They're Happening

As a loan officer, I track mortgage data that's unavailable to the public, and I summarize it online via my Twitter stream and occasionally on Facebook. I send alerts before new rate sheets come out.

Furthermore, if you're actively rate shopping in Cincinnati or Chicago or somewhere else that I lend, make sure to . I work for a self-funded bank and my bank's rate sheets are often cheaper as compared to my peers.

(Author's Note: Thank you, Jake Planton, for your help with research)

People search for mortgage rates on Google.  That's not news.  They type in something like "Cincinnati mortgage rates" and then comb through the results in search of "today's rate".

Except Google doesn't give rates. Google gives links.

Links to random websites or elaborate sieves meant to capture eyeballs and generate applications.  The problem is, most people shopping for rates just want information -- they don't want to be sold something. Not yet, at least.

You can't window shop for mortgages on Google

You can't window shop Google for mortgage rates and it's frustrating.

This is because searching for a mortgage isn't like searching for a book.  You can't eliminate the information asymmetry inherent in mortgages; know the price before you step in the store, so to speak. You really can't know if you're getting the "guaranteed lowest rate".

In the mortgage markets, prices are elusive.

However, in doing the research, people learn a lot about mortgages.

• They learn that mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed bonds and not the 10-year Treasury Note
• They learn how changes in the Fed Funds Rate change mortgage rates
• They learn that mortgage rates are as ever-changing as stock prices

Beyond that, though, it's an information abyss.

Freddie Mac's weekly survey is instantly out-of-date

When you're looking for mortgage rates, there's no crawler on Bloomberg; no ticker on Google Finance; no section in the newspaper.  Sooner or later, therefore, everyone trips into the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.  It's one of the most widely-circulated mortgage rate surveys in the country.

Published since 1971, the Freddie Mac survey is the basis for national mortgage rate news, and for Home Affordability studies, and for congressional research, and about anything else mortgage-rate related.  The study is flawed in a big way, however. Huge.

The problem is in the survey's methodology.

According to Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey results are collected Monday through Wednesday, then published to the public Thursday. By design, therefore, the survey lumps mortgage market activity spread across 3 days into 1 single point of data.

Survey results are skewed, therefore, based on the when survey responders get back to Freddie Mac.

Last week, this point was painfully clear. Mortgage rates were down Tuesday morning, but rode the rocket higher Wednesday and Thursday.  It was the worst week for mortgage rates since late-December, actually.  And Freddie Mac missed it -- its survey was compiled before rates went bad.

So, Freddie Mac reported 30-year fixed mortgage rates down by 0.04% from the week prior.  Real mortgage pricing, however, showed rates up three-eighths.

A workaround : How to find actual mortgage rates online

What's a rate shopper to do? Well, for one, stop looking for rates on Google. Consider giving applications to a handful of loan officers and let them track your rates for you. A loan officer can (and will) tell you about your real-time pricing if you ask.

Next, add my Twitter feed to your "online research" library. If you've never been on Twitter, it's ridiculously easy and you can have my near-real-time updates pumped right to your mobile phone, if you'd like.

And, lastly, remember that mortgage rates change all day long. A quote issued in the morning won't be valid in the afternoon.  You have to stay on your toes if you want be ahead of market changes and lock the best possible rate.

In Cincinnati or anywhere else.

(Image adapted from Freddie Mac)

Science experiments can be excellent metaphors at times.

Thursday, shortly after the markets closed, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point increase to the Discount Rate.  The Discount Rate is now 0.750%. Mortgage markets are selling off on the news.

The Era of Low Mortgage Rates may be officially over.

The Psychological Impact Of The Discount Rate

For some context, it's important to understand what the Fed's Discount Rate is and, more specifically, what it isn't.

The Discount Rate is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve charges to banks when banks borrow money from it. Banks typically borrow money from the Fed to beef up their cash reserves because all banks are required to keep as minimum level of cash-on-hand.

The Discount Rate is not the rate at which banks borrow money from each other -- that's the Fed Funds Rate.  Nor is the Discount Rate the benchmark rate at which banks lend money to consumers and businesses -- that's Prime Rate.

Discount Rate is just one of the Fed's many tools to slow or speed the economy and, as of yesterday, it's taking steps to slow growth down.  Or, at least, push some responsibility back to banks.  There's no direct impact on consumers for a move like this, but it's the indirect impact we need to worry about.

In raising the Discount Rate, the Fed implies that the U.S. is strong enough to withstand a shock.  It's the signal for which Wall Street has been waiting.

Mortgage Rates Are Breaking Higher

See, since late-2008, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have moved within a very tight range. With few exceptions, never more than 5.375% and never less than 4.875%.   This was because the bond markets harbored doubt about whether the "green shoots" of the economy were for real. Yesterday, the Fed answered that "Are We?" and "Aren't We?" question.

Clearly, we are.  And that brings us to the science experiment.

Much like a super-saturated solution, the mortgage-backed bond market has been in precarious balance, one crystal away from complete transformation.  Well, Thursday, February 18, 2010, the Fed introduced that crystal.  Loan officers everywhere will forever remember yesterday as the Last Day of Low Mortgage Rates.

What To Expect From Your Loan Officer

The Federal Reserve won't make policy changes over the next few weeks, months, or maybe even quarters, but the damage is done. Bond markets are played 12-18 months into the future and the Fed's move to raise the Discount Rate has traders to change their expectations what's coming down the pipe.

Mortgage rates will rise in response.

If you're in the process of shopping for a mortgage or buying a home, the longer you wait to commit, the higher your mortgage rate will likely be.  Call or and I will send you a rate quote based on what the market is doing today.

Rates are changing very quickly and every day counts.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati or Chicago mortgage rates.  Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos and condotels may be excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's mortgage rates predictions:

• 27% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 73% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching The Greatest Network Television Weather Forecast of All-Time than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Markets are in a Tug-O-War -- it's Geopolitics versus The Fed."

There's lot of reasons why mortgage rates change -- revised expectations for the economy, new Fed monetary policy, and psychological factors on Wall Street are among them.

In total, there are hundreds of influences on the day-to-day mortgage rates you and I see from the banks.  It's part of why predicting mortgage rates so challenging.  We can never know which of the hundreds are influences are about to come into play.

We can break influences down into two parts -- obvious, and non-obvious.

Obvious influences are inflation data, housing stats, and job markets.  These we can prepare for; can be proactive about. And, indeed, Wall Street does.  The preparation is why mortgage rates tend trend higher or lower heading into a "major" news release.  The movement is the market squaring its bets.

It's the non-obvious factors, though, that really screw things up.

• An "emergency" change to monetary or fiscal policy, at home or abroad
• A sudden change in the political climate, at home or abroad
• An outbreak of -- or an end to -- war, terror, disease or the like, at home or abroad

In other words, anything that "shocks" the global financial system.

There was a terrific example of such a shock two weeks ago. One day, everyone woke up and suddenly thought Greece couldn't meet it country's debt obligation. The thought drove fear through the Eurozone, then through the broader market, and eventually, it led to safe-haven buying that propped up U.S. mortgage markets.

There's other recent examples, too. Like when the Fed initially announced its support for the mortgage-backed bond market in November 2008; or, when inflation numbers ran much hotter-than-expecter near the end of May 2009.

It happened yesterday, too.

The Fed released the minutes from its January 2010 meeting Wednesday afternoon and there was an underlying message that "change is coming".  Markets didn't expect to hear that just yet and it sent mortgage markets reeling.  Rates spiked by an eighth-percent within minutes of The Minutes' release.

As a rate shopper, unexpected news is frightening. It makes markets do things you wouldn't expect.  And that's why we're calling for a draw over the next week. The likelihood of Eurozone debt concerns leading mortgage rates lower will be offset by the tendency of rates to rise when the Fed starts talking strength.

That said, if you need a rate locked in the next week or so, consider doing it sooner rather than later.  The Fed's exit from the mortgage market is going to push rates up and that exit's in less than 5 weeks.  It's time to get a move on.

Locking mortgages is a timing game and you'll want some help to get it right. Call your loan officer or, if it's easier for you, with your situation. I handle all of my own email and I am happy to get you a good rate lock. It's what I do best.

Plus, my bank has good, low mortgage rates. Just ask me about it.

I gave a television interview with Beejal Patel of First Business this week and we covered a lot of ground topics like housing, mortgage rates, and the FHA.

In this 5-minute spot, I answer:

• What will happen to mortgage rates after the Fed's market withdrawal?
• How will rising mortgage rates impact the housing market?
• What will happen to home prices after the tax credit expires?
• How does the jobs report relate to mortgage rates?
• What changes are coming down the pipe from the FHA?
• What are investor overlays and why do they matter to home buyers?

Like I said, we cover a lot of ground.  Thankfully, it's easy to digest.

If after watching the piece, you have some follow-up questions for me, and I'll reply back to you.

Recapping the FOMC statement from January 27, 2010 and what it means for mortgage rates.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati or Chicago.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 36% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 36% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 28% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent on Greg Rutter's Definitive List of The 99 Things You Should Have Already Experienced On The Internet Unless You're a Loser or Old or Something than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Be patient. The market is in Correction Mode after December's awful results."

Now, if you were lucky enough to lock a 30-year fixed mortgage rate sometime between Thanksgiving and December 1, you got an awesome rate, really.  You're probably sub-5 percent and maybe didn't pay any closing costs to get there.

Pat yourself on the back if you got that rate because after the first of the month, December turned into a veritable mortgage market nightmare. Between December 1 and December 31, 2009, mortgage pricing deteriorated by more than 300 basis points.

100 basis points equals 1 percent so the math looks like this:

• December 1: You could lock a 4.750 percent, 30-year fixed with 0 points
• December 31: You could lock a 4.750 percent, 30-year fixed at a cost of 3 points

Owie.  Having to 3 points to get the same rate 30 days later is a lot of points.

And, the thing is, there really wasn't much reason for mortgage rates to get so bad, so quickly.  Sure, jobs data got stronger and the housing market showed more improvement, but there wasn't much else.

In fact, you could argue the opposite side and say that rates should have fallen.

During December, the U.S. dollar improved, retail sales were weak, and key inflation figures was tame.  Even the Federal Reserve gave the economy Even Steven report after its December 16 meeting.

Instead of responding to this type of data, mortgage markets suffered at the hands of momentum plays combining with low trading volume. The markets fell farther than they should have.  They're going to correct this month.

We've had 3 trading days so far this year. Rates -- along with volume -- have been improving.  It's a correction. Markets are returning to normal, whatever that means.  But, as they do, rates should settle in a little lower than what we've seeing right now.

If you can afford to be patient with a pending conforming mortgage rate locks, try it. You'll be rewarded.  The key, though, is knowing when to stop being patient.

For that, you may need some help.

If you don't have a loan officer you can call up for advice, know that you can always call me. Or, , whichever is easier.  I handle all of my own email and I would happy to help you lock your mortgage rate.

My bank has good, low rates and we're very responsive to our clients.

Oil prices are on the move, crossing $80 per barrel for the first time in a year.  The charge can't be coming at a worse time for mortgage rate shoppers.

With Wall Street already in debate about inflation, the surge in crude just adds fuel to fire.

Meanwhile, you may have that noticed gas prices are up this week.  A lot.  Use this as a clue -- higher mortgage rates are coming.

Better than any other "everyday cost", rising gas prices often foreshadow rising mortgage rates.  The relationship between the two indirect, but worthy of an examination.

First, the catalyst.  Oil prices rise.  This happens for one of 3 reasons:

1. Growing economies are expected to consume more oil (i.e. more demand for oil)
2. The world's oil exporters reduce drilling capacity (i.e. less supply of oil)
3. The U.S. dollar loses value and oil is bought/paid for using U.S. dollars

Today, oil prices are rising for all three of these reasons.

As oil prices rise, higher energy costs spill over into everyday life, creating inflationary pressures. Rising gas prices are not the cause of inflation, mind you. They're a symptom of inflation.

Another symptom is the U.S. dollar's devaulation.

Meanwhile, because the U.S. dollar is denomination in which mortgage bonds are priced, when the U.S. dollar loses value, mortgage bonds lose value, too. This makes them a less-attractive investment and bond prices drop.

When mortgage bond prices fall, mortgage rates rise.

Inflation is not yet in bloom in the U.S., but the seeds are planted.  Oil prices are spiking, the dollar is fading, and the government is printing a lot of money.

Mortgage rates are up 0.500 percent from their early-October lows.  They'll likely tack on another 0.500 percent before the New Year.  If you're wondering whether it's the right time to lock, the answer is "yes".  You may have missed the market bottom, but today's rates are terrific compared to what we should see just 8 weeks from now.

To get rate quotes and weigh your choices, so we can talk about your mortgage. I answer all my own emails.

Thursday, Freddie Mac published its weekly mortgage market survey.

The report showed 30-year fixed mortgage rates sub-5 percent, near all-time lows.  Versus October 2008, they're down 1.07%.

The press was eager to report a story like this -- mostly because anytime mortgage rates below 5.000 percent, it makes for good copy.

But for rate shoppers in Cincinnati and Chicago, by the time Friday's business section was delivered, the Freddie Mac survey was woefully out-of-date.  Mortgage rates had already started to rise on a series of newsworthy notes:

• Australia lifted its interest rates, the first major economy to make a move like that
• Members of the Federal Reserve hinted that the Fed may raise rates soon
• Concerns of inflation crept back into the Wall Street psyche

Combined, these elements led to a furious mortgage market sell-off so that by 4:00 PM ET Friday, mortgage rates were posting 3/8 higher than what Freddie Mac said they should be.

Rate shoppers get angry when stuff like that happens.  And, it seems to happen a lot.

Weekly surveys like the Freddie Mac report are good for watching long-term trends in mortgage rates, but they stink for when you need immediate "Lock or Float" advice. Remember, mortgage rates change every few hours so rate surveys are often "stale" before they're even published.

One easy (and free) way to track what's happening with mortgage rates is to fan my Facebook page and/or follow me on Twitter. I post markest updates several times per day and often alert before rates get worse.

From the time I advise to lock rates, you'll generally have less than 15 minutes to contact your lender and commit.  If you've already got a loan application on file, that's plenty of time to execute the trade.

If you don't have an application on file, though, or have trouble reaching your loan officer at a moment's notice, your chances of locking the rate drop dramatically.  It takes time to give an application, issue an approval, and position for locking.  It can take even more time for a lender to check his voicemails and return a call.

Mortgage rates wait for nobody.

I monitor and lock mortgage rates for my clients and do it with an automated system. If you're not getting the service you want or expect from your current lender, call or . I'll manage your rate lock for you and can probably save you some money in the process, too.

Planning to move in the next few years? Here's a simple way to save some money.  Convert your 30-year fixed rate mortgage to a 5-year ARM.

It's playing the mortgage system to your advantage.

I've been a loan officer for long enough to know that homeowners around the country -- in places like Cincinnati, Chicago, Denver, or wherever -- will willingly pay a higher interest rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgages than for comparable 5-year ARM.  This is because 30-year fixed rate mortgages guarantee unchanging mortgage payments for as long as the loan is alive.

To a lot of folks, the predictability of a fixed-rate mortgage is worth its premium price -- even at a cost of tens of thousands of dollars over the life of a loan.

But plans change.

Families grow, families shrink, and people relocate.  And when you no longer need the security of a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, the "premium price" you so willingly paid begins to look like a giant waste of money.

Consider an ARM instead.

Adjustable-rate mortgages frighten some people, but they're perfect for a relocating household.  Because the "beginning interest rate" of a traditional ARM doesn't change for a fixed period of time -- say, 5 years -- the risk of "outliving" the initial interest rate is very, very small. All the while, you're saving money on your mortgage payment.

Replacing a 30-year fixed rate mortgage from 2005 with a 5-year ARM at today's rates would save 20% per month.

But before you rush to refinance, there's a few caveats.  You have to do your refi right:

1. Your ARM should be a true, zero-cost loan. Ask your lender to pay all of your fees.
2. Your loan balance to stay exactly as-is -- don't "pad" it with cash-out

By taking both of these precautions, you will maximize your monthly mortgage savings.

Furthermore, you'll want to make sure your home doesn't sell within 5 months of the refinance to an ARM or else your lender may "recapture" its waived fees from you.

For soon-to-move households, there's no reason to keep a high-cost mortgage when a perfectly suitable low-cost mortgage is waiting.  And, right now, with ARMs priced really well, it's a perfect time to explore what's available.  Your life changes, after all -- your mortgage needs change with it.

To see what a switch to an adjustable-rate mortgage could do for your monthly mortgage, call or .  If you have a copy of your mortgage statement handy, you can send it along, too.  We'll want that information to get you as precise figures as possible.

The August jobs report was released this morning.

Unemployment rose to 9.7 percent nationwide as employers shed another 216,000 jobs.  The news may not be as bad as it first seems.

Despite ongoing job losses and a rising Unemployment Rate, the jobs report reinforces the notion that the recession may be ending soon, if it hasn't already.

This is because Wall Street tends to treat employment data as a lagging economic indicator.

1. Businesses are slow to hire new workers when the economy is improving
2. Businesses are slow to fire existing workers when the economy is worsening

Because of this pattern, the monthly jobs report rarely reflects the "right now" of the U.S. economy and Wall Street knows it.  More often, the report reflects the economy as it existed several months ago and, based on data, the economy appears to have broken out of its funk in April or May.

Consider these 2 examples of employment as a lagging indicator:

1. Job losses peaked in January 2009 -- 4 months after the September 2008 Financial Crisis
2. Job losses peaked in October 2001, 1 month before the 2001 recession ended.  Jobs finally turned positive in October 2002 -- 12 months into the subsequent recovery

In other words, jobs data doesn't so much tell us about today as it tells us about yesterday.  It's why mortgage rate are improving this morning. Wall Street expected the jobs data to be a little bit stronger than what it was.

All the talk of rising home values and consumer confidence levels may have left investors too optimistic about jobs and consumer spending.  Today, they're shifting expectations and spelling good news for home buyers and rate shoppers.

On a lightly-traded day because of the holiday weekend, mortgage rates are improving.

If recent history is an indicator, Labor Day should bring lower mortgage rates with it.

Data from Freddie Mac since 2006 shows that 30-year fixed mortgage rates tend to elevate through the warmer months of May, June, July and August before settling lower into the fall season. This year has stayed true to form.

After tacking on a half-percent post-Memorial Day, mortgage rates never quite recovered and sit near their highest levels of the year.  Rates look poised to dip, however.

1. The U.S. dollar is strengthening internationally, boosting the appeal of dollar-denominated securities. This includes mortgage-backed bonds.
2. The U.S. is showing signs of economic recovery and it's making the recovery without introducing inflationary pressures
3. Equity sell-offs are pushing freed cash into the mortgage-backed bond market

All 3 forces combine to pressure mortgage rates lower -- even as the Federal Reserve winds down its $750 billion mortgage market intervention.

September 1, conventional mortgage rates fell by 1/8.

As a rate shopper, it's tough to know what's happening with mortgage rates in real-time because the CNBC ticker doesn't show MBS pricing like it does for the Dow Jones Industrial Average or for stocks.   Even the U.S. Treasury market fails as a proxy these days.

Mortgage pricing is a complex beast and, unfortunately, Wall Street's raw pricing is protected.

To keep up with rates on your own, follow my feed on Twitter.  I update with market movements several times daily and, because I know how the banks play The Rate Game, I like to signal when a mortgage rate change coming down the pike.  Generally, I'm giving about 30 minutes notice.

This 90-second video discusses gives some rate-locking strategies in advance of this Friday's jobs report. With the housing market mending and Wall Street cutting the week short because of Labor Day, national employment statistics are the new economic bellweather.

The August jobs report is due Friday, September 4. In advance of the data, register and lock a mortgage rate for purchase or refinance by calling or .

This 1-minute video discusses today's mortgage rates, "pattern" trading, and why today may be a good day to get locked in.  If you've been reading this site for weeks in search of rate lock clues, this video spells it out for you.

To get locked, call me or . We'll get you protected before rates start changing.

Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or reverse mortgage. For rate quotes, .

The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 23% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 38% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 39% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I predict that rates will decrease over the next 30 days.

My advice not even be appropriate for your particular situation and I'm not always accurate besides. Heck, you may find watching the world's coolest waterslide to be a better use of your time.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Near-term strength in the U.S. dollar eases mortgage rates lower."

Mortgage markets are a sensitive beast.  Just the slightest breeze and they're all shook up.  It's one reason why this blog covers such a wide berth.  Jobs, housing, consumer confidence, spending -- it's all relevant.  Each moves markets in its own right.  And when mortgage markets move, mortgage rates move.

Meanwhile, another factor in the mortgage market is the long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar.

Mortgage bond repayments are made in U.S. currency, so as the value of the dollar rises relative to other nations' currencies, the relative value of a mortgage bond repayment rises, too.  A 5 percent return can become a 6 percent return if your home currency is the Euro, as an example.

Math like this tends to attract foreign investment.

Indeed, this is what we're seeing.  At the recent treasury auctions, record foreign interest for dollar-backed bonds has helped buoy the market and keep rates low.

So long as the economy levels off and starts to expand, this trend could continue.

Don't forget, though -- there's a lot of factors that influence mortgage rates.  It's not just the U.S. dollar.  If it was, mortgage rates wouldn't be in constant flux like they are.

If you're not working with a loan officer and want to work with me, I can help you try to time a market bottom and, at the very least, make sure you're getting clear advice.  I'm never too far from my phone or so just reach out anytime.

Or, you get more passive about it.  Watch me on Twitter.  I post market updates throughout the day. Send a message to @mortgagereports so I know you're listening.

What's the difference between a good mortgage rate and a great mortgage rate?  Timing.

Mortgage markets have been a strange animal lately.  Because nobody's 100% certain about the country's economic future, markets -- and therefore rates -- are moving like Elaine Benes.

The catalyst for rate changing is when market sentiment makes a wide shift.  Since late-June, there's been 5 such days on which sentiment has gone favorable toward bonds.

Assuming 37.5 basis points to equate to roughly 0.125% in rate, we can see how the rallies have been good for rate shoppers.  Remember, rates and prices move in opposite directions so when prices go up, rates go down.

But we're not here to talk about the good days. We're here to talk about the bad days -- the days after.  For rate shoppers, it's rarely pretty.  After one day in Rally Mode, lately, the next day is a near-complete give-back.  Rates surge.

So, when you're shopping for mortgage rates, consider taking Kenny Rogers to heart.  Know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em.

If mortgage markets are rallying, it may be time to metaphorically walk away.  Lock that mortgage rate with your loan officer and preserve your in-the-rally pricing.  As trading patterns are showing, your next day pricing won't be nearly as favorable.

If you don't have the means to track when rates are in Rally Mode, and I can add you to my Rate Watch program. It's a program specifically designed to monitor mortgage rate locks and lock at a favorable juncture.  It's free to participate so if you know you're going to need a mortgage soon, I encourage you -- it's the best way to make sure your rate gets locked with the best possible timing.

Or, take a more passive approach to watching for rallies by following me on Twitter. I update my feed several times per day.