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Maybe now we can say that housing has bottomed?

After 3 years of disastrous data, 19 of the 20 markets tracked by Case-Shiller improved last month -- the 5th straight month of strong data and the index's strongest showing in 3-plus years.

This is definitely something for the news van.

That said, the Case-Shiller Index remains an imperfect gauge:

1. It's limited to 20 U.S. cities, representing just 9% of the U.S. population.
2. It's on a 2-month lag, reflective of how housing was, not how it is
3. It ignore locality, grouping city neighborhoods into one big lump.

Despite its flaws, though, the Case-Shiller Index remains relevant to an improving economy.

When housing cracks first started formed in 2005 and 2006, Wall Street doubled down its bets despite Case-Shiller calling for an all-out catastrophe of biblical proportions.  Turns out, both sides were wrong, but Case-Shiller earned a ton of street cred from its call.

Today, the Case-Shiller Index is the de facto barometer for home values nationwide.

Getting back to June data, because Case-Shiller says home prices are -- in its own words -- "on an upswing", we can assume it means good things for the housing market, in general.

For home buyers, however, the news may not be so welcome.  The combination of a soon-to-expire $8,000 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit and a rebounding housing market means that competition for properties should increase, creating bidding wars and higher home prices.

If you're on the fence about buying a home or wondering if the time is right, according to Case-Shiller, the "right time" may have been 2 months ago.  With prices on the upswing, homes may only get more expensive.

For a pre-approval letter, and I'll get you started.

For the second consecutive month, mortgage lenders issued 100-plus rate sheets in a 60 day period. That's 2.36 rate sheets per day, or roughly 0.64 less than the Magic Number.  It's a ridiculously high number in the context of mortgage market history.

But for all the mayhem, rates aren't changing much.  Since mid-June, they've been bound in a small cage, walled in between 4.875 and 5.625 percent.   Today's market is all about timing.

In some respects, mortgage rats are behaving like a cross between an express elevator and an escalator.

They're like an express elevator in that, when rates are rising, they head straight up, bypassing the floors in between.  The 4- and 5-rate-sheet days are often "express elevators"-type days.

On the way down, however, rates exhibit the more relaxed characteristics of an escalator -- relatively slow-paced and with landings platforms along the way.  As rates fall, it doesn't happen with the same kind of urgency.

In the markets, we've seen this happen twice in the last two weeks.

Mortgage rates will gently drop over the course of a week, shaving up to a half-percent and looking poised to drop some more.  Then, for whatever reason, the markets get spooked.

In the subsequent 90 minutes, rates take off and the gains are gone. You can't help but feel helpless against the market right now.

If you're looking for low rates, watching the market's every move is your best and only chance. And even then, there's no guarantee.  It's takes a little bit of luck, too.

So, as a guy who watches mortgage rates for a living, I'll say this: Unless you're willing to accept a higher rate than your most recent quote, you may not want to gamble on scoring a lower one.  An extra 1/8 percent adds up over time but, for some reason, it seems to add up much faster when you're wasting money instead of saving it.

Watch mortgage rate changes in near real-time via my feed on Twitter.

If you've never been on Twitter, it's simple. When you click through to follow me, Twitter will ask you to register for a free account. Do it. Then, whenever you log back into Twitter, you'll see my last series of updates on your "timeline". My tweets aren't always mortgage-related, but they'll give you a feel for whether rates are getting better or worse.

Or, make it more personal.  Call or and I'll put your loan application on "Rate Watch" for you.  We'll pick a target rate and when rates take that escalator down to where you want them, I'll get your rate lock committed on the spot.  You won't need to watch the markets -- I'll be doing it for you.

I manage mortgage rates for a lot of people and am happy to manage yours, too. .