At first glance, the July Existing Home Sales report was atrocious. Sales volume fell to 15-year lows, home supplies jumped 40 percent, and the press is beating the point to a pulp.

But, depending on your home's price tier, though, the news may not be so bad.  The real estate market is a tale of two price tiers.

Luxury Homes Recovering; First-Time Homes Flailing

For homeowners with property worth $1 million or more, the real estate market improved in July.  There's a number of reasons for this, and most of them are consistent with "an improving economy".

To make this argument, though, we must first make a very important assumption; that Americans buying homes worth $1,000,000 or more fall into one of four categories:

1. Holder of a large amounts of assets which makes annuity payments
2. Corporate-level executive with large salary
3. Highly-commissioned salesperson
4. Owner (or part-owner) or a highly-grossing business or practice

I make these assumptions because, as a loan officer, I know them to be mostly true. A homeowner will be approved for a mortgage without verifiable income and a $1,000,000 mortgage requires roughly $250,000 in adjusted gross income, assuming ordinary debts and deductions.

Now, although the economy is short on jobs and tight on credit, business spending has been improving for months.   The Fed has been highlighting this fact in its FOMC press releases, and just last quarter, business spending jumped 22 percent. And when businesses buy, corporations make money and salespersons get commissioned.

Just think. The Wynn in Las Vegas is remodeling 2,716 hotel rooms. That's a lot of purchasing and a lot of people are going to see bigger paychecks because of it. Bigger paychecks means more confidence in the future and a greater willingness to buy a new home.

Unfortunately, economics like this rarely trickle-down.

For Americans that don't directly benefit from business spending, therefore, Existing Home Sales data is worsening, relative.  Sales volume in the "starter home" categories are way down from June.  This is partly the result of the post-tax credit normalization, but also attributable to a dearth of W-2, salaried jobs.

Homeowners with property worth less than $1 million are seeing sales volume fall and sales supply rise. Home prices may start to lag within this price range.

Jumbo Mortgages Are Aiding The Luxury Home Markets

Coincidentally, the luxury housing is benefiting from the return of the jumbo mortgage market. It's a lot easier to buy a home when there's financing available for it.

Since mid-May, jumbo mortgage rates on ARMs have come way down, and financing has opened up in the 30-year fixed and 15-year fixed arena.  Downpayment requirements are loosening, too.

Just six months ago, you might have needed 30% downpayment at minimum to get a competitive mortgage rate on $1 million or more.  Today, it's 20 percent.

Furthermore, underwriting guidelines are loosening around credit scores, asset requirements, and loan purpose.

Overall, it's simpler to qualify for jumbo mortgages than in recent quarters.  This may be another reason why the luxury home market is thriving.

Your Bank May Not Offer Jumbo Mortgages

Jumbo loans are available, but that doesn't mean that every bank will offer them, or assign them competitive interest rates.  Make at least two calls before you settle on a particular rate-and-program because fees will vary. Then, if your bank makes you pay a point, .

You should be able to get excellent rates without points in the jumbo market right now. Remember -- each point equals 1 percent of your loan size.  Or, in the case of a $1 million loan, $10,000 in fees.

Reach out anytime. I answer my own emails and will help you with your jumbo loan.

Mortgage Market Update For July 27 2010

Mortgage rates have been stupid-low lately, sparking the start of a Refi Boom.

This 96-second video covers a lot of ground:

• The hidden stats in June's Existing Home Sales report
• How move-up buyers are making the Fall Market
• Mortgage rates exhibiting the tell-tale signs of rising
• Timing rate locks for 30 days, 45 days or 60 days for lower fees
• The importance of returning your loan documents quickly

Refinance business is booming right now and purchase activity is close behind. If you're contemplating a mortgage and want to work with me, just . We can start working on your rate quote right away.

I gave a 2-part interview with Beejal Patel of First Business. This is the first part.

Beejal and I talk about the economy, home sales and mortgage rates.

• The tax credit extension to September 30, 2010
• Why the Existing Home Sales data is better than the "sales prices" show
• Mortgage rates are lower than what the media reports

The interview is 3 minutes and we cover a lot of ground.  Call or with your follow-up questions, or to lock a mortgage rate as soon as possible.

Click here to watch Part II of the interview.

The last two years have been rough on housing in a chain reaction-kind of way.

First, mortgage guidelines tightened, preventing some homeowners from ditching onerous ARM products.  That sparked a foreclosure boom that led to large losses on Wall Street.  In turn, it sank the U.S. economy.

Today, as compared to 3 years ago, foreclosures are way up, home values are way down, and mortgage rates are as low as they've ever been. It's wonderful news for home buyers -- there's a plentiful supply of homes and financing is cheap. Home affordability is near all-time highs.

But the market is changing.

Massive, sustained government stimulus has helped reverse the economy's slide.  There's still some rough patches, but overall, prospects look bright for 2010.

In housing, we can already see the improvement:

• The supply of new homes is down 40 percent this year
• The number of existing home sales are soaring in Cincinnati and other markets
• Pending home sales are as high as they've been since 2006

Furthermore, home prices are on the rise in the majority of U.S. markets.

The Buyers Market is over, folks. If you bought a home in February 2009, pat yourself on the back -- you timed the market bottom perfectly.  Both home prices and mortgage rates were troughing that month.  Since then, however, it's been a steady erosion and home seller are psyched about it.

For today's home buyers, mortgage rates remain low and home prices have a lot farther to climb.  Homebuying conditions may not be as perfect as they were 9 months, but, as compared to what we'll see next year, they're pretty excellent.  Especially because mortgage rates will cross 6 percent soon.

You can't lock a mortgage rate before you've found a home, but you can get prequalified and fast-tracked for one. Call or for a rate quote and help with your homebuying.  I answer all of my own emails and my rates are very, very good.

Sometimes, you have to look deeper than the headline to get the full story.

As reported by the National Association of REALTORS®, the number of Existing Home Sales fell last month, ending the report's 5-month winning streak.

Some newspapers are calling it a "setback" for housing.  Others are questioning the comeback.

Rest easy, folks.  August happened to be a terrific month for housing -- despite what the press says.

The Existing Home Sales report has 3 parts to it:

• Total sales volume
• Median sales price
• Overall housing supply

Of the three, housing supply is paramount to the long-term strength of the market. The other two are periphery.  It really doesn't matter how many homes are selling, or at what price they're selling.  What's more important is the ratio of home buyers to home sellers.

Not enough buyers and home prices fall.  Too many buyers and home prices rise.  The former led us into the housing doldrums, and now the latter is leading us out.

Between July and August 2009, existing home supply fell by nearly an entire month and, since peaking 9 months ago, supply is down 23%.

Furthermore, the supply of new homes is down, too, off 34 percent on the year.

Housing supply helps us statistically define "Buyers' Market" and "Sellers' Market" and, right now, the Buyers' Market looks like its ending.  If you've encountered a multiple-offer situation, you know exactly what I'm talking about, too.

The combination of low mortgage rates, relatively cheap homes and timely tax credits turned the housing market around this year and there's more gains ahead --  no matter what the papers say.

With home supply keeps falling, a full housing recovery is just around the bend.

(Post licensed by and adapted from Bring the Blog)

The housing industry's had a rough few years. Foreclosures are way up, home values are way down, and -- pardon my french -- but mortgage underwriters are so tight that if you stuck a lump of coal up their fist, in two weeks you'd have a diamond.

For home buyers, though, the "bad news" has come with a tremendous upside.

In housing, the basic law of Supply and Demand bestowed upon buyers an unbelievable amount of negotiation leverage.  Want a lower sales price? Just ask for it. Need your closing costs paid for? Write it into your offer letter. Want a quick closing? Sure, whatever you need.

But the Buyer Heyday may be over.  At least, that's what recent data suggests:

• The supply of new homes is falling at a precipitous pace
• Existing home sales are soaring in Cincinnati and other markets
• Home buyer activity is strong on all fronts -- first-time, move-up, and investor.

Furthermore, home prices are on the rise across a wide band of U.S. markets -- the smoking gun that the Buyers' Market is ending.

For now, mortgage rates remain low and the government is still supporting first-time home buyers with a generous tax credit.   If you're on the fence about buying a home or what to do next, call or .  I'd like to be your loan officer and if by chance I'm not licensed in your particular state, I'll point you to somebody that is.

The housing industry's had a rough few years.  Foreclosures are way up, home values are way down, and -- pardon my french --  but mortgage underwriters are so tight that if you stuck a lump of coal up their fist, in two weeks you'd have a diamond.

The upside of it all is that today's home buyers have an unprecedented amount of negotiation leverage with the sellers.  Want a lower sales price? Just ask for it.  Need your closing costs paid for? Put it in your offer letter.  Want to close in 30 days?  The world is your oyster.

A look at the recent statistics, though, suggests the market is morphing.

• Sales of new homes are rising at the fastest clip in a decade
• The supply of existing homes is falling month-by-month
• Home buyer activity continues to surge

Furthermore, home prices are no longer falling in many U.S. markets.

So, all this to say, if it hasn't happened already, home buyers are about to lose their upper-hand with their sellers.  And when they do, buying a home won't be nearly the "deal" it may feel like today.  Especially once mortgage rates head back up and the $8,000 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit meets its December 1 expiration date.

After all that, home sellers will be back in the proverbial driver seat, moving homes for more money and with fewer concessions.  Indeed, housing data suggests that this is happening in some markets already.

They say today's housing market is a Buyer's Market.  Well, it's only a buyer's market if you actually buy.

If you're thinking about buying but are on the fence about what to do next, call or .  I'm happy to work with you and, if I'm not licensed in your particular state, I can definitely point you in the right direction.