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Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 80% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 10% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 10% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching Neil Young sing the theme song to The Fresh Prince of Bel Air than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Mortgage rates, like everything else, are cheap this holiday season."

The U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending.  Spending is the catalyst for all things good.  Without spending, the economy idles and, right now, spending is flat.  Sure, the housing market is improving and so are the banks, but an economic recovery won't be proclaimed until everyday Americans start spending cash.

Consumer spending is down and trending lower. Retailers know it, too.

Tight purse strings explain why "Black Friday" specials started a full week early at Amazon, and why stores are discounting more than usual this year.  Anything to part a person from his paycheck.

Despite the deals and promos, however, consumers will spend less this season. Joblessness is high and shoppers are cautious. The lack of register receipts will hold the economy in place, which is to say that growth will remain tempered.

For mortgage rate shoppers, this is a good thing.

See, ever since Fed Chairman Bernanke's March 2009 interview with 60 Minutes, the one in which he metaphorically observed "green shoots" in the economy, Wall Street has been betting on recovery.  First, they thought it would come in summer.  Then, in fall.

Now, expectations are delayed again.

So long as our nation's economic future is in doubt, mortgage markets will benefit from safe haven buying. More demand means lower rates, and, by extension, cheaper home financing.

A year ago Thanksgiving, mortgage rates reached an all-time low.  We're approaching those same all-time levels again.  But unlike last year, rates should stay low for longer than an hour or two.

Mortgage rates will remain beat down until consumer spending returns.

My advice to homeowners?  Talk to your loan officer about a refinance. Don't worry about your equity, your job, your closing costs, or anything else for that matter -- just make the phone call and evaluate your options. You can always say "no".

Based on today's rates, though, I have a sneaking suspicion you'll want to say "yes".

If you don't have a loan officer and/or don't want to call your current lender's toll-free support center, just with some notes on your home loan and I'll bounce back with some answers for you.

I handle my emails personally and my rates are excellent.

Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It is not specific to Cincinnati, nor does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or super jumbo mortgages. For a personal rate offer, .

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 16% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 25% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 59% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I am setting the trend, predicting that mortgage rates will decrease over the next 30 days.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, watching this hidden-camera, cruel-tricks-on-kids video may be a better use of your time than reading my commentary.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Rates drift lower into the start of the Holiday Shopping season."

With Summer over and trading volume back to full strength, the market is turning a corner.  It's increasingly clear that economy bottomed out sometime between February and May and Wall Street is no longer waiting for the other economic shoe to drop.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke validated this position, saying the recession is "very likely over".

• Housing markets are rebounding with force; values are up in many markets.
• Retail Sales are plowing ahead, ahead of expectations
• Consumer confidence is rising ahead of schedule

Despite the positive signals, though, investors are wanting to see more strength from the jobs market. Unemployment remains high and job creation is still a net negative month-over-month.  Until Americans get back to work, consumer spending is likely to be tempered and that's a Big Elephant.

Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy.  No jobs, no spending.  And, meanwhile, the Holiday Shopping season is about to start.

It'll be 4 weeks until the next retail sales report.  Until then, expect Wall Street to take a cautious approach to calls for recovery.  The framework is there, but the work's not done.  It'll take a sustained boost in consumer spending to convince the street that the recession is dead for good.

For now, mortgage rates remain bouncy, with a general bias to the downside.  There will be "up days" and "down days", but if you can afford to be patient for a few weeks, it may pay dividends.  Especially because the Federal Open Market Committee is meeting next week and there's sure to be some volatility around the event.

As a layperson, you can't get access to real-time mortgage rates like I can so, if you're trying to make good rate locking decisions, consider hiring me as your loan officer. I track rates on a real-time basis and am happy to share what I know. It's news you can't get from the papers or from TV.

Plus, my rates are good.

If you're not already committed to a loan officer, or call me so we can work together.  I'd welcome it.