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The Mortgage Rate Prediction For The Next 7 Days (June 17, 2010)

Posted on June 17, 2010
Filed under Rate Surveys

Looking to lock a mortgage rate? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Forecast Only

By way of disclosure, the Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA streamline refinances nor is the survey specific to mortgage rates in Cincinnati or Philadelphia, for example. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and the 5-10 Properties program may be excluded.

Mortgage rate predictions for the week of June 17 2010for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the survey panel's mortgage rate predictions:

  • 35% predict mortgage rates will increase
  • 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
  • 65% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this hastily made tourism video for Cleveland.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"With the Fed meeting next week, markets move to wait-and-see mode."

It's all quiet on the Wall Street front until next Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve Meets Next Week

The Federal Open Market Committee begins a scheduled 2-day meeting next Tuesday.  It's one of 8 meetings for the year and there's absolutely no expectation for the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate.

That doesn't mean mortgage rates won't change, however.

The Federal Reserve is the nation's Central Banker, setting monetary policy for the banks and business, and, ultimately, that policy trickles down to consumers in the form of Cost of Living adjustments, credit card borrowing rates, and mortgage rates.

Since December 2008, the Fed has kept the Fed Funds Rate in a target range of near 0.000 percent.  In doing so, it's helped stimulate the economy and, on record, the recession that the Fed's move was meant to lessen, did actually end at some point mid-2009.

Why Rates Won't Move Until Bernanke Has Spoken

Although the Fed won't raise the Fed Funds Rate, it can still make a big impact with its post-meeting press release.  The press release highlights the strengths, weaknesses and threats to the economy as seen by the Federal Reserve.

Lately, economic data is conflicting.  Jobs look strong, then weak.  Inflation looks weak, then strong. Manufacturing is all over the map.  And that's just here at home.

Globally, there's nations in massive debt and reeling.  And there's others that are moving to constrain their growth.

For safety, Wall Street is squaring is bets in advance of the Fed's meeting. There won't be much activity between now and Wednesday.

I think.

Recommendation : Float Cautiously

Despite the next half-week's lull, don't turn your back on the market for a second.

One of the hallmarks of mortgage markets is its propensity to change rapidly, and without notice. We've seen it more than a few times already this year and Mortgage Rate Velocity remains extremely high.

Unless you're shopping for a jumbo mortgage, or in need of an interest mortgage, there's very little reason to lock.  Conforming rates should stay calm.  Use the "downtime" to get your mortgage application into a loan officer because once the Fed does adjourn, rates should move quickly.

Applications-by-phone are a 4-minute process. To give one, call my office at 513-443-2020 or .


Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

Tags: Bankrate. com, Cleveland Tourism, federal reserve, mortgage rates

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