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Bad news for Cincinnati rate shoppers and home buyers -- mortgage rate volatility is back.

Last month, mortgage lenders issued nearly 2 rate sheets per day on average, the most rate sheets per day since August and the first increase since June when mortgage rates rose into the 6s.

So what is a rate sheet?  It's a mortgage lender's real-time mortgage pricing.

Rate sheets list the current rate-and-fee combinations for mortgage products like the 30-year fixed, the jumbo loans, the FHA product line, and the like.  And, as you can see from the chart, pricing is always changing. Just like stocks, you can't buy mortgage rates for the same price tomorrow as you can today.

Since reaching an all-time low November 30, 2009, mortgage rates have changed 45 times.

So, throw away that Good Faith Estimate you got last month and delete the one you were sent last week.  Heck, get rid of the ones from yesterday.

If that Good Faith Estimate in your inbox is more than 4 hours old,  shred it and forget it -- its listed rate-and-fees are old news.  Once a mortgage lender's updated its rate sheets, all prior sheets get relegated to the garbage.

Expect volatility through the winter months.

With the economy recovering and the Fed withdrawing its mortgage market support, the exit tube is going to be a bumpy one.  Mortgage rates are going to be all over the place.

As a loan officer, I watch real-time mortgage market data that's not published to CNBC, the Wall Street Journal or Forbes. If you need to know what mortgage rates are doing, you need to be watching my Twitter stream, or following me on Facebook. I post regular updates and tend to alert before the lenders change their pricing for the worse.

If you need to know when to lock your rate, make sure you're getting my updates.

Furthermore, if you're actively rate shopping for a home in Cincinnati, Chicago, or somewhere else that I lend, make sure you're getting my rate quotes. Because I work for a self-funded bank, my rates and fees are often less than my broker peers and especially better than the correspondents.

Be sure to ask me for . I love to work with my readers.

It's a terrific time to shop for a mortgage. Rates are scraping all-time lows and MBS volatility is fading.  Mortgage rates are changing every 5 hours on average -- a molasses pace as compared to June and the slowest rate since March.

Slow and low.  That is the tempo. And it suits rate shoppers just fine.

Mortgage rate volatility is a function of Wall Street.  The more skittish the investors, the more volatile the rates. This is why mortgage rates changed at break-neck speeds in October 2008, and again in June 2009.  These two periods, in particular, represented the dueling pinnacles of fear -- fear of depression in the case of the former, and fear of inflation in the case of the latter.

Today, Wall Street is convinced that the U.S. economy is in stasis pending the return of jobs and consumer spending.

Until jobs returns, or until news convinces investors otherwise, mortgage rates should remain somewhat stable. This isn't to say that rates won't rise, but if they do, you won't have to get frantic about it.  You'll have an hour or two to get your rate lock in.

Two months ago, that wouldn't have been the case -- you'd have had 8 minutes.

Meanwhile, it's tough to keep up with mortgage rates in real-time because there's a lack of public feeds.  Get the next best thing, then, by friending me on Facebook or following me on Twitter.  I post as-it-happens mortgage rate updates all day long.  If you want to be warned before lenders hike rates, make sure to follow me.

And if you want a rate quote -- conventional, FHA, VA or otherwise --  and I'll see what I can do for you.  I answer all of my own emails and my rates are very low as compared to brokers and banks.

Mortgage rates aren't changing as quickly as they did this summer, but they're still changing pretty quickly.

Over the last two month, on average, lenders have updated pricing every 4 hours, 11 minutes. Over the last week, it's 3 hours, 20 minutes.

It's tough to shop for mortgage rates at a time like this.

Look, I'm a guy who studies mortgage markets for a living so consider my advice for when you're rate shopping.  Unless you're willing accept a higher mortgage rate, stop trying to beat the market for a lower one. More often than not, you're going to lose.

This is especially true because mortgage rates tend to rise a lot faster than they fall.  We even having a saying about it in the business: Mortgage rates take the elevator up and the escalator down.

Therefore, as you're doing your rate shopping, remember that saving money is saving money and there's almost never a reason to hold out for that extra 1/8 percent.  An 1/8 percent equates to a nominal amount of money that won't change your retirement or fund your next home improvement project.  Moral victories aren't worth gambling for.

Mortgage rates change.  That's what they do.  So if you're in the market for one, it helps to know what the market's doing.

You have two ways to stay on top of rates in near-real time.

1. Follow me on Twitter.
2. Fan this blog on Facebook.

Or, let's make it more personal.

Call or and we can talk about your mortgage rates needs. I'm licensed in a lot of states and if I can't help you personally, I'm happy to direct you to someone that can.

Either way, get a move on. In just a few hours, that rate quote you're staring at is going to be expired.

It appears that shopping for a mortgage rate isn't getting any simpler.  For the 3rd consecutive 60-day period, mortgage lenders issued 2-plus rate sheets per day on average and rates changed once every 3 hours, 54 minutes.

That's fast.

But for all of those updates, rates haven't really changed that much.

Since mid-June, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have remained range-bound, walled in pretty tightly between 4.875 and 5.625 percent with 0 points.  They broke higher for an afternoon in June and fell below for a morning in July, but other than that, rates have held pretty tight.

Don't confuse "range-bound" for "stagnant", though.  Au contraire, rates are jumpy as all get out.

Mortgage rates are still following the pattern of rising quickly, then falling slowly.  How good of a rate you get depends on the date you lock and even then, there's a little bit of luck involved.

So, as a guy who watches mortgage rates for a living, I'll say this -- unless you're willing to accept a higher rate, don't gamble on scoring a lower one.  Rates are moving too quickly to win a bet like that.  Sure, an extra 1/8 percent against your rate will add up over time but, for some reason, it seems to add up faster when your rate ticks higher instead of lower.

To keep up with rate sheet changes, watch my feed on Twitter.  I post near-time rate updates and that should help you make better loan decisions.

If you've never been on Twitter, it's simple.

1. Click through to follow me
2. Register on Twitter for your free account
3. Bookmark Twitter and revisit the site regularly

Each time you go back to Twitter's main site, right there in your main screen, you'll see my series of updates, front-and-center.  My tweets aren't always mortgage-related, but the ones that are will give you a good sense of whether rates are getting better or worse.

Or, make it more personal. Call or so we can talk about your situation and your mortgage rates needs.  I'm licensed in a lot of states and if I can't help you personally, I can direct you to someone that can.

Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or foreign national mortgages. For rate quotes, .

The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 31% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 23% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 46% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I predict that rates will remain unchanged over the next 30 days.

My advice not even be appropriate for your particular situation and I'm not always accurate besides.  Heck, you may find your time better spent watching this archive of 100 numbers in 100 films versus reading what's below.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"ARMs get cheap, FRMs stay collared. Plan accordingly."

It's a theme we've been talking about for a few days now.  Even as fixed rate mortgage get more expensive in terms of interest rates and points, adjustable-rate mortgages are getting cheaper.  This is partly reflective of the long-term growth outlook for the U.S. economy versus the near-term lack-of-growth outlook.

Inflation concerns and a weakening dollar are playing a part, too.

It's a role reversal from what we saw over a 6-month period earlier this year as the 30-year fixed rate mortgage handily beat the 5-year ARM in head-to-head pricing.  Today, ARMs are cheaper and should continue to improve relative to their fixed-rate counterpart.

In August, expect the 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages to be volatile, but trading within the same ranges as they have been.  Some days up, some days down, but overall flat-ish.

ARMs, on the other hand, should ease lower by a tad.

The important thing to remember is that mortgage rates are in constant flux.  It's impossible to time for a market bottom because of it.  However, you can improve your chances of locking a mortgage rate on "a good day".  The key is to be prepared before rates actually dip.

I run a program called Rate Watch.  The gist is that I'll take your full credit application including income, assets, social security number, andemployment history.  I'll use that information to get you a preliminary mortgage approval and we'll know exactly for what rates you qualify. Then, when rates dip -- and they will dip again -- I can lock up your rate for you on the spot.

Consider how short-lived a mortgage market rally can be these days, if you know a refinance is in your future, and we'll get you started.

Or, if you prefer to watch mortgage rates from the sidelines to act on low rates later, follow me on Twitter. I post market updates throughout the day.  Send a message to @mortgagereports so I know you're listening.

For the second consecutive month, mortgage lenders issued 100-plus rate sheets in a 60 day period. That's 2.36 rate sheets per day, or roughly 0.64 less than the Magic Number.  It's a ridiculously high number in the context of mortgage market history.

But for all the mayhem, rates aren't changing much.  Since mid-June, they've been bound in a small cage, walled in between 4.875 and 5.625 percent.   Today's market is all about timing.

In some respects, mortgage rats are behaving like a cross between an express elevator and an escalator.

They're like an express elevator in that, when rates are rising, they head straight up, bypassing the floors in between.  The 4- and 5-rate-sheet days are often "express elevators"-type days.

On the way down, however, rates exhibit the more relaxed characteristics of an escalator -- relatively slow-paced and with landings platforms along the way.  As rates fall, it doesn't happen with the same kind of urgency.

In the markets, we've seen this happen twice in the last two weeks.

Mortgage rates will gently drop over the course of a week, shaving up to a half-percent and looking poised to drop some more.  Then, for whatever reason, the markets get spooked.

In the subsequent 90 minutes, rates take off and the gains are gone. You can't help but feel helpless against the market right now.

If you're looking for low rates, watching the market's every move is your best and only chance. And even then, there's no guarantee.  It's takes a little bit of luck, too.

So, as a guy who watches mortgage rates for a living, I'll say this: Unless you're willing to accept a higher rate than your most recent quote, you may not want to gamble on scoring a lower one.  An extra 1/8 percent adds up over time but, for some reason, it seems to add up much faster when you're wasting money instead of saving it.

Watch mortgage rate changes in near real-time via my feed on Twitter.

If you've never been on Twitter, it's simple. When you click through to follow me, Twitter will ask you to register for a free account. Do it. Then, whenever you log back into Twitter, you'll see my last series of updates on your "timeline". My tweets aren't always mortgage-related, but they'll give you a feel for whether rates are getting better or worse.

Or, make it more personal.  Call or and I'll put your loan application on "Rate Watch" for you.  We'll pick a target rate and when rates take that escalator down to where you want them, I'll get your rate lock committed on the spot.  You won't need to watch the markets -- I'll be doing it for you.

I manage mortgage rates for a lot of people and am happy to manage yours, too. .

A "rate sheet" is a mortgage lender's official pricing menu and for the first time since November 2008 -- a month marked by financial market hysteria -- mortgage lenders issued 100 separate rate sheets over the last 2-month period.

Accounting for weekends and holidays, that's 2.38 rate sheets per day on average, or roughly 0.38 more than the number of meatball sandwiches Johnny Utah is asked to buy for Angelo. Mortgage rate volatility is back in a big way, folks.

To put the pace of change in perspective, consider this:

• In the last 60 days, lenders issued 4 or more rates sheets in a day once per week
• In the last 1 year, lenders issued 4 or more rates sheets in a day once per month

The last 2 months have been a mortgage rate whirlwind.  For homeowners and home buyers in places like Cincinnati and Chicago, it's been difficult to zero in on mortgage rates and lock them in.  With rates are "expiring" every 2 hours 57 minutes, it's enough to make a person want to go back in time to, say, February and March.

The good news here, though, is that the recent volatility may be a signal that mortgage rate collusion among Big Bank Lenders is ending.

There's no evidence to support a claim like this, but for a very long while, rates trended tightly among the biggest players with very little difference in rates or points. Then, starting about 10 days ago, pricing started to open up a bit; to separate from bank to bank.

The volatility we've seen lately may really just be the return of competitive pricing to the mortgage space.  This idea is backed by the VIX -- otherwise known the "Fear Index".  The VIX is currently at its lowest levels since the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Or, deferring to Occam's Razor, mortgage rates may be jumpy because there's still a lot of uncertainty about the U.S. economy.

Either way, life is tough for home buyers and people wanting to refinance.

As a guy who sees rates change all the time and without much notice, I'll say this: unless you're prepared to accept a higher rate that what you've just been quoted, you may not want to gamble on getting a lower one.  An eighth-of-a-percent can add up over time but for some reason, it seems to add up a lot faster when you're wasting money instead of saving it.

If you don't have the means to watch mortgage rate changes in real-time, consider following me on Twitter.

Now, if you've never been on Twitter, it's seriously simple.  When you go to follow me, Twitter will ask you to register for a free account.  Do it.  Then, whenever you log back into Twitter, you'll see my last series of updates.  It will give you a feel for whether rates are improving or worsening.

As stock markets finish a quarter marked by high volatility, mortgage pricing seems to have settled down a bit. Last month, for the first time in more than a year, mortgage lenders held their morning pricing all the way through market close.

This is an odd development, though; incongruent with market data. Since March, mortgage markets have been exposed to massive government intervention, the emergence of both a Bull and Bear stock market, and countless questions about the health of the economy.

Normally, this would cause mortgage rates to bounce all over the place. Last month, it didn't.

And while there's no evidence for proof, this loan officer thinks rates are suddenly less volatile because lenders aren't pricing loans on razor-thin margins anymore.  As bond markets pressured bond prices lower in March, mortgage lenders chose to hold their rates up, and pocket the difference as profit.

It's like a gas station keeping pump prices high as the cost of oil falls.

In the minds of rate shoppers, rate sheets aren't changing much, creating the semblance of mortgage market stability.  This point is illustrated in the graph above.  The reality, though, is something entirely different. Mortgage markets have been extremely volatile lately and we may someday find out that lenders left rate sheets as-is last month because the printed price guides had already been stuffed thick with profits meant to withstand market shock.

Rates are changing every 5 hours, 32 minutes on average. This is two hours longer versus January.

The good news here is that home buyers and refinancing homeowners don't have to rush to get their pricing locked up as quickly are they to. The bad news is that today's rates may be artificially pumped up.

At least 3 days per week, data from January and February 2009 shows, mortgage rates changed at least twice daily. 

Lest you think that's a rapid rate of change, scroll down the list and you'll recognize that last month came courtesy of the The Slowskys. There's been a marked reduction in mortgage rate volatility lately.

In January, mortgage rates changed every 3 hours 28 minutes, on average. In February, it jumped to 5 hours, 15 minutes.  If you ask me, it's a little fishy.

Here's why.

Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds and bond trades -- like stock trades-- are based in a fundamental and technical analysis of the economy. This can include tangible evidence like data or government policy, but very often includes intangible factors, too, such as a trader's emotional response to market conditions.

We can't ignore the impact of these impossible-to-measure market influences which we often refer to as "gut feel" or "greed".  And traders know it.  It's the reason there's such a thing called the VIX Index, a living, breathing measurement of market volatility.  The VIX is set up in such a way that it's an actual numerical representation of the market uncertainty.

Therefore, we would expect that if mortgage rates are calming, the VIX would be calming, too.  This chart says otherwise.  The "Fear Index" is no lower today than it was in October and, back then, mortgage rates were far more volatile.

So, if mortgage rates aren't changing as quickly as the VIX Index would indicate, it may mean that lenders have already priced their rate sheets up and out of the market. They may do this for profit reasons, but at least one lender went on record as saying that it's raised interest rates to slow the flow of new business.

Ed: I wish I could find that story at http://www.housingwire.com. If you have the link, send it on.

In other words, mortgage rates appear to be padded right now because lenders are understaffed.  If you're shopping for a mortgage, that extra cushion serves as a tax on you and it's nearly universal from lender-to-lender.  The good news, though, is that because the padding exists, mortgage rates stay within a tight range

Regardless, there's still good reason to get your rate locked in.  9 of them, really. 

If you're shopping for a mortgage right now, considering how many hundreds of thousands of people are losing their jobs without notice and how quickly some homes are losing value.  You're likely best-served by locking in the first fiscally-appropriate, low-rate mortgage that comes your way. Sure, rates may improve if you wait, but there's a lot of things that can go wrong while you're standing by.

Remember, you can always refinance again later if conditions warrant it.

As quickly as markets change, you can't possibly keep up on your own. Consider following me on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/mortgagereports.  I tend to post market updates a few times daily and, of course, anytime you want a rate quote, just call or email me.  I lend in all 50 states.

Mortgage rate volatility returned last month after a relatively slow December.  Multiple-rate-sheet days outnumbered single-rate-sheet days nearly 4-to-1.  For home buyers in Cincinnati and parts elsewhere, rapidly changing mortgage rates like this complicates the mortgage shopping process.

What is a rate sheet?  It's a mortgage lender's "price sheet"; its available-to-the-public mortgage rates for its products.  Products include 30-year fixed rate mortgages, 5-year ARMs, FHA loans, and the like.  If the bank offers it, it's on the rate sheet and when rate sheets change, by definition, mortgage rates change, too. 

Over the last two months, mortgage rates have changed 2.19 times per day on average, or nearly 11 rate changes per week.  This is why that rate quote you got two weeks ago means bupkus -- there have been twenty-two reprices since.

In January alone, mortgage rates "expired" every 3 hours, 28 minutes.

Meanwhile, contrast this pace of mortgage rate change with the pace earlier in the decade. Back then, it was rare for lenders to issue multiple rate sheets in a week let alone 4 of them in one day.  The new velocity has changed the dynamic of mortgage rate shopping. 

"Think on" that rate quote all you want, but it's not going to stop the ground from moving under your feet.  When the rate's gone, it's gone.

So, the next time you're in the market for mortgage take stock of these 9 very good reasons why it may be in your best interest to lock the first fiscally-appropriate, low-rate mortgage that comes your way.  The longer you wait it out, the more chance there is of that rate -- or your ability to get it -- to be gone.

Instead of shopping for mortgages every 3 hours, 28 minutes, therefore, consider a new approach.  Find a mortgage lender you know will treat you fairly.  Buddy up with him by email, or on Facebook, or Twitter, or by some other means.  And when you're ready for a mortgage rate quote, just ask for one. 

As quickly as markets change, you can't possibly keep up on your own and it helps to have a friend on the inside.  Anytime you want a rate quote, call or email me.  I lend in all 50 states.