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The economy shed another 80,000 jobs in March 2008, according to this morning's Non-Farm Payrolls report, and was 60% more than the initial estimate of 50,000. Add that to the revised January and February losses of 76,000 each and it appears that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was spot on when...
As the price of crude oil hovers near $108 per barrel, economists wonder how the economy will respond. There's talk of a complete economic shutdown; talk of gouging by oil companies; and talk of the need for government intervention. This is all old hat by now. With every crude oil...
If you're shopping for mortgages right now, or are in the process of buying a home, this week was not your buddy. In early-January -- right up until the surprise 0.750% cut to the Fed Funds Rate January 22 -- mortgage rates were the lowest that they'd been in three...
The economy shed 17,000 jobs in January 2008 according to this morning's Non-Farm Payrolls report. Because markets had expected a job gain of 70,000, the negative number supports the idea that the economy is slowing down faster than markets had planned. This is because when fewer people work, there are...
Using Google Trends, we can see that "recession" is overtaking "inflation" in import. Mortgage rates are highly dependent on inflation, and/or the absence of inflation. Because inflation erodes the value of the U.S. dollar, it also erodes the value of dollar-denominated mortgage bonds. This renders bonds less valuable to global...
If there's one thing that drives mortgage markets batty, it's uncertainty. When the economy is an undecided issue, investors don't know how to place their bets and it leads to volatility. One day, the markets lean to the left. The next day, they lean to the right. There's no real...
December's Non-Farm Payrolls report shows that the economy may (finally) be slowing. Mortgage rates are improving this morning in response. The two key take-aways from the jobs report were that: Monthly payroll gains averaged 111,000 per month in 2007 versus 186,000 in 2006 The Unemployment Rate reached 5.0% in December,...
The price of oil scraped $100 per barrel yesterday and the experts haven't stopped talking about what that will mean to the U.S. economy. Some say that it will push the economy into recession. That would be good for mortgage rates. Some say that it will push the economy into...
Real estate is a local phenomenon. Every street in the country has its own local real estate market and that's why "national sales data" is useless. A Cincinnati, Ohio home buyer doesn't (and shouldn't) care about property values in Boynton Beach, Florida. Cincinnati real estate is entirely different and is...
The blue line stands for Consumer Confidence, trending downwards throughout 2007. The red line stands for Retail Sales, trending upwards throughout 2007. Clearly, there's no connection because consumer surveys are supposed to measure how Americans feel about the broad economy and their personal economy over the near-term. If confidence levels...
This morning, the Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a net gain of 94,000 jobs in the month of November. Markets expected 70,000 new jobs created in November so today's data reflects strength in the U.S. economy. When more people are working, more people are earning money and, therefore, more people are...
Yesterday's Consumer Price Index showed a year-over-over increase of 3.5 percent in the Cost of Living. Markets, however, are rejoicing over the "core" inflation rate of 2.2 percent, saying it's tolerable. So what is "core CPI", you want to know. Well, core CPI is just like "regular" CPI except that...
The dollar is getting trounced today on word from China that the nation is favoring "stronger currencies over weaker ones". This opens the door for China to dump U.S. dollars into the open market, further eroding the dollar's value. So why does this matter to American homeowners? Mortgage rates are...
Because commodities are priced in U.S. dollars, a devaluation of the dollar causes commodity prices to rise. Business can choose to absorb this higher cost, or pass it on to consumers. At least one company is passing them on, creating inflationary pressures on the economy. As we talk about a...
Costco is celebrating Christmas. It's not even Halloween yet. By moving the Holiday Shopping season up by three weeks, I can't help but wonder how this might skew the Retail Sales data released for November and December. If consumers do their shopping now, Retail Sales should fall short of expectations...
This morning, the Non-Farm Payrolls reports showed a net gain of 110,000 jobs in the month of September and an upward revision on August's data. Markets expected some strength in the report, but not this kind of strength. Already, mortgage markets are down 28 basis points. Prior to this morning's...
After the Phillies dropped the first two at home, I should have known that this would happen, too. Not only did September's job data exceed expectations, but August's net loss of 4,000 jobs was revised higher to a net gain of 89,000. That's a bigger swing than Montpelier. Mortgage rates...
Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England left their respective interest rates on hold, relieving some of the pressure on the U.S. dollar. Had rates increased, it would have increased the relative return of investing in euro- or pound-denominated instruments versus investing in dollar-denominated instruments. This would...
The last Fed meeting just finished up, but markets are already looking ahead to the next one, a two-day affair October 30-31. If you'll remember, in the immediate aftermath of the Fed's announcement to lower the Fed Funds Rate by 0.500%, mortgage bonds were the hit of the party and...
This morning, the Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a net loss of 4,000 jobs in the month of August, its first net decline since 2003. Markets expected some weakness in the report, but not this kind of weakness. Already, mortgage markets are up 31 basis points today. That's a swift, powerful...
Crude oil crossed $78 per barrel today and is nearing its all-time high of $78.40. Meanwhile, gas prices are continuing on their drastic downward trajectory, according to gasbuddy.com. But, just because because gas prices aren't going up (right now), it doesn't mean that the run-up in crude oil is contained....
Two weeks ago, we discussed how markets may be pricing terror threats into bond markets, or ignoring them altogether. This was noted after a thwarted terrorist operation in London caused relatively no change in mortgage rates. Here's some more fodder for the Terrorism Decoupling From Mortgage Bonds hypothesis. Monday, headlines...
This morning, three economic data points are pointing to stability in the economy. However, while the data doesn't disprove an inflationary market, it's not showing enough of a slowdown to calm fears of it. It's kind of like my backyard. I can't see the weeds, but I know that they're...
As Retail Sales plunged 0.9% -- the steepest mark in two years -- and Consumer Sentiment surged by 8.3%, we have to (once again) question if the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is of any use at all. Assuming that there is a lag between a consumer's "improving feelings...
The price of crude oil briefly touched $76 last week and has since retreated to $72, but gas prices look like they're about to play a game of catch-up. After six weeks of declining fuel costs nationwide, the cost to fill a gas tank was up for the first time...
According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics' press release today, the following is true (but subject to revision in August and September): 132,000 new jobs were created in June versus expectations of 120,000 33,000 more jobs were created in May than previously measured 42,000 more jobs were created in...
After ADP had traders questioning the 120,000 non-farm payrolls estimate yesterday, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics reported this morning that 132,000 jobs were created in June. Like in every month, though, the bigger NFP story is what revisions were made to months prior. May revised 33,000 jobs higher to...
All day, mortgage rates were feeling pressure to move higher and then in the last two hours, the heat intensified. Many mortgage lenders are re-issuing rate sheets this afternoon to reflect the change in market dynamic. Rates are pressured partly because of the ADP jobs report released earlier today. The...
Last week's terrorist attacks in England barely moved markets in a surprising change from past attacks worldwide. Even as the country remains in "Criticial Alert" status, money is flowing to the U.K. on remarks from the Bank of England, and a foreshadowed interest rate increase. In the past, terrorism was...
Because of technical trading factors, prices on mortgage bonds plummeted last week, dropping more than 50 basis points overall. Mortgage rates are now at their highest levels in several months. And, unfortunately for home shoppers, it looks like the trend will continue for some time. Traders took special notice of...
After a week in which the Fed expressed concern that "inflation may fail to moderate as expected" and the dollar did little to emerge from a long-running funk, this could be the week that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey actually matters. Stop me if you've read this one...
When consumer spending slips, it can send shockwaves through the economy. Consumer spending, after all, makes up 70% of the economy. The best measure of consumer spending data is Retail Sales, a monthly figure describing how much money Americans are spending, and where they're spending it. Retail Sales unexpectedly fell...
So far today, a tepid response to the Non-Farm Payroll data. Against expectations of 100,000 jobs created in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a weak 88,000. March's figures were revised downward by 1.6%, reflecting additional (albeit small) weakness. The reaction today is different from months past. Over the...
Don't look now, but Bloomberg is talking to economists who say that $4.00 per gallon of gas is not out of the question. Core CPI showed just a 0.1% increase last month. This is less than forecasted and is normally a precursor to falling mortgage rates. If we add back...
Tomorrow is Good Friday and trading volume will be thin. That means that mortgage rates will be extra jumpy in the face of the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Right now, markets are expecting to see 120,000 new jobs created in March, but watching trading activity, many traders seem to be placing...
Thank heavens for a slow week on Wall Street because I have neglected you all these past few days. Don't take it personally, of course. Right now, it's all eyes on Friday and the non-farm payrolls report due at 7:30 A.M. CDT. After Bernanke's hawkish remarks on inflation last week,...
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey slipped to 88.4 in March, down from February's 91.3 and its lowest level in six months. We talk about the complete uselessness of the UofM survey quite a bit around these parts and today provides a terrific example that backs it up. Despite...
A little known fact about yesterday's CPI numbers: they weren't as inflationary as you would have otherwise thought. It all comes down to decimals and rounding. What The Headlines Reported CPI: 0.2% increase in January Core CPI: 0.3% increase in January What The Actual Figures Were CPI: 0.174% increase in...
With a plethora of impactful economic releases on tap for this week, don't be surprised if mortgage rates are as random as the Eagles' 4th-down playcalling while traders try to figure out the 2007 direction of the U.S. economy. Wednesday morning, the Producer Price Index will tell us if business...
Oil fell to $56 per barrel today. Lower prices should reduce winter heating bills and gas pump receipts for Americans. Money saved is money spent in this country so, if the price of crude continues to drop, we can expect the economy stay juiced with consumer dollars. Throw in a...
