17Jan2006
Dan Green
Author
Dan Green
Filed Under
Things That Change Mortgage Rates

How Gift Cards Skew Retail Sales Data In December

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HRetail Sales data does not count the sale of gift cards until after the gift card has been used and this skews Retail Sales data during the holiday shopping seasonAccording to December 2005 Retail Sales data, it was a sad Holiday Season for retailers this Christmas.

But don't starting think that high gas prices are taking a toll on spending.  Spending is doing just fine, thankyouverymuch.

See, Retail Sales data ignores in the most popular Holiday Season gift -- the gift card. 

Gift cards purchases are not actually put on the books until they're used to purchase actual goods.

Post-Christmas, when stores are full of shoppers toting gift cards, the Retail Sales data starts to register.  If you've been in Best Buy lately, you've seen it personally -- those holographic gift cards are everywhere

The cashing in of gift cards should boost to January's Retail Sales data nationally.

But there should be a secondary bump in January's Retail Sales data, too.

When a person redeems a $50 gift card, he rarely spends 50 dollars.  Maybe it's $55, or it's $70, or more.  Regardless, the store is booking more than $50 on that $50 card.  This is one reason why stores love the gift card -- the built-in upsell.

Until that upsell is recorded, though, Retail Sales data will continue to be flawed and/or somewhat "delayed".  Look for a strong January figure.

Dan Green
Author
Dan Green

About the Author

Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. Email Dan ator call 513-443-2020.

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