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HAccording to December 2005 Retail Sales data, it was a sad Holiday Season for retailers this Christmas.
But don't starting think that high gas prices are taking a toll on spending. Spending is doing just fine, thankyouverymuch.
See, Retail Sales data ignores in the most popular Holiday Season gift -- the gift card.
Gift cards purchases are not actually put on the books until they're used to purchase actual goods.
Post-Christmas, when stores are full of shoppers toting gift cards, the Retail Sales data starts to register. If you've been in Best Buy lately, you've seen it personally -- those holographic gift cards are everywhere.
The cashing in of gift cards should boost to January's Retail Sales data nationally.
But there should be a secondary bump in January's Retail Sales data, too.
When a person redeems a $50 gift card, he rarely spends 50 dollars. Maybe it's $55, or it's $70, or more. Regardless, the store is booking more than $50 on that $50 card. This is one reason why stores love the gift card -- the built-in upsell.
Until that upsell is recorded, though, Retail Sales data will continue to be flawed and/or somewhat "delayed". Look for a strong January figure.
Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. Email Dan ator call 513-443-2020.
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