Flash back to June 30, 2004.  The Fed Funds Rate was 1.000%.

June 30, 2004 was the date of the first of 17 consecutive increases to the Fed Fund Rate.  At the time, the 10-year treasury note was yielding 4.59%.

Today, with the FFR standing at 5.250%, the 10-year treasury is yielding 4.42% -- a drop of 17 basis points.

The FFR is the ultimate short-term interest rate; it's the cost to borrow money overnight, risk-free between banks.  The 10-year treasury, on the other hand, is longer-term.  In fact, it's like 10 consecutive years of overnight rates.  It's also considered to be risk-free.

Because the 10-year note is lower than the overnight rate, we can infer that markets believe the cost of overnight money will decrease over time, averaging 4.42% over 10 years.

Markets are already predicting with 60% probability that the FFR will be lower in March 2007 than it is today.

---

Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.