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Over the last week, markets have been tame. Despite data that would have moved rates earlier this month, the later it gets in December, the more markets seem to take a Wait-and-See approach.
I am not exactly sure what they are waiting to see, but then again, I am not a market. I am just a fat guy in a little coat.
Looking back at the data, GDP surprised a little bit lower this morning at 2.0% versus the projected figure of 2.2%. This may give credence to the Housing Will Lead The Slowdown theory because housing figures were similarly weak yesterday. Perhaps there's a connection after all.
On the other side, though, oil prices are charging higher and Core PPI more than quadrupled its expected figure (1.3% vs. 0.3%.). This would normally have charged rates higher. But, not today.
The lack of action in mortgage rates can be cross-referenced against the Fed Futures market. In the past 7 days, the probability that the Fed will move rates at its March meeting has remained unchanged at 78%. This tell us that inflation expectations are unchanged as well.
Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. Email Dan ator call 513-443-2020.
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