21Mar2007
Dan Green
Author
Dan Green
Filed Under
Federal Reserve

The Odds of Fed Funds Rate Changes (March 2007 Version)

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Prior to the FOMC's adjournment this afternoon, here is how markets are predicting the future levels of the Fed Funds Rate:

Fed Funds Rate After March Meeting:

  • 5.000: 4% probability for the FFR
  • 5.250: 96% probability for the FFR
  • 5.550: 0% probability for the FFR

Fed Funds Rate After May Meeting (no meeting in April):

  • 5.000: 10% probability for the FFR
  • 5.250: 90% probability for the FFR
  • 5.550: 0% probability for the FFR

Fed Funds Rate After June Meeting:

  • 4.750: 4% probability for the FFR
  • 4.500: 2% probability for the FFR
  • 5.000: 16% probability for the FFR
  • 5.250: 75% probability for the FFR
  • 5.550: 3% probability for the FFR

We'll revisit these predictions after the market has digested this afternoon's press release.

Source
Fed Fund Probabilities :: Current
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, March 21, 2007
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/policy/fedfunds/Index.cfm

Dan Green
Author
Dan Green

About the Author

Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. Email Dan ator call 513-443-2020.

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