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So far today, a tepid response to the Non-Farm Payroll data.
Against expectations of 100,000 jobs created in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a weak 88,000. March's figures were revised downward by 1.6%, reflecting additional (albeit small) weakness.
The reaction today is different from months past.
Over the last 12-18 months, weak jobs numbers sparked rallies in mortgage bonds. Today, by contrast, markets are taking the news in stride.
This is because traders may no longer believe that the Fed has its finger on the Rate Hike Trigger. The Fed's next step, traders believe, will be to ratchet the Fed Funds Rate lower.
In other words, traders are leaning towards market softness in the months ahead.
So, with the Fed's scheduled meeting next week, and with traders gambling on weaker economic growth, there isn't much upside risk to floating a mortgage rate over the next few days. The likelihood of mortgage rates increasing far outweighs the likelihood of them decreasing.
In its press release nextweek, if the Fed says it can continue to "be patient" while observing the economy, mortgage rates won't budge because that scenario is already priced in.
But, if the Fed states that it may have to increase the FFR to cope with rising wage pressures and inflation, mortgage rates will jump. Quickly.
Given the outlook for the next few days, it may make sense to lock your rate now.
Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. Email Dan ator click to get a free, no-obligation rate quote.
You can also find Dan on Twitter and Google+.
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