Is There Statistical Insignificance In The Jobs Report?

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According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics' press release today, the following is true (but subject to revision in August and September):

• 132,000 new jobs were created in June versus expectations of 120,000
• 33,000 more jobs were created in May than previously measured
• 42,000 more jobs were created in April than previously measured

So, in total, today's overall "surprise" was 87,000, measured against the total number of employed people (also in the BLS release) of 146,100,000.  In percentage terms, that's just 0.059548% of the overall workforce.

The revisions are statistically insignificant, especially considering that government press releases don't go beyond tenths with respect to decimal places.  If revision percentages were included in a government release, it would read something like this:

"Revisions to non-farm payroll jobs from months prior added 0.0% to the total number of employed persons".

Want to put 0.059548% in mathematical perspective?

• It's adding one more square foot to Zaremba's Harbor Walk Townhomes in Colorado
• It's adding one more seat to Krenzler Stadium in Cleveland
• It's adding one more pixel of width to this handsome guy's photograph

And yet, mortgage rates are higher today and economists are out chirping about ongoing economic strength.

To economists and traders, the "adding one more" makes an important difference so maybe we should all look at this as just one more example of how investor psychology can sometimes be more important that logical data analysis.